Is Chinese Competition Causing Deindustrialization in Brazil?

There has been a lively debate in Brazil in recent years, involving sectors of business, the labor movement, and academics, over deindustrialization and the future of the manufacturing sector. This is often linked to the growing relation between Brazil and China, which is now the country’s most significant trade partner. Brazil has experienced relative deindustrialization in the sense of a declining share of the manufacturing sector in gross domestic product that is mainly attributable to the changes in the country’s trade balance in manufactures. The direct and indirect impacts of China on Brazilian manufacturing have contributed to this relative deindustrialization

Courting the South: Lula’s Trade Diplomacy

Scholarly consensus regarding Brazil's Lula government characterizes its economic policy as surprisingly conservative but its foreign policy as roughly in line with the traditionally leftist principles of the Workers' Party. While broadly accurate, this perspective tells us little about trade diplomacy, which cuts across these two policy areas. In this article we explain why Lula's trade diplomacy has hewed much more closely to his broader foreign policy strategy than his economic model, despite the critical role of trade in Brazil's recent economic growth. We argue that two key factors have lowered the costs of adopting a combative, South-South orientation, allowing Lula to use trade diplomacy as a tool for appealing to party loyalists. One is the inherently muted short-term impact of trade diplomacy on key macro-economic outcomes. The other is the failure of the traditional trading powers to offer the incentives necessary to successfully conclude the major North-South trade talks they had initiated