Generalised Rational Bias in Financial Forecasts

Asymmetric preferences, Distribution of forecasters, LinEx, Non-normality, Optimal forecasts, Skewed normal, G1, C5,

Bayesian Reinforcement Learning

This chapter surveys recent lines of work that use Bayesian techniques for reinforcement learning. In Bayesian learning, uncertainty is expressed by a prior distribution over unknown parameters and learning is achieved by computing a posterior distribution based on the data observed. Hence, Bayesian reinforcement learning distinguishes itself from other forms of reinforcement learning by explic- itly maintaining a distribution over various quantities such as the parameters of the model, the value function, the policy or its gradient. This yields several benefits: a) domain knowledge can be naturally encoded in the prior distribution to speed up learning; b) the exploration/exploitation tradeoff can be naturally optimized; and c) notions of risk can be naturally taken into account to obtain robust policies