Mountain resilience: a tool for mudflow risk management in the Ile Alatau Mountains, Kazakhstan

The densely populated central part of the Ile Alatau mountains is one of the most mudflow-prone areas of Kazakhstan. Implementation of protection measures, early warning systems, and risk management plans is crucial to protect livelihoods and infrastructure from damage caused by mudflows. Increasing harm and damage from mudflows in recent decades—due to more frequent events, as well as increased economic development of the area—has made the establishment and implementation of a mudflow risk management system a priority. The effectiveness of such a system largely depends on the scientific validity of the management plan and hence is determined by the level of knowledge of the physical processes triggering such events. This knowledge is based on information that must be collected, analyzed, and systematized. However, such data are not easy to access; they are scattered over different archives and research institutes or simply missing. In recent years, scientific monographs, articles, and reports have been published that attempt to collect and systematize data on mudflow phenomena in general. These efforts provide a basis for further work but are often not readily available for use. This article presents the updateable, interactive, intelligent information system “Mudflow phenomena of the central part of the Ile Alatau” that links cartographic information with data on mudflow formation centers. This system concentrates and collates existing knowledge, making it accessible to stakeholders and decision-makers who can turn this knowledge into suitable applications for adaptive and sustainable risk management

Accelerated Glacier Area Loss in the Zhetysu (Dzhungar) Alatau Range (Tien Shan) for the Period of 1956–2016

An updated glacier inventory is important for understanding the current glacier dynamics in the conditions of actual accelerating glacier retreat observed around the world. Here, we present a detailed analysis of the glaciation areas of the Zhetysu Alatau Range (Tien Shan) for 1956–2016 using well-established semiautomatic methods based on the band ratios. The total glacier area decreased by 49 ± 2.8% or by 399 ± 11.2 km2 from 813.6 ± 22.8 km2 to 414.6 ± 11.6 km2 during 1956–2016, while the number of glaciers increased from 985 to 813. Similar rates of area change characterized the periods 1956–2001, 2001–2012, 2012–2016, and 2001–2016: −296.2 ± 8.3 (−0.8% a−1), −63.7± 1.8 (−1.1% a−1), −39.1 ±1.1 (−2.2% a−1) and −102.8 ± 2.9 (−1.3% a−1) km2, respectively. The mean glacier size decreased from 0.57 km2 in 2001 to 0.51 km2 in 2016. Most glaciation areas of the Zhetysu Alatau faced north (north, northwest, and northeast), covered 390.35 ± 11 km2, and were located in altitudes between 3000 and 4000 m.a.s.l. With shrinkage rates of about −0.8% and −1.3% a−1 for the periods of 1956–2001 and 2001–2016, our results show that study area has the highest shrinkage rate compared to other glacierized areas of Central Asian mountains, including Altai, Pamir, and even the inner ranges of Tien Shan. It was found that a significant increase in temperature (0.12 °C/10 years) plays a main role in the state of glaciers