Metastatic breast cancer incidence, site and survival in Australia, 2001-2016: A population-based health record linkage study protocol

Introduction: Advances in systemic therapy for early and metastatic breast cancer (BC) over the last two decades have improved patients’ survival, but their impact on metastatic disease outcomes at a population level is not well described. The aim of this study is to investigate changes in the incidence, site and survival of metastatic disease for women with a first diagnosis of BC in 2001– 2002 vs 2006–2007. Methods and analysis: Population-based retrospective cohort study of women with first primary invasive BC registered in the New South Wales (NSW) Cancer Registry in 2001–2002 and 2006–2007. We will use linked records from NSW hospitals, dispensed medicines, outpatient services and death registrations to determine: women’s demographic and tumour characteristics; treatments received; time to first distant metastasis; site of first metastasis and survival. We will use the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate cumulative incidence of distant metastasis, distant recurrence-free interval and postmetastasis survival by extent of disease at initial diagnosis, site of metastasis and treatment-defined tumour receptor type (hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2-positive, triple negative). We will use Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative effects of prognostic factors, and we will compare systemic therapy patterns by area-of- residence and area-level socioeconomic status to examine equity of access to healthcare. Ethics and dissemination: Research ethics committee approval was granted by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (#EO2017/2/255), NSW Population and Health Services (#HREC/17/CIPHS/19) and University of Notre Dame Australia (#0 17 144S). We will disseminate research findings to oncology, BC consumer and epidemiology audiences through national and international conference presentations, lay summaries to BC consumer groups and publications in international peer-reviewed oncology and cancer epidemiology journals

Tobacco smoking changes during the first pre-vaccination phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Globally, tobacco smoking remains the largest preventable cause of premature death. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced nations to take unprecedented measures, including ‘lockdowns’ that might impact tobacco smoking behaviour. We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses to assess smoking behaviour changes during the early pre-vaccination phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Methods: We searched Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/BioRxiv/MedRxiv/SSRN databases (January–November 2020) for published and pre-print articles that reported specific smoking behaviour changes or intentions after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used random-effects models to pool prevalence ratios comparing the prevalence of smoking during and before the pandemic, and the prevalence of smoking behaviour changes during the pandemic. The PROSPERO registration number for this systematic review was CRD42020206383. Findings: 31 studies were included in meta-analyses, with smoking data for 269,164 participants across 24 countries. The proportion of people smoking during the pandemic was lower than that before, with a pooled prevalence ratio of 0·87 (95%CI:0·79–0·97). Among people who smoke, 21% (95%CI:14–30%) smoked less, 27% (95%CI:22–32%) smoked more, 50% (95%CI:41%-58%) had unchanged smoking and 4% (95%CI:1–9%) reported quitting smoking. Among people who did not smoke, 2% (95%CI:1–3%) started smoking during the pandemic. Heterogeneity was high in all meta-analyses and so the pooled estimates should be interpreted with caution (I2\u3e91% and p-heterogeneity\u3c0·001). Almost all studies were at high risk of bias due to use of non-representative samples, non-response bias, and utilisation of non-validated questions. Interpretation: Smoking behaviour changes during the first phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 were highly mixed. Meta-analyses indicated that there was a relative reduction in overall smoking prevalence during the pandemic, while similar proportions of people who smoke smoked more or smoked less, although heterogeneity was high. Implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies and programs, including tobacco cessation services, have an important role in ensuring that the COVID-19 pandemic does not exacerbate the smoking pandemic and associated adverse health outcomes

Long-term psychological and quality-of-life effects of active surveillance and watchful waiting after diagnosis of low-risk localised prostate cancer

Background Long-term psychological well-being and quality-of-life are important considerations when deciding whether to undergo active treatment for low-risk localised prostate cancer. Objective To assess the long-term effects of active surveillance (AS) and/or watchful waiting (WW) on psychological and quality-of-life outcomes for low-risk localised prostate cancer patients. Design, setting, and participants The Prostate Cancer Care and Outcome Study is a population-based prospective cohort study in New South Wales, Australia. Participants for these analyses were low-risk localised prostate cancer patients aged \u3c70 yr at diagnosis and participated in the 10-yr follow-up. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Validated instruments assessed outcomes relating to six health-related quality-of-life and nine psychological domains relevant to prostate cancer patients. Adjusted mean differences (AMDs) in outcome scores between prostate cancer treatment groups were estimated using linear regression. Results and limitations At 9–11 yr after diagnosis, patients who started AS/WW initially had (1) higher levels of distress and hyperarousal than initial radiation/high-dose-rate brachytherapy patients (AMD = 5.9; 95% confidence interval or CI [0.5, 11.3] and AMD = 5.4; 95% CI [0.2, 10.5], respectively), (2) higher levels of distress and avoidance than initial low-dose-rate brachytherapy patients (AMD = 5.3; 95% CI [0.2, 10.3] and AMD = 7.0; 95% CI [0.5, 13.5], respectively), (3) better urinary incontinence scores than initial radical prostatectomy patients (AMD = –9.1; 95% CI [–16.3, –2.0]), and (4) less bowel bother than initial radiation/high-dose-rate brachytherapy patients (AMD = –16.8; 95% CI [–27.6, –6.0]). No other significant differences were found. Limitations include participant attrition, inability to assess urinary voiding and storage symptoms, and nonrandom treatment allocation. Conclusions Notwithstanding some long-term differences between AS/WW and various active treatment groups in terms of distress, hyperarousal, avoidance, urinary incontinence, and bowel bother, most long-term outcomes were similar between these groups. Patient summary This study assessed the long-term psychological and quality-of-life impacts of initially monitoring rather than actively treating low-risk prostate cancer. The results suggest that initial monitoring rather than active treatment has only a minor impact on subsequent long-term psychological and quality-of-life outcomes

De novo and recurrent metastatic breast cancer – A systematic review of population-level changes in survival since 1995

Background Advances in breast cancer (BC) care have reduced mortality, but their impact on survival once diagnosed with metastasis is less well described. This systematic review aimed to describe population-level survival since 1995 for de novo metastatic BC (dnMBC) and recurrent MBC (rMBC). Methods We searched MEDLINE 01/01/1995–12/04/2021 to identify population-based cohort studies of MBC reporting overall (OS) or BC-specific survival (BCSS) over time. We appraised risk-of-bias and summarised survival descriptively for MBC diagnoses in 5-year periods from 1995 until 2014; and for age, hormone receptor and HER2 subgroups. Findings We identified 20 eligible studies (14 dnMBC, 1 rMBC, 5 combined). Potential sources of bias in these studies were confounding and shorter follow-up for the latest diagnosis period. For dnMBC, 13 of 14 studies reported improved OS or BCSS since 1995. In 2005–2009, the median OS was 26 months (range 24–30), a median gain of 6 months since 1995–1999 (range 0–9, 4 studies). Median 5-year OS was 23% in 2005–2009, a median gain of 7% since 1995–1999 (range -2 to 14%, 4 studies). For women ≥70 years, the median and 5-year OS was unchanged (1 study) with no to modest difference in relative survival (range: -1·9% (p = 0.71) to +2·1% (p = 0.045), 3 studies). For rMBC, one study reported no change in survival between 1998 and 2006 and 2007–2013 (median OS 23 months). For combined MBC, 76–89% had rMBC. Three of four studies observed no change in median OS after 2000. Of these, one study reported median OS improved for women ≤60 years (1995–1999 19·1; 2000–2004 22·3 months) but not \u3e60 years (12·7, 11·6 months). Interpretation Population-level improvements in OS for dnMBC have not been consistently observed in rMBC cohorts nor older women. These findings have implications for counselling patients about prognosis, planning cancer services and trial stratification

Long term risk of distant metastasis in women with non-metastatic breast cancer and survival after metastasis detection: A population-based linked health records study

Objectives: To estimate the long term risk of distant metastases (DM) for women with initial diagnoses of non-metastatic breast cancer; to estimate breast cancer-specific and overall survival for women with DM. Design: Population-based health record linkage study. Setting, participants: Women diagnosed with localised or regional primary breast cancer recorded in the NSW Cancer Registry, 2001–2002. Major outcome measures: Time from breast cancer diagnosis to first DM, time from first DM to death from breast cancer. Secondary outcome: time to death from any cause. Results: 6338 women were diagnosed with non-metastatic breast cancer (localised, 3885; regional, 2453; median age, 59 years [IQR, 49–69 years]). DM were recorded (to 30 September 2016) for 1432 women (23%; median age, 62 years [IQR, 51–73 years]). The 14-year cumulative DM incidence was 22.2% (95% CI, 21.1–23.2%; localised disease: 14.3% [95% CI, 13.2–15.4%]; regional disease: 34.7% [95% CI, 32.8–36.6%]). Annual hazard of DM was highest during the second year after breast cancer diagnosis (localised disease: 2.8%; 95% CI, 2.3–3.3%; regional disease: 9.1%; 95% CI, 7.8–10.3%); from year five it was about 1% for those with localised disease, from year seven about 2% for women with regional disease at diagnosis. Five years after diagnosis, the 5-year conditional probability of DM was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7–5.1%) for women with localised and 10.4% (95% CI, 9.1–12.0%) for those with regional disease at diagnosis. Median breast cancer-specific survival from first DM record date was 28 months (95% CI, 25–31 months); the annual hazard of breast cancer death after the first DM record declined from 36% (95% CI, 33–40%) during the first year to 14% (95% CI, 11–18%) during the fourth year since detection. Conclusions: DM risk declines with time from diagnosis of non-metastatic breast cancer, and the annual risk of dying from breast cancer declines with time from initial DM detection. These findings can be used to inform patients at follow-up about changes in risk over time since diagnosis and for planning health services

New Challenges in Psycho-Oncology Research III: A systematic review of psychological interventions for prostate cancer survivors and their partners: clinical and research implications

[Extract] The medical and social context of prostate cancer (PCa) has changed dramatically since the introduction of PSA testing for early detection in the late 1980s,¹ leading to a peak in incidence in the developed world in the 1990s and again a decade later.² Since that time, novel PCa treatments have rapidly emerged in the radiation and medical oncology field, as well as surgical advances.³ The recent emergence of active surveillance for low-risk disease has further expanded possible treatment approaches.⁴ Market forces from consumers, clinicians, and the therapeutic industry have driven changes in clinical and surgical management and treatment; however, psycho-oncological research and survivorship care arguably has lagged behind. Specifically, although men are surviving longer, they may not be surviving well. In 2012, there were over 1.1 million incident cases of PCa diagnosed and more than 300 000 deaths worldwide.⁵ Five-year prevalence estimates suggest that there are over 3.8 million PCa survivors globally⁶ with this expected to increase rapidly in future.⁷ The challenges we face in meeting the needs of these men and their families into the future are vast