Precipitation extremes under climate change

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to warming.Comment: Accepted in Current Climate Change Report

Stochastic Models for the Kinematics of Moisture Transport and Condensation in Homogeneous Turbulent Flows

The transport of a condensing passive scalar is studied as a prototype model for the kinematics of moisture transport on isentropic surfaces. Condensation occurs whenever the scalar concentration exceeds a specified local saturation value. Since condensation rates are strongly nonlinear functions of moisture content, the mean moisture flux is generally not diffusive. To relate the mean moisture content, mean condensation rate, and mean moisture flux to statistics of the advecting velocity field, a one-dimensional stochastic model is developed in which the Lagrangian velocities of air parcels are independent Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (Gaussian colored noise) processes. The mean moisture evolution equation for the stochastic model is derived in the Brownian and ballistic limits of small and large Lagrangian velocity correlation time. The evolution equation involves expressions for the mean moisture flux and mean condensation rate that are nonlocal but remarkably simple. In a series of simulations of homogeneous two-dimensional turbulence, the dependence of mean moisture flux and mean condensation rate on mean saturation deficit is shown to be reproducible by the one-dimensional stochastic model, provided eddy length and time scales are taken as given. For nonzero Lagrangian velocity correlation times, condensation reduces the mean moisture flux for a given mean moisture gradient compared with the mean flux of a noncondensing scalar

The Hydrological Cycle over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM

A wide range of hydrological cycles and general circulations was simulated with an idealized general circulation model (GCM) by varying the optical thickness of the longwave absorber. While the idealized GCM does not capture the full complexity of the hydrological cycle, the wide range of climates simulated allows the systematic development and testing of theories of how precipitation and moisture transport change as the climate changes. The simulations show that the character of the response of the hydrological cycle to variations in longwave optical thickness differs in different climate regimes. The global-mean precipitation increases linearly with surface temperature for colder climates, but it asymptotically approaches a maximum at higher surface temperatures. The basic features of the precipitation–temperature relation, including the rate of increase in the linear regime, are reproduced in radiative–convective equilibrium simulations. Energy constraints partially account for the precipitation–temperature relation but are not quantitatively accurate. Large-scale condensation is most important in the midlatitude storm tracks, and its behavior is accounted for using a stochastic model of moisture advection and condensation. The precipitation associated with large-scale condensation does not scale with mean specific humidity, partly because the condensation region moves upward and meridionally as the climate warms, and partly because the mean condensation rate depends on isentropic specific humidity gradients, which do not scale with the specific humidity itself. The local water vapor budget relates local precipitation to evaporation and meridional moisture fluxes, whose scaling in the subtropics and extratropics is examined. A delicate balance between opposing changes in evaporation and moisture flux divergence holds in the subtropical dry zones. The extratropical precipitation maximum follows the storm track in warm climates but lies equatorward of the storm track in cold climates

Moist Convection and the Thermal Stratification of the Extratropical Troposphere

Simulations with an aquaplanet general circulation model show that sensible and latent heat transport by large-scale eddies influences the extratropical thermal stratification over a wide range of climates, even in relatively warm climates with small meridional surface temperature gradients. Variations of the lapse rate toward which the parameterized moist convection in the model relaxes atmospheric temperature profiles demonstrate that the convective lapse rate only marginally affects the extratropical thermal stratification in Earth-like and colder climates. In warmer climates, the convective lapse rate does affect the extratropical thermal stratification, but the effect is still smaller than would be expected if moist convection alone controlled the thermal stratification. A theory for how large-scale eddies modify the thermal stratification of dry atmospheres is consistent with the simulation results for colder climates. For warmer and moister climates, however, theories and heuristics that have been proposed to account for the extratropical thermal stratification are not consistent with the simulation results. Theories for the extratropical thermal stratification will generally have to take transport of sensible and latent heat by large-scale eddies into account, but moist convection may only need to be taken into account regionally and in sufficiently warm climates

Weather-Layer Dynamics of Baroclinic Eddies and Multiple Jets in an Idealized General Circulation Model

The general circulation and the behavior of multiple jets and baroclinic eddies are described for an atmosphere in which meridional potential temperature gradients and eddies are confined to a weather layer. The weather layer is separated from the frictional lower boundary by a statically stable barotropic layer with significant mass. Closure of the zonal momentum budget in the resulting circulation is achieved through ageostrophic meridional cells that extend to the lower boundary, at which momentum is dissipated. In a series of simulations with a multilevel primitive equation model, dynamic changes in the static stability of the weather layer are found to be critical in determining the scaling of the baroclinic eddies, an effect not captured in quasigeostrophic models. For simulations with a single jet in each hemisphere, the static stability of the weather layer adjusts so that a significant inverse energy cascade to scales larger than the Rossby deformation radius does not occur. The eddy length is found to scale with both the Rossby deformation radius and the Rhines scale. Simulations with larger planetary radii and low pole-to-equator temperature gradients exhibit multiple jets in each hemisphere. Eddy lengths and energies for the jet nearest the equator in each hemisphere have the same scaling as those in the single-jet simulations. Similar scalings are found for jets farther poleward but with different constants of proportionality that are consistent with more supercritical eddies. The local eddy length is found to have only a weak variation with latitude, and the local meridional jet spacing is found to scale with the local eddy length in all cases. Insights from the weather-layer simulations may be relevant to circulations in gas giant planets and the ocean

Understanding decreases in land relative humidity with global warming: conceptual model and GCM simulations

Climate models simulate a strong land-ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming: relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance arguments have been used to understand the response over ocean but are difficult to apply over more complex land surfaces. Here, a conceptual box model is introduced, involving moisture transport between the land and ocean boundary layers and evapotranspiration, to investigate the decreases in land relative humidity as the climate warms. The box model is applied to idealized and full-complexity (CMIP5) general circulation model simulations, and it is found to capture many of the features of the simulated changes in land relative humidity. The box model suggests there is a strong link between fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean, and the greater warming over land than ocean then implies a decrease in land relative humidity. Evapotranspiration is of secondary importance for the increase in specific humidity over land, but it matters more for the decrease in relative humidity. Further analysis shows there is a strong feedback between changes in surface-air temperature and relative humidity, and this can amplify the influence on relative humidity of factors such as stomatal conductance and soil moisture.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Climate on May 1st, 201

Monastic hospitality : explorations

In a theoretical model, religious retreats are placed by Lynch (2005a) within the category of traditional commercial homes, noting that the essence of a commercial home is the use of the home as a vehicle for generating income. Lynch (2005b:539) describes the 'commercial home host' as "the principal contact whom the guest encounters when staying in the commercial home," and further states that "the host is central to the product experience in commercial homes. Successful stays from a guest perspective are dependent upon the quality of host-guest interactions" (Lynch 2005c:541). This chapter explores the provision of hospitality within Benedictine Monastries in order to contribute to insights on the commercial home, and starts by locating them within the context of literature on religious tourism and the umbrella term 'religious retreat house'

Recovery of atmospheric flow statistics in a general circulation model without nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions

The closure problem of turbulence arises because nonlinear interactions among turbulent fluctuations (eddies) lead to an infinite hierarchy of moment equations for flow statistics. Here we demonstrate with an idealized general circulation model (GCM) that many atmospheric flow statistics can already be recovered if the hierarchy of moment equations is truncated at second order, corresponding to the elimination of nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions. Some, but not all, features of the general circulation remain the same. The atmospheric eddy kinetic energy spectrum retains a −3 power-law range even though this is usually explained in terms of an enstrophy cascade mediated by nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions. Our results suggest that it may be possible to construct fast general circulation models that solve for atmospheric flow statistics directly rather than via simulation of individual eddies and their interactions

Stable machine-learning parameterization of subgrid processes for climate modeling at a range of resolutions

Global climate models represent small-scale processes such as clouds and convection using quasi-empirical models known as parameterizations, and these parameterizations are a leading cause of uncertainty in climate projections. A promising alternative approach is to use machine learning to build new parameterizations directly from high-resolution model output. However, parameterizations learned from three-dimensional model output have not yet been successfully used for simulations of climate. Here we use a random forest to learn a parameterization of subgrid processes from output of a three-dimensional high-resolution atmospheric model. Integrating this parameterization into the atmospheric model leads to stable simulations at coarse resolution that replicate the climate of the high-resolution simulation. The parameterization obeys physical constraints and captures important statistics such as precipitation extremes. The ability to learn from a fully three-dimensional simulation presents an opportunity for learning parameterizations from the wide range of global high-resolution simulations that are now emerging.Comment: Main: 27 pages, 5 figures SI: 19 pages, 11 figures, 4 table