Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets.

Sudden Stops are the simultaneous occurence of a currency/balance of payments crisis with a reversal in capital flows (Calvo, 1998). We investigate the output effects of financial crises in emerging markets, focusing on whether sudden-stop crises are a unique phenomenon and whether they entail an especially large and abrupt pattern of output collapse (a "Mexican wave"). Despite an emerging theoretical literature on Sudden Stops, empirical work to date has not precisely identified their occurences nor measured their subsequent output effects in broad samples. Analysis of Sudden Stops may provide the key to understanding why some currency/balance of payments crises entail very large output losses, while others are frequently followed by expansions. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 24 emerging-market economies, we distinguish between the output effects of currency crises, capital inflow reversals, and sudden-stop crises. We find that sudden-stop crises have a large negative, but short-lived, impact on output growth over and above that found with currency crises. A currency crisis typically reduces output by about 2-3 percent, while a Sudden Stop reduces output by and additional 6-8 percent in the year of the crisis. The cumulative output los of a Sudden Stop is even larger, around 13-15 percent over a three-year period. Out model estimates correspond closely to the output dynamics of the "Mexican wave" (such as seen in Mexico in 1995, Turkey in 1994 and elsewhere), and out-of-sample predictions of the model explain the sudden (and seemingly unexpected) collapse in output associated with the 1997-98 Asian Crisis. The empirical results are robust to alternative model specifications, lag structures and using estimation procedures (IV and GMM) that correct for bias associated with simultaneity and estimation of dynamic panel models with country-specific effect.

Improved bounds for the number of forests and acyclic orientations in the square lattice

In a recent paper Merino and Welsh (1999) studied several counting problems on the square lattice $L_n$. The authors gave the following bounds for the asymptotics of $f(n)$, the number of forests of $L_n$, and $\alpha(n)$, the number of acyclic orientations of $L_n$: $3.209912 \leq \lim_{n\rightarrow\infty} f(n)^{1/n^2} \leq 3.84161$ and $22/7 \leq \lim_{n\rightarrow\infty} \alpha(n) \leq 3.70925$. In this paper we improve these bounds as follows: $3.64497 \leq \lim_{n\rightarrow\infty} f(n)^{1/n^2} \leq 3.74101$ and $3.41358 \leq \lim_{n\rightarrow\infty} \alpha(n) \leq 3.55449$. We obtain this by developing a method for computing the Tutte polynomial of the square lattice and other related graphs based on transfer matrices

Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops

This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal) on output growth during financial crises characterized by a “sudden stop” in net capital inflows in developing and emerging market economies. We investigate 83 sudden stop crises in 77 countries over 1982-2003 using a baseline empirical model to control for the various determinants of output losses during sudden stop crises. Extending the baseline model to account for policies-- contractionary as well as expansionary-- we measure the marginal effects of policy on output losses. Simple descriptive statistics indicate no apparent correlation between the costs of financial crises and the economic policies pursed at the time. Once controlling for various pre-conditions and other factors, however, we find that monetary and fiscal tightening at the time of a sudden stop crisis significantly worsens output losses.Output losses, financial crises, sudden stops, fiscal policy, financial policy

The impact of boundary conditions on CO2 capacity estimation in aquifers

The boundary conditions of an aquifer determine the extent to which fluids (including formation water and CO2) and pressure can be transferred into adjacent geological formations, either laterally or vertically. Aquifer boundaries can be faults, lithological boundaries, formation pinch-outs, salt walls, or outcrop. In many cases compliance with regulations preventing CO2 storage influencing areas outside artificial boundaries defined by non-geological criteria (international boundaries; license limits) may be necessary. A bounded aquifer is not necessarily a closed aquifer. The identification of an aquifer’s boundary conditions determines how CO2 storage capacity is estimated in the earliest screening and characterization stages. There are different static capacity estimation methods in use for closed systems and open systems. The method used has a significant impact on the final capacity estimate. The recent EU Directive (2009/31/EC) stated that where more than one storage site within a single “hydraulic unit” (bounded aquifer volume) is being considered, the characterization process should account for potential pressure interactions. The pressure interplay of multiple sites (or even the pressure footprint of just one site) is heavily influenced by boundary conditions

Reasoning by analogy in the generation of domain acceptable ontology refinements

Refinements generated for a knowledge base often involve the learning of new knowledge to be added to or replace existing parts of a knowledge base. However, the justifiability of the refinement in the context of the domain (domain acceptability) is often overlooked. The work reported in this paper describes an approach to the generation of domain acceptable refinements for incomplete and incorrect ontology individuals through reasoning by analogy using existing domain knowledge. To illustrate this approach, individuals for refinement are identified during the application of a knowledge-based system, EIRA; when EIRA fails in its task, areas of its domain ontology are identified as requiring refinement. Refinements are subsequently generated by identifying and reasoning with similar individuals from the domain ontology. To evaluate this approach EIRA has been applied to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) domain. An evaluation (by a domain expert) of the refinements generated by EIRA has indicated that this approach successfully produces domain acceptable refinements

The Appearance of Fairness Doctrine: A Conflict in Values

This Comment compares the appearance of fairness doctrine with the Washington State Code of Judicial Conduct and shows that abandoning the doctrine and substituting the Code and due process would not resolve the conflict between independence and accountability, but would further exacerbate it. Rather, the appearance of fairness doctrine, modified by the 1982 appearance of fairness statute, is a standard that accommodates the conflict inherent in any bias standard applied to elected and appointed officials. The legislative modifications, however, fall short of the need for a clearly defined doctrine that provides guidance and certainty for the decisionmakers and the courts. Further modification of the doctrine is needed. Therefore, this Comment proposes modification of the doctrine that includes a careful definition of the doctrine, identification of the proceedings to which it applies, and the inclusion of staff members among those held to a bias standard and ex parte rules when they participate in those proceedings

Conflict-Free Coloring Made Stronger

In FOCS 2002, Even et al. showed that any set of $n$ discs in the plane can be Conflict-Free colored with a total of at most $O(\log n)$ colors. That is, it can be colored with $O(\log n)$ colors such that for any (covered) point $p$ there is some disc whose color is distinct from all other colors of discs containing $p$. They also showed that this bound is asymptotically tight. In this paper we prove the following stronger results: \begin{enumerate} \item [(i)] Any set of $n$ discs in the plane can be colored with a total of at most $O(k \log n)$ colors such that (a) for any point $p$ that is covered by at least $k$ discs, there are at least $k$ distinct discs each of which is colored by a color distinct from all other discs containing $p$ and (b) for any point $p$ covered by at most $k$ discs, all discs covering $p$ are colored distinctively. We call such a coloring a {\em $k$-Strong Conflict-Free} coloring. We extend this result to pseudo-discs and arbitrary regions with linear union-complexity. \item [(ii)] More generally, for families of $n$ simple closed Jordan regions with union-complexity bounded by $O(n^{1+\alpha})$, we prove that there exists a $k$-Strong Conflict-Free coloring with at most $O(k n^\alpha)$ colors. \item [(iii)] We prove that any set of $n$ axis-parallel rectangles can be $k$-Strong Conflict-Free colored with at most $O(k \log^2 n)$ colors. \item [(iv)] We provide a general framework for $k$-Strong Conflict-Free coloring arbitrary hypergraphs. This framework relates the notion of $k$-Strong Conflict-Free coloring and the recently studied notion of $k$-colorful coloring. \end{enumerate} All of our proofs are constructive. That is, there exist polynomial time algorithms for computing such colorings

Dynamic Windows Scheduling with Reallocation

We consider the Windows Scheduling problem. The problem is a restricted version of Unit-Fractions Bin Packing, and it is also called Inventory Replenishment in the context of Supply Chain. In brief, the problem is to schedule the use of communication channels to clients. Each client ci is characterized by an active cycle and a window wi. During the period of time that any given client ci is active, there must be at least one transmission from ci scheduled in any wi consecutive time slots, but at most one transmission can be carried out in each channel per time slot. The goal is to minimize the number of channels used. We extend previous online models, where decisions are permanent, assuming that clients may be reallocated at some cost. We assume that such cost is a constant amount paid per reallocation. That is, we aim to minimize also the number of reallocations. We present three online reallocation algorithms for Windows Scheduling. We evaluate experimentally these protocols showing that, in practice, all three achieve constant amortized reallocations with close to optimal channel usage. Our simulations also expose interesting trade-offs between reallocations and channel usage. We introduce a new objective function for WS with reallocations, that can be also applied to models where reallocations are not possible. We analyze this metric for one of the algorithms which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first online WS protocol with theoretical guarantees that applies to scenarios where clients may leave and the analysis is against current load rather than peak load. Using previous results, we also observe bounds on channel usage for one of the algorithms.Comment: 6 figure

Phased arrays of buried-ridge InP/InGaAsP diode lasers

Phase-locked arrays of buried-ridge InP/InGaAsP lasers, emitting at 1.3 µm, were grown by liquid phase epitaxy. The arrays consist of index-guided, buried-ridge lasers which are coupled via their evanescent optical fields. This index-guided structure makes it possible to avoid the occurrence of lower gain in the interchannel regions. As a result, the buried-ridge arrays oscillate mainly in the fundamental supermode, which yields single lobed, narrow far-field patterns. Single lobed beams less than 4° in width were obtained from buried-ridge InP/InGaAsP phased arrays up to more than twice the threshold current

Phase-locking characteristics of coupled ridge-waveguide InP/InGaAsP diode lasers

The phase-locking characteristics of two coupled, ridge waveguide InP/InGaAsP diode lasers emitting at 1.2 µm were investigated experimentally. The phase locking of the lasers was verified by the observation of phase-locked modes (supermodes) in the spectrally resolved near fields and distinct diffraction patterns in the far field. By independent control of the laser currents it was possible to vary continuously the mutual phase shift between the two phase-locked lasers and thus steer the far-field diffraction lobes. In addition, the separate current control could be utilized to obtain single longitudinal mode oscillation of the phase-locked lasers. Variation in one of the laser currents resulted then in tuning of the wavelength of this single mode over a range of 90 Å