Atrial thrombus detection on transoesophageal echocardiography in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing cardioversion or catheter ablation: A pooled analysis of rates and predictors

Objective: To summarize data on the rates and predictors of left atrial thrombus/ left atrial appendage thrombus (LAT/LAAT) detection by transoesophageal echocardiography (TEE) before electrical cardioversion (ECV) or catheter ablation (CA) for atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Web of Science Core Collection were searched to identify all studies providing relevant data and published by October 7, 2020. A random‐effects meta‐analysis method was used to pool effect size estimates. Results: A total of 85 studies were included, reporting data from 56 660 patients with AF. In patients undergoing CA and ECV, the pooled prevalence of LAT/LAAT was 1.8% and 7.5% in those not on oral anticoagulation (OAC), 1.8% and 5.5% in those taking OAC, and 1.3% and 4.9% in case of adequate OAC, respectively. According to the type of OAC, the prevalence was 2.0% and 7.6% for vitamin K antagonist, 1.3% and 3.5% for direct oral anticoagulant. Predictors of LAT/LAAT detection were nonparoxysmal AF (odds ratio [OR]: 3.6, 95% confidence interval: 2.4–5.2), hypertension (OR: 2.9, 1.2–7.0), previous stroke (OR: 3.0, 1.6–5.63), heart failure (OR: 4.3, 2.7–6.8), and CHADS2 score ≥2 (OR: 3.3, 1.9–5.8) for patients undergoing CA; and heart failure (OR: 2.8, 1.3–6.2) and the CHA2DS2‐VASc score (OR: 2.55, 1.5–4.5) for those undergoing ECV. Conclusion: The prevalence of LAT/LAAT in AF patients undergoing ECV or CA varies widely, mainly due to differences in patient risk profiles and OAC types. Further research should determine whether the predictors of LAT/LAAT detection identified by this study could be used to select patients who require preprocedural TEE.Jean Jacques Noubiap, Thomas A. Agbaedeng, Aude Laetitia Ndoadoumgue, Ulrich Flore Nyaga, Andre Pascal Kengn

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Published Online August 27, 2020Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC.GBD 2019 Universal Health Coverage Collaborators. Rafael Lozano ... Peter S Azzopardi ... Bernhard T Baune ... Dinesh Bhandari ... Liliana G Ciobanu ... Tiffany K Gill ... Ratilal Lalloo ... Jean Jacques Noubiap ... et al

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Published online: 12 October 2021Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Damaris Kinyoki, Aaron E. Osgood-Zimmerman, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Local Burden of Disease Anaemia Collaborators, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, and Simon I. Hay. (Local Burden of Disease Anaemia Collaborators: Lauren E. Schaeffer ...Muktar Beshir Ahmed ... Habtamu Abera Areri ... Dinesh Bhandari ... Tiffany K. Gill ... Jean Jacques Noubiap ... Andrew T. Olagunju ... et al.

Sex differences in clinical profile, management, and outcomes of patients hospitalized for atrial fibrillation in the United States

Online publish-ahead-of-print 21 December 2021Aims: This study aimed to investigate the impact of sex on the clinical profile, utilization of rhythm control therapies, cost of hospitalization, length of stay, and in-hospital mortality in patients admitted for atrial fibrillation (AF) in the United States. Methods and results: We used data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample for the year 2018. Regression analysis was performed to investigate differences between men and women. A P-value ≤ 0.05 was considered significant. We included 82592 patients with a primary diagnosis of of AF 50.8% women. Women were significantly older (mean age 74 vs. 67 years, P < 0.001) and had a higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (median 4 vs. 2, P < 0.001) than men. Women had relatively higher in-hospital mortality (0.9% vs. 0.8%, P = 0.070); however, after adjustment for known risk factors female sex was no longer a predictor of mortality (P = 0.199). In sex-specific regression analyses, increased age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, previous stroke, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease were risk factors for in-hospital mortality in both sexes, vascular disease only in women, and race and alcohol abuse only in men. After adjusting for potential confounders, female sex was associated with lower likelihood of receiving catheter ablation [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64–0.74] and electrical cardioversion (aOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.67–0.72), and with longer hospitalization (aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.28–1.37), whereas sex had no influence on hospitalization costs (P = 0.339). Conclusion: There were differences in the risk profile, management, and outcomes between men and women hospitalized for AF. Further studies are needed to explore why women are treated differently regarding rhythm control procedures.Jean Jacques Noubiap, Gijo Thomas, Thomas A. Agbaedeng, John L. Fitzgerald, Celine Gallagher, Melissa E. Middeldorp and Prashanthan Sander

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Published Online August 17, 2021Background: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods: We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings: Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35–2·58; 37% [95% UI 32–43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. Interpretation: Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.Katherine R Paulson ... Muktar Beshir Ahmed ... Dinesh Bhandari ... Liliana G Ciobanu ... Tiffany K Gill ... Zohra S Lassi ... Jean Jacques Noubiap ... Gizachew Assefa Tessema ... et al. (GBD 2019 Under-5 Mortality Collaborators