Deposit insurance, bank incentives, and the design of regulatory policy

This paper was presented at the conference "Financial services at the crossroads: capital regulation in the twenty-first century" as part of session 6, "The role of capital regulation in bank supervision." The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on February 26-27, 1998, was designed to encourage a consensus between the public and private sectors on an agenda for capital regulation in the new century.Deposit insurance ; Bank investments ; Bank supervision ; Bank capital

THE EFFECT OF PERSONAL AND FARM CHARACTERISTICS UPON GRAIN MARKETING PRACTICES

A survey of Kansas, Texas, and Iowa agricultural producers was taken to examine the factors affecting their grain marketing practices. Sales indices models and models of qualitative choice are used to determine whether marketers' choices of cash market, forward contract, or futures and options oriented marketing practices are significantly affected by their personal farm business characteristics. Results indicate that geographic location, farm size, grain enterprise specialization, farming experience, use of grain storage, and use of crop insurance have significant effects upon the respondents' choice of grain marketing practices.agricultural options, cash marketing, futures, grain marketing practices, multinomial logit, Tobit, Marketing,

Delta inflation: a bias in the design of randomized controlled trials in critical care medicine

Introduction: Mortality is the most widely accepted outcome measure in randomized controlled trials of therapies for critically ill adults, but most of these trials fail to show a statistically significant mortality benefit. The reasons for this are unknown. Methods: We searched five high impact journals (Annals of Internal Medicine, British Medical Journal, JAMA, The Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine) for randomized controlled trials comparing mortality of therapies for critically ill adults over a ten year period. We abstracted data on the statistical design and results of these trials to compare the predicted delta (delta; the effect size of the therapy compared to control expressed as an absolute mortality reduction) to the observed delta to determine if there is a systematic overestimation of predicted delta that might explain the high prevalence of negative results in these trials. Results: We found 38 trials meeting our inclusion criteria. Only 5/38 (13.2%) of the trials provided justification for the predicted delta. The mean predicted delta among the 38 trials was 10.1% and the mean observed delta was 1.4% (P < 0.0001), resulting in a delta-gap of 8.7%. In only 2/38 (5.3%) of the trials did the observed delta exceed the predicted delta and only 7/38 (18.4%) of the trials demonstrated statistically significant results in the hypothesized direction; these trials had smaller delta-gaps than the remainder of the trials (delta-gap 0.9% versus 10.5%; P < 0.0001). For trials showing non-significant trends toward benefit greater than 3%, large increases in sample size (380% - 1100%) would be required if repeat trials use the observed delta from the index trial as the predicted delta for a follow-up study. Conclusions: Investigators of therapies for critical illness systematically overestimate treatment effect size (delta) during the design of randomized controlled trials. This bias, which we refer to as "delta inflation", is a potential reason that these trials have a high rate of negative results

A case for market interest rates

Interest rates

Capital needs projections: a need for perspective

Capital

Increased risk for other cancers in individuals with Ewing sarcoma and their relatives.

BackgroundThere are few reports of the association of other cancers with Ewing sarcoma in patients and their relatives. We use a resource combining statewide genealogy and cancer reporting to provide unbiased risks.MethodsUsing a combined genealogy of 2.3 million Utah individuals and the Utah Cancer Registry (UCR), relative risks (RRs) for cancers of other sites were estimated in 143 Ewing sarcoma patients using a Cox proportional hazards model with matched controls; however, risks in relatives were estimated using internal cohort-specific cancer rates in first-, second-, and third-degree relatives.ResultsCancers of three sites (breast, brain, complex genotype/karyotype sarcoma) were observed in excess in Ewing sarcoma patients. No Ewing sarcoma patients were identified among first-, second-, or third-degree relatives of Ewing sarcoma patients. Significantly increased risk for brain, lung/bronchus, female genital, and prostate cancer was observed in first-degree relatives. Significantly increased risks were observed in second-degree relatives for breast cancer, nonmelanoma eye cancer, malignant peripheral nerve sheath cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and translocation sarcomas. Significantly increased risks for stomach cancer, prostate cancer, and acute lymphocytic leukemia were observed in third-degree relatives.ConclusionsThis analysis of risk for cancer among Ewing sarcoma patients and their relatives indicates evidence for some increased cancer predisposition in this population which can be used to individualize consideration of potential treatment of patients and screening of patients and relatives