The Svensson versus McCallum and Nelson Controversy Revisited in the BMW Framework

This note shows that the Svensson versus McCallum and Nelson controversy battled in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Loius Review (September/ October 2005) can be mapped into a static version of a New Keynesian macro model that consists of an IS-equation, a Phillips curve and an inflation targeting central bank (e.g., Bofinger, Mayer, Wollmershäuser, (2006); Walsh (2002)). As a contribution to literature we supplement the controversy by a forceful graphical analysis. The general debate centers on the question by which notion monetary policy should be implemented. The two sides have fundamentally opposite views on this issue. Svensson argues for targeting rules as a notion of optimal monetary policy, whereas McCallum and Nelson promote simple instrument rules. In this note we systematically analyze these two categories of monetary policy rules. In particular we show that the rule discussed by McCallum and Nelson (2005) imposes different degrees of variability on the economy compared to a targeting rule when monetary policy falls prey to measurement error. To our opinion the hybrid Taylor rule developed by McCallum and Nelson contradicts the original idea of simple rules as a heuristic for monetary policy making and should be rebutted for practical reasons

Default Rates in the Loan Market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia

The current crisis raises the question whether loans to SMEs in emerging markets areinherently more risky. We use a unique unbalanced panel of nearly 700 loans made toSMEs in Slovakia between 2000 and 2005. Several probit and panel probit models showthat liquidity and profitability factors are important determinants of SME defaults.Moreover, we find that indebtedness significantly increases the probability of default.Finally, liability as proxied by the legal form of SMEs has important incentive effects.In sum, default rates and factors converged to values found in developed financialmarkets

Identifying Structural Shocks Behind Loan Supply Fluctuations in Russia

We examine the drivers behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia using Bayesian vector autoregressive model with sign restrictions on impulse response functions. We identify two types of structural innovations: loan supply shock and monetary stance shock. We find that contractionary shocks of both types contributed significantly and in the roughly equal measure to the decrease of bank lending after the Lehman Brothers collapse

Assessing Macro-Financial Linkages: A Model Comparison Exercise

The recent global financial crisis has increased interest in macroeconomic models that incorporate financial linkages. Here, we compare the simulation properties of five mediumsized general equilibrium models used in Eurosystem central banks which incorporate such linkages. The financial frictions typically considered are the financial accelerator mechanism (convex \spread costs related to firms' leverage ratios) and collateral constraints (based on asset values). The harmonized shocks we consider illustrate the workings and mechanisms underlying the financial-macro linkages embodied in the models. We also look at historical shock decompositions of real GDP growth across the models since 2005 in order to shed light on the common driving factors underlying the recent financial crisis. In these exercises, the models share qualitatively similar and interpretable features. This gives us confidence that we have some broad understanding of the mechanisms involved. In addition, we also survey the current and developing trends in the literature on financial frictions