Economic Impacts of Soybean Rust on the US Soybean Sector

The spread of Asian Soybean Rust (ASR) represents a real threat to the U.S. soybean sector. We assess the potential impacts of ASR on domestic soybean production and commodity markets as well as the competitive position of the US in the soybean export market. We develop a mathematical stochastic dynamic sector model with endogenous prices to assess the economic impacts of ASR on US agriculture. The model takes into account the disease spread during the cropping season, the inherent uncertainty regarding the risk of infection, and the dichotomous decisions that farmers make (no treatment, preventive treatment, and curative treatment) facing the risk of infection. Our results suggest substantial impacts from potential ASR spread on agricultural output, prices and exports. Our simulation results suggest that substantial losses to the US soybean producers may be avoided by establishing effective soybean rust controls. ASR control policies can be particularly efficient if applied in the gateway regions on the path of the ASR spread. On the other hand, our results indicate a possible gradual shift in soybean production from lower-latitude states toward higher-latitude statesAsian Soybean Rust, Stochastic Models, Dynamic Models, Crop Production/Industries, C61, Q13,

Economic Impacts of Soybean Rust on the US Soybean Sector

The spread of Asian Soybean Rust (ASR) represents a real threat to the U.S. soybean sector. We assess the potential impacts of ASR on domestic soybean production and commodity markets as well as the competitive position of the US in the soybean export market. We develop a mathematical stochastic dynamic sector model with endogenous prices to assess the economic impacts of ASR on US agriculture. The model takes into account the disease spread during the cropping season, the inherent uncertainty regarding the risk of infection, and the dichotomous decisions that farmers make (no treatment, preventive treatment, and curative treatment) facing the risk of infection. Our results suggest substantial impacts from potential ASR spread on agricultural output, prices and exports. Our simulation results suggest that substantial losses to the US soybean producers may be avoided by establishing effective soybean rust controls. ASR control policies can be particularly efficient if applied in the gateway regions on the path of the ASR spread. On the other hand, our results indicate a possible gradual shift in soybean production from lower-latitude states toward higher-latitude states.Asian Soybean Rust, Stochastic Models, Dynamic Models, Agribusiness, Marketing, C61, Q13,

A new eclipsing binary system with a pulsating component detected by CoRoT

We report the discovery of CoRoT 102980178 (R.A.= 06:50:12.10, Dec.= -02:41:21.8, J2000) an Algol-type eclipsing binary system with a pulsating component (oEA). It was identified using a publicly available 55 day long monochromatic lightcurve from the CoRoT initial run dataset (exoplanet field). Eleven consecutive 1.26m deep total primary and the equal number of 0.25m deep secondary eclipses (at phase 0.50) were observed. The following light elements for the primary eclipse were derived: HJD_MinI= 2454139.0680 + 5.0548d x E. The lightcurve modeling leads to a semidetached configuration with the photometric mass ratio q=0.2 and orbital inclination i=85 deg. The out-of-eclipse lightcurve shows ellipsoidal variability and positive O'Connell effect as well as clear 0.01m pulsations with the dominating frequency of 2.75 c/d. The pulsations disappear during the primary eclipses, which indicates the primary (more massive) component to be the pulsating star. Careful frequency analysis reveals the second independent pulsation frequency of 0.21 c/d and numerous combinations of these frequencies with the binary orbital frequency and its harmonics. On the basis of the CoRoT lightcurve and ground based multicolor photometry, we favor classification of the pulsating component as a gamma Doradus type variable, however, classification as an SPB star cannot be excluded.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, accepted to Communications in Asteroseismolog

Spatially resolved past and projected changes of the suitable thermal habitat of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) under climate change

x,298 p. : il.; 23 cm

Variability in high-mass X-ray binaries

Strongly magnetized, accreting neutron stars show periodic and aperiodic variability over a wide range of time scales. By obtaining spectral and timing information on these different time scales, we can have a closer look into the physics of accretion close to the neutron star and the properties of the accreted material. One of the most prominent time scales is the strong pulsation, i.e., the rotation period of the neutron star itself. Over one rotation, our view of the accretion column and the X-ray producing region changes significantly. This allows us to sample different physical conditions within the column but at the same time requires that we have viewing-angle-resolved models to properly describe them. In wind-fed high-mass X-ray binaries, the main source of aperiodic variability is the clumpy stellar wind, which leads to changes in the accretion rate (i.e., luminosity) as well as absorption column. This variability allows us to study the behavior of the accretion column as a function of luminosity, as well as to investigate the structure and physical properties of the wind, which we can compare to winds in isolated stars.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomische Nachrichten (proceedings of the XMM-Newton Workshop 2019

A multi-decadal meridional displacement of the Subpolar Front in the Newfoundland Basin

Observations since the 1950s show a multi-decadal cycle of a meridional displacement of the Subpolar Front (SPF) in the Newfoundland Basin (NFB) in the North Atlantic. The SPF displacement is associated with corresponding variations in the path of the North Atlantic Current. We use the ocean general circulation model MPIOM with enhanced horizontal and vertical resolutions and forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to study the relation of the SPF displacement to atmospheric forcing, intensities of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), and Labrador Sea Water (LSW) volume. The simulations indicate that the SPF displacement is associated with a circulation anomaly between the SPG and the subtropical gyre (STG), an inter-gyre gyre with a multi-decadal time scale. A sensitivity experiment indicates that both wind stress curl (WSC) and heat fluxes (which match LSW changes) contribute to the circulation anomalies in the frontal region and to the SPF displacement. An anticyclonic inter-gyre gyre is related to negative WSC and LSW anomalies and to a SPF north of its climatological position, indicating an expanding STG. A cyclonic inter-gyre gyre is related to positive WSC and LSW anomalies and a SPF south of its climatological position, indicating an expanding SPG. Therefore, the mean latitudinal position of the SPF in the NFB (a "SPF index") could be an indicator of the amount of LSW in the inter-gyre region. Spreading of LSW anomalies intensifies the MOC, suggesting our SPF index as predictor of the MOC intensity at multi-decadal time scales. The meridional displacement of the SPF has a pronounced influence on the meridional heat transport, both on its gyre and overturning components.<br

Noncommutative Integrable Field Theories in 2d

We study the noncommutative generalization of (euclidean) integrable models in two-dimensions, specifically the sine- and sinh-Gordon and the U(N) principal chiral models. By looking at tree-level amplitudes for the sinh-Gordon model we show that its na\"\i ve noncommutative generalization is {\em not} integrable. On the other hand, the addition of extra constraints, obtained through the generalization of the zero-curvature method, renders the model integrable. We construct explicit non-local non-trivial conserved charges for the U(N) principal chiral model using the Brezin-Itzykson-Zinn-Justin-Zuber method.Comment: 18 pages, 1 figure; v2: references adde

Prevalencia de factores de riesgo cardiovascular clásicos en población adulta de Talca, Chile, 2005

Departamento de Bioquímica Clínica e Inmunohematología, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Talca, Talca, Chile. Instituto de Matemática y Física, Universidad de Talca, Talca, Chile. Departamento de Salud Pública, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Talca, Talca, Chile. Escuela de Psicología, Universidad de Talca, Talca, Chile.Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has several traditional risk factors (RF), and some of them are potentially modifiable. Aim: To determine the prevalence of most common risk factors in adult population in Talca in Central Chile. Subjects and methods: We studied 1007 subjects aged 18 to 74 years (66% women), living in Talca, selected by a probability sampling. They answered a questionnaire and anthropometry, blood pressure, lipid profile and blood glucose were measured. Results: Thirty seven percent of subjects smoked, 70.1% had a body mass index over 25 kg/m2 and 41% had an abnormally high circumference. High blood pressure was found in 37% (36% of these subjects were unaware of this condition), 44.5% had hypercholesterolemia, 21.5% had low HDL cholesterol, 40.1% had hypertriglyceridemia and 26.3% had high blood glucose levels. Conclusions: There is a high prevalence of risk factors for CVD in adult population from Talca. The prevalence of risk factors is higher than that reported by the 2003 National Health Survery

Superconformal Gauge Theories and Non-Critical Superstrings

We consider effective actions for six-dimensional non-critical superstrings. We show that the addition of $N$ units of R-R flux and of $N_f$ space-time filling D5-branes produces $AdS_5 \times S^1$ solutions with curvature comparable to the string scale. These solutions have the right structure to be dual to ${\cal N}=1$ supersymmetric SU(N) gauge theories with $N_f$ flavors. We further suggest bounds on the mass-squared of tachyonic fields in this background that should restrict the theory to the conformal window.Comment: 16 pages, 1 figure v4: Minor change