Eat Out to Help Out only had a short-lived effect on food outlets

The Eat Out to Help Out scheme aimed to support economic recovery after the first COVID-19 lockdown ended in the UK. Nicolás González-Pampillón, Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim and Katharina Ziegler (LSE) find that the policy led to higher footfall in retail and recreation venues on days when the discount was available, but it did not encourage people to go out for other purposes during the scheme or to eat out once it ended

The economic impacts of the UK's eat out to help out scheme

We evaluate the economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out (EOTHO) scheme on the food service sector. EOTHO subsidised the cost of eating out, with a 50% discount Mondays to Wednesdays in August 2020. We exploit the spatial variation in take-up using a continuous difference-in-differences approach and an instrumental variables strategy. We measure the effect on footfall using mobility data from Google and on employment using job posts from Indeed. Our estimates indicate that a one standard deviation increase in exposure to the EOTHO scheme increased footfall in retail & recreation by 2%-5%, and job posts in the food preparation & service industry by 6%-8%. These effects are transitory, and we do not find evidence of large spillover benefits to non-recreational activities or other sectors

Using gridded population and quadtree sampling units to support survey sample design in low-income settings

BackgroundHousehold surveys are the main source of demographic, health and socio-economic data in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). To conduct such a survey, census population information mapped into enumeration areas (EAs) typically serves a sampling frame from which to generate a random sample. However, the use of census information to generate this sample frame can be problematic as in many LMIC contexts, such data are often outdated or incomplete, potentially introducing coverage issues into the sample frame. Increasingly, where census data are outdated or unavailable, modelled population datasets in the gridded form are being used to create household survey sampling frames.MethodsPreviously this process was done by either sampling from a set of the uniform grid cells (UGC) which are then manually subdivided to achieve the desired population size, or by sampling very small grid cells then aggregating cells into larger units to achieve a minimum population per survey cluster. The former approach is time and resource-intensive as well as results in substantial heterogeneity in the output sampling units, while the latter can complicate the calculation of unbiased sampling weights. Using the context of Somalia, which has not had a full census since 1987, we implemented a quadtree algorithm for the first time to create a population sampling frame. The approach uses gridded population estimates and it is based on the idea of a quadtree decomposition in which an area successively subdivided into four equal size quadrants, until the content of each quadrant is homogenous.ResultsThe quadtree approach used here produced much more homogeneous sampling units than the UGC (1 × 1 km and 3 × 3 km) approach. At the national and pre-war regional scale, the standard deviation and coefficient of variation, as indications of homogeneity, were calculated for the output sampling units using quadtree and UGC 1 × 1 km and 3 × 3 km approaches to create the sampling frame and the results showed outstanding performance for quadtree approach.ConclusionOur approach reduces the manual burden of manually subdividing UGC into highly populated areas, while allowing for correct calculation of sampling weights. The algorithm produces a relatively homogenous population counts within the sampling units, reducing the variation in the weights and improving the precision of the resulting estimates. Furthermore, a protocol of creating approximately equal-sized blocks and using tablets for randomized selection of a household in each block mitigated potential selection bias by enumerators. The approach shows labour, time and cost-saving and points to the potential use in wider contexts