Democracy and Protectionism

Does democracy encourage free trade? It depends. Broadening the franchise involves transferring power from non-elected elites to the wider population, most of whom will be workers. The Hecksher- Ohlin-Stolper-Samuelson logic says that democratization should lead to more liberal trade policies in countries where workers stand to gain from free trade; and to more protectionist policies in countries where workers will benefit from the imposition of tariffs and quotas. We test and confirm these political economy implications of trade theory hypothesis using data on democracy, factor endowments, and protection in the late nineteenth century.factor endowments, Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory, Stolper- Samuelson theorem and tariffs

Politics and trade: lessons from past globalisations

After tracing the link between politics and trade over a millennium, Kevin O'Rourke identifies permanent features of international economic relations. His timing is perfect. The crisis has switched the balance of power. Government is back in the driving seat and corporations look fragile. No one can predict how the cards will fall, but politics is making a come-back and will inevitably play a bigger role in shaping our future.

Heckscher-Ohlin Theory and Individual Attitudes Towards Globalization

The aim of the paper is to see whether individuals' attitudes towards globalization are consistent with the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The theory predicts that the impact of being skilled or unskilled on attitudes towards trade and immigration should depend on a country's skill endowments, with the skilled being less anti-trade and anti-immigration in more skill-abundant countries (here taken to be richer countries) than in more unskilled-labour-abundant countries (here taken to be poorer countries). These predictions are confirmed, using survey data for 24 countries. Being high-skilled is associated with more pro-globalization attitudes in rich countries; while in some of the very poorest countries in the sample being high-skilled has a negative (if statistically insignificant) impact on pro-globalization sentiment. More generally, an interaction term between skills and GDP per capita has a negative impact in regressions explaining anti-globalization sentiment. Furthermore, individuals view protectionism and anti-immigrant policies as complements rather than as substitutes, which is what simple Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts.

War and Welfare: Britain, France and the United States 1807-14

This paper assesses the relative welfare costs of the various embargos and blockades of the years 1807-1814 in three countries: Britain, France and the United States. Relative price evidence indicates that these blockades and embargos did restrict trade, and that britain was less severely affected than her rivals. Benchmark welfare estimates for the United States are particularly high, at roughly 5% per annum. While absolute welfare estimates depend on elasticity assumptions, the US unambiguously came out worst in these disputes, and Britain almost surely suffered lower losses than France as well.

Heckscher-Ohlin Theory and Individual Attitudes Towards GlobalisationInternational Financial Integration

The aim of the paper is to see whether individuals' attitudes towards globalisation are consistent with the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The theory predicts that the impact of being skilled or unskilled on attitudes towards trade and immigration should depend on a country's skill endowments, with the skilled being less anti-trade and anti-immigration in more skill-abundant countries (here taken to be richer countries) than in more unskilled-labour-abundant countries (here taken to be poorer countries). These predictions are confirmed, using survey data for 24 countries. The high-skilled are pro-globalisation in rich countries; while in some of the very poorest countries in the sample being high-skilled has a negative (if statistically insignificant) impact on pro-globalisation sentiment. More generally, an interaction term between skills and GDP per capita has a negative impact in regressions explaining anti-globalisation sentiment. Furthermore, individuals view protectionism and anti-immigration policies as complements rather than as substitutes, as they would do in a simple Heckscher-Ohlin world.

Heckscher-Ohlin Theory and Individual Attitudes Towards Globalization

The aim of the paper is to see whether individuals’ attitudes towards globalization are consistent with the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The theory predicts that the impact of being skilled or unskilled on attitudes towards trade and immigration should depend on a country’s skill endowments, with the skilled being less anti-trade and antiimmigration in more skill-abundant countries (here taken to be richer countries) than in more unskilled-labour-abundant countries (here taken to be poorer countries). These predictions are confirmed, using survey data for 24 countries. The high-skilled are pro-globalization in rich countries; while in some of the very poorest countries in the sample being high-skilled has a negative (if statistically insignificant) impact on pro-globalization sentiment. More generally, an interaction term between skills and GDP per capita has a negative impact in regressions explaining anti-globalization sentiment. Furthermore, individuals view protectionism and anti-immigrant policies as complements rather than as substitutes, as they would do in a simple Heckscher-Ohlin worldglobalization, attitudes, survey data, Hecksher-Ohlin theory.

Europe and the causes of globalization, 1790 to 2000

Forthcoming in H. Kierzkowski (ed.), From Europeanization of the Globe to the Globalization of Europe (Palgrave, 2002).