Fuzzy Information and Z-number-based Approaches to Energy Resource Selection

In this paper, we study models for ranking renewables and a mix of energy resources in the development of long-term energy policy. Energy resource selection is a multi-criteria decision-making problem, characterized by incomplete information, uncertainties and intangibles, competitive priorities and contradictory requirements. The uniqueness of the problem and the limited relevant data necessitates the use of expert opinion as a principal source of information. All these factors contribute to subjectivity and vagueness in the decision-making process. Taking into consideration these circumstances, fuzzy information and a Z-number-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been used as a decision-making tool. Z–number represents both the restriction and the reliability of evaluation and, due to these characteristics, it provides a better description of the uncertainty. Numerical examples and comparative analysis of fuzzy and Z-number-based models illustrate the process to solution and results

An Integrated Approach for Renewable Energy Resource and Plant Location Selection

Renewable energy resources ranking, and power plant location selection are multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. These problems can be solved as two-phase decision-making tasks separately and sequentially or, in a unified form, as a single-step task. In this paper, we are studying the efficiency and applicability of the unified approach based on fuzzy and Z-information, and TOPSIS technique. Alternatives for the single-step approach are generated based on renewables available in the country and potential geographical locations for these resources. Considering the importance of weights in MCDM and the multiplicity of approaches to criteria weighting, subjective, objective, AHP-based, and combination of the subjective and objective weights are used for decision matrix weighting. Comparative analysis of the solutions, based on various weights, allows making a reliable solution. The results of the study and problem solution confirm the efficiency and applicability of the combined approach. The advantage of the unified single step solution is that this approach, in addition to the solution of the main task, provides to decision-maker additional information about preferable next best renewable and location option as well

Z-numbers Based Hybrid MCDM Approach for Energy Resources Ranking and Selection

Energy resource selection is a multi-criteria decision-making task, and in most cases, it is characterized by uncertainties, information incompleteness, and vagueness. In such circumstances, a group decision making and experts` opinion study are appropriate approaches for the problem solution. These approaches allow to a considerable extent to compensate the deficiency of the relevant and reliable data on alternatives and decision-makers’ priorities. In this paper fuzzy information and Z-numbers based MCDM models have been studied and used as a group decision-making tool for energy resources ranking and selection. In order to make a well-founded and reliable decision and to get insights how methodological backgrounds of models used are influencing results of evaluations, comparative study of applications of the outranking, distance-based and pairwise comparisons methods for the same subject area is carried out and merits and demerits of each approach from a decision-makers’ point of view are evaluated. The availability of solutions based on various approaches allows to decision-maker to select the more justified and consistent solution. A numerical example of energy resources ranking and selection for Azerbaijan illustrates the efficiency of the integrated approach and comparative study

A Fuzzy Analitic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) Application for a Renewable election in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is an energy-independent country and oil and gas resources are driving forces for the country economics. But heavy reliance on hydrocarbons has two serious implications: traditional energy systems are environmentally harmful; all non-renewable resources have a limited lifecycle of production. In such circumstances, the development of renewables-based energy systems is of interest for Azerbaijan as well. Geographical features of the country provide a list of the country-level available renewables: solar, wind and hydro resources. Renewables selection is a multicriteria decision-making process and requires a comprehensive study of the social, economic, technological and other specific aspects of renewable development. Like any other unique undertakings and innovation, it is characterized by insufficient information, uncertainties and intangibles, competitive priorities and contradictory decisions. The necessity to rely on experts` opinion also contributes to the subjectivity and vagueness of decision-making problem. Taking into consideration these circumstances, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process has been used. According to the research results, available renewables are ordered, in accordance with priority, as following: solar → wind → hydro. A high priority for the solar resource presumably related to its availability almost all around the country, technical solutions affordability and relatively low per unit cost. The hydro has limited geographical availability, relatively high investment cost and some negative implications for nature. The wind is in the intermediat

Renewable Energy Transition Task Solution for the Oil Countries Using Scenario-Driven Fuzzy Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making Models: The Case of Azerbaijan

The renewable energy transition of oil- and gas-producing countries has specific peculiarities due to the ambivalent position of these countries in the global energy market, both as producers and consumers of energy resources. This task becomes even more challenging when the share of oil and gas in the country’s GDP is very high. These circumstances pose serious challenges for longterm energy policy development and require compromising decisions to better align the existing and newly created energy policies of the country. The scale, scope, and pace of changes in the transition process must be well balanced, considering the increasing pressure of economic and environmental factors. The objective of this paper is to develop models that allow the selection of the most appropriate scenario for renewable energy transition in an oil- and gas-producing country. The distinguishing feature of the proposed model is that alternatives in the decision matrix are presented as scenarios, composed of a set of energy resources and the level of their use. Linguistic descriptions of the alternative scenarios are formalized in the form of fuzzy statements. For the problem solution, four different Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods were used: the fuzzy simple additive weighting (F-SAW) method, the distance-based fuzzy TOPSIS method (Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution), the ratio-analysis-based fuzzy MOORA method (Multi- Objective Optimization Model Based on the Ratio Analysis), and the fuzzy multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution method VIKOR (Serbian: VIekriterijumsko Kompromisno Rangiranje). This approach is illustrated using the example of the energy sector of Azerbaijan. The recommended solution for the country involves increasing natural gas (NG) moderately, maintaining hydro, and increasing solar notably and wind moderately

Modern challenges of oil producing countries and the ways for establishing a non-oil dependent economy in Azerbaijan (Comparative approach)

This paper deeply analyses Azerbaijan’s oil business and the level of its hydrocarbon dependence. It examines the ways and methods of reducing oil dependence in Azerbaijan’s economy and analyses the modern challenges of oil producing nations in their oil business. Many comparisons and determinations are shown out of the oil producing countries’ practices for restructuring their economy to diminish the hydrocarbon dependence. The comparisons statistically examine the economic, financial and other fiscal indications. There is also an examination of the institutions related to this oil business as OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), Sovereign Wealth Find (SWF), State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) and other authorities. The purpose of this research is to show the practical reasons and the ways to smoothly shift Azerbaijan from economic oil dependence into a prosperous and non-oil dependent nation. The study is in essence a comparative analysis of the oil-rich countries’ economic dependency on oil and the implied methods by the countries for shifting these nations into long-term economic prosperity. It also takes a look at the economic and socio-political situation of the economic structures whose import and export balances are regulated mainly by the oil business

Selection of Renewables for Economic Regions with Diverse Conditions: The Case of Azerbaijan

The objective of this paper is to study the specifics of the selection of renewables for regions of Azerbaijan with diverse conditions. Information is obtained through the analysis of the regions’ conditions and experts’ opinions. Analysis reveals that geographical position, diversity of natural resources, and a variety of other factors of the five economic regions of the country require subdivision of these regions in the selection of renewables. Given that the selection of renewables is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) task under a high degree of uncertainty, Z-number-based models have been developed, and Z-extension of the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method has been used. Solutions have been derived based on direct calculations with Z-numbers. In this paper, results obtained for two regions are presented. In the case of one region, for the first part (mountains and foothill) of the Karabakh economic region, renewables are ranked as hydro, solar, and wind. For the second part (plain), the ranking is as follows: solar, hydro, and wind. For the Guba-Khachmaz economic region, the rankings of renewables for parts of the region are also different: the wind is preferable for the seaside, and solar is more appropriate for the foothills. Results show that in the case of uneven distribution of renewables and significant differences in factors influencing decision-making, it is necessary to subdivide economic regions and use different models for the selection of renewable

Corporate Governance in Azerbaijan

This study covers Corporate Governance in Azerbaijan and Evolution Characteristics and Problems