Methods for estimating uncertainty in PMF solutions : Examples with ambient air and water quality data and guidance on reporting PMF results

The new version of EPA's positive matrix factorization (EPA PMF) software, 5.0, includes three error estimation (EE) methods for analyzing factor analytic solutions: classical bootstrap (BS), displacement of factor elements (DISP), and bootstrap enhanced by displacement (BS-DISP). These methods capture the uncertainty of PMF analyses due to randomerrors and rotational ambiguity. To demonstrate the utility of the EEmethods, results are presented for three data sets: (1) speciated PM2.5 data froma chemical speciation network (CSN) site in Sacramento, California (2003-2009); (2) trace metal, ammonia, and other species inwater quality samples taken at an inline storage system (ISS) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (2006); and (3) an organic aerosol data set from high- resolution aerosolmass spectrometer (HR-AMS) measurements in Las Vegas, Nevada (January 2008). We present an interpretation of EE diagnostics for these data sets, results fromsensitivity tests of EE diagnostics using additional and fewer factors, and recommendations for reporting PMF results. BS-DISP and BS are found useful in understanding the uncertainty of factor profiles; they also suggest if the data are over-fitted by specifying toomany factors. DISP diagnosticswere consistently robust, indicating its use for understanding rotational uncertainty and as a first step in assessing a solution's viability. The uncertainty of each factor's identifying species is shown to be a useful gauge for evaluating multiple solutions, e.g., with a different number of factors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).Peer reviewe

The Spectroscopic Age of 47 Tuc

High signal-to-noise integrated spectra of the metal-rich globular cluster 47 Tuc, spanning the H-gamma(HR) and Fe4668 line indices, have been obtained. The combination of these indices has been suggested (Jones & Worthey 1995, ApJ, 446, L31) as the best available mechanism for cleanly separating the age-metallicity degeneracy which hampers the dating of distant, unresolved, elliptical galaxies. For the first time, we apply this technique to a nearby spheroidal system, 47 Tuc, for which independent ages, based upon more established methods, exist. Such an independent test of the technique's suitability has not been attempted before, but is an essential one before its application to more distant, unresolved, stellar populations can be considered valid. Because of its weak series of Balmer lines, relative to model spectra, our results imply a spectroscopic ``age'' for 47 Tuc well in excess of 20 Gyr, at odds with the colour-magnitude diagram age of 14+/-1 Gyr. The derived metal abundance, however, is consistent with the known value. Emission ``fill-in'' of the H-gamma line as the source of the discrepancy cannot be entirely excluded by existing data, although the observational constraints are restrictive.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, LaTeX, accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal, also available at http://casa.colorado.edu/~bgibson/publications.htm

Primary Sources of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons to Streambed Sediment in Great Lakes Tributaries Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most widespread and potentially toxic contaminants in Great Lakes (USA/Canada) tributaries. The sources of PAHs are numerous and diverse, and identifying the primary source(s) can be difficult. The present study used multiple lines of evidence to determine the likely sources of PAHs to surficial streambed sediments at 71 locations across 26 Great Lakes Basin watersheds. Profile correlations, principal component analysis, positive matrix factorization source-receptor modeling, and mass fractions analysis were used to identify potential PAH sources, and land-use analysis was used to relate streambed sediment PAH concentrations to different land uses. Based on the common conclusion of these analyses, coal-tar-sealed pavement was the most likely source of PAHs to the majority of the locations sampled. The potential PAH-related toxicity of streambed sediments to aquatic organisms was assessed by comparison of concentrations with sediment quality guidelines. The sum concentration of 16 US Environmental Protection Agency priority pollutant PAHs was 7.4-196 000 mu g/kg, and the median was 2600 mu g/kg. The threshold effect concentration was exceeded at 62% of sampling locations, and the probable effect concentration or the equilibrium partitioning sediment benchmark was exceeded at 41% of sampling locations. These results have important implications for watershed managers tasked with protecting and remediating aquatic habitats in the Great Lakes Basin.Environ Toxicol Chem2020;00:1-17. (c) 2020 The Authors.Environmental Toxicology and Chemistrypublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.Peer reviewe

Associations of Air Pollution and Pediatric Asthma in Cleveland, Ohio

Air pollution has been associated with poor health outcomes and continues to be a risk factor for respiratory health in children. While higher particulate matter (PM) levels are associated with increased frequency of symptoms, lower lung function, and increase airway inflammation from asthma, the precise composition of the particles that are more highly associated with poor health outcomes or healthcare utilization are not fully elucidated. PM is measured quantifiably by current air pollution monitoring systems. To better determine sources of PM and speciation of such sources, a particulate matter (PM) source apportionment study, the Cleveland Multiple Air Pollutant Study (CMAPS), was conducted in Cleveland, Ohio, in 2009–2010, which allowed more refined assessment of associations with health outcomes. This article presents an evaluation of short-term (daily) and long-term associations between motor vehicle and industrial air pollution components and pediatric asthma emergency department (ED) visits by evaluating two sets of air quality data with healthcare utilization for pediatric asthma. Exposure estimates were developed using land use regression models for long-term exposures for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and coarse (i.e., with aerodynamic diameters between 2.5 and 10 μm) particulate matter (PM) and the US EPA Positive Matrix Factorization receptor model for short-term exposures to fine (μm) and coarse PM components. Exposure metrics from these two approaches were used in asthma ED visit prevalence and time series analyses to investigate seasonal-averaged short- and long-term impacts of both motor vehicles and industry emissions. Increased pediatric asthma ED visits were found for LUR coarse PM and NO2 estimates, which were primarily contributed by motor vehicles. Consistent, statistically significant associations with pediatric asthma visits were observed, with short-term exposures to components of fine and coarse iron PM associated with steel production. Our study is the first to combine spatial and time series analysis of ED visits for asthma using the same periods and shows that PM related to motor vehicle emissions and iron/steel production are associated with increased pediatric asthma visits

The Extended Main-Sequence Turn-off Clusters of the Large Magellanic Cloud - Missing links in Globular Cluster Evolution

Recent observations of intermediate age (1 - 3 Gyr) massive star clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) have revealed that the majority possess bifurcated or extended main-sequence turn-off (EMSTO) morphologies. This effect can be understood to arise from subsequent star formation amongst the stellar population with age differences between constituent stars amounting to 50 - 300 Myr. Age spreads of this order are similarly invoked to explain the light element abundance variations witnessed in ancient globular clusters. In this paper we explore the proposition that the clusters exhibiting the EMSTO phenomenon are a general phase in the evolution of massive clusters, one that naturally leads to the particular chemical properties of the ancient globular cluster population. We show that the isolation of EMSTO clusters to intermediate ages is the consequence of observational selection effects. In our proposed scenario, the EMSTO phenomenon is identical to that which establishes the light element abundance variations that are ubiquitous in the ancient globular cluster population. Our scenario makes a strong prediction: EMSTO clusters will exhibit abundance variations in the light elements characteristic of the ancient GC population.Comment: ApJ accepted. 33 pages, 5 figure

Plasma adiponectin levels are associated with circulating inflammatory cytokines in autoantibody positive first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis patients

Background Extra-articular manifestations of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), potentially due to systemic inflammation, include cardiovascular disease and sarcopenic obesity. Adiponectin, an adipose-derived cytokine, has been implicated in inflammatory processes in RA, but little is known regarding its association with inflammation in a pre-clinical period. Therefore, we investigated whether adiponectin was associated with inflammatory markers in individuals at risk for RA, and whether RA-related autoimmunity modifies these associations. Methods We analyzed samples from 144 first-degree relatives (FDRs) of RA probands, of whom 23 were positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody and/or ≥ 2 rheumatoid factor isotypes (IgM, IgG or IgA). We called this phenotype the ‘high risk autoantibody profile (HRP)’ as it has been shown in prior work to be >96% specific for future RA. We measured adiponectin, cytokines, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). Using linear mixed effects models, we evaluated interaction between HRP positivity and adiponectin on inflammatory markers, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, pack-years smoking, and use of cholesterol-lowering medications. Results In everyone, adiponectin concentration was inversely associated with hsCRP and IL-1β in adjusted models, where a 1% higher adiponectin was associated with a 26% lower hsCRP (p = 0.04) and a 26% lower IL-1β (p = 0.04). Significant interactions between HRP and adiponectin for associations with GM-CSF, IL-6, and IL-9 were detected in fully adjusted models (p = 0.0006, p = 0.006, p = 0.01, respectively). In HRP positive FDRs but not HRP negative FDRs, a 1% higher adiponectin was associated with 97% higher GM-CSF, 73% higher IL-6, and 54% higher IL-9 concentrations. Conclusions Adiponectin associates with inflammatory markers, and these associations differ in individuals with a high-risk autoantibody profile compared with those without. The interaction between adiponectin and autoimmunity warrants further investigation into the potential systemic effects of RA-related autoantibodies and adiponectin on inflammation in the absence of clinically apparent RA

Steroid therapy and outcome of parapneumonic pleural effusions (STOPPE): Study protocol for a multicenter, double-blinded, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a major global disease. Parapneumonic effusions often complicate CAP and range from uninfected (simple) to infected (complicated) parapneumonic effusions and empyema (pus). CAP patients who have a pleural effusion at presentation are more likely to require hospitalization, have a longer length of stay and higher mortality than those without an effusion. Conventional management of pleural infection, with antibiotics and chest tube drainage, fails in about 30% of cases. Several randomized controlled trials (RCT) have evaluated the use of corticosteroids in CAP and demonstrated some potential benefits. Importantly, steroid use in pneumonia has an acceptable safety profile with no adverse impact on mortality. A RCT focused on pediatric patients with pneumonia and a parapneumonic effusion demonstrated shorter time to recovery. The effects of corticosteroid use on clinical outcomes in adults with parapneumonic effusions have not been tested. We hypothesize that parapneumonic effusions develop from an exaggerated pleural inflammatory response. Treatment with systemic steroids may dampen the inflammation and lead to improved clinical outcomes. The steroid therapy and outcome of parapneumonic pleural effusions (STOPPE) trial will assess the efficacy and safety of systemic corticosteroid as an adjunct therapy in adult patients with CAP and pleural effusions. METHODS: STOPPE is a pilot multicenter, double-blinded, placebo-controlled RCT that will randomize 80 patients with parapneumonic effusions (2:1) to intravenous dexamethasone or placebo, administered twice daily for 48 hours. This exploratory study will capture a wide range of clinically relevant endpoints which have been used in clinical trials of pneumonia and/or pleural infection; including, but not limited to: time to clinical stability, inflammatory markers, quality of life, length of hospital stay, proportion of patients requiring escalation of care (thoracostomy or thoracoscopy), and mortality. Safety will be assessed by monitoring for the incidence of adverse events during the study. DISCUSSION: STOPPE is the first trial to assess the efficacy and safety profile of systemic corticosteroids in adults with CAP and pleural effusions. This will inform future studies on feasibility and appropriate trial endpoints. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN1261800094720

The Evolution of Copper in the Globular Cluster Omega Centauri

Copper abundances are presented for 40 red-giant stars in Omega Cen as well as 15 red-giant members of the globular clusters NGC288, NGC362, NGC3201, NGC6752, and M4. A comparison with the halo field star pattern indicates that, unlike the field stars, Omega Cen displays a constant ratio of [Cu/Fe] -0.5 all the way from [Fe/H]=-2.0 to -0.8. At the metallicity of [Fe/H]= -0.8, the values of [Cu/Fe] in Omega Cen fall below the corresponding mean ratio in the field stars by roughly 0.5 dex. If copper is produced primarily in type Ia supernovae (SN Ia), the lack of an increase in [Cu/Fe] in Omega Cen would suggest very little contribution from SN Ia to its chemical evolution within the metallicity range from [Fe/H] of -2.0 up to -0.8.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables, submitted to Astronomical Journal. Previous version missing 2 figures and 6 table

The halo+cluster system of the Galactic globular cluster NGC 1851

NGC 1851 is surrounded by a stellar component that extends more than 10 times beyond the tidal radius. Although the nature of this stellar structure is not known, it has been suggested to be a sparse halo of stars or associated with a stellar stream. We analyse the nature of this intriguing stellar component surrounding NGC 1851 by investigating its radial velocities and chemical composition, in particular in comparison with those of the central cluster analysed in a homogeneous manner. In total we observed 23 stars in the halo with radial velocities consistent with NGC 1851, and for 15 of them we infer [Fe/H] abundances. Our results show that (i) stars dynamically linked to NGC 1851 are present at least up to ̃2.5 tidal radii, supporting the presence of a halo of stars surrounding the cluster; (ii) apart from the NGC 1851 radial velocity-like stars, our observed velocity distribution agrees with that expected from Galactic models, suggesting that no other substructure (such as a stream) at different radial velocities is present in our field; (iii) the chemical abundances for the s-process elements Sr and Ba are consistent with the s-normal stars observed in NGC 1851; (iv) all halo stars have metallicities, and abundances for the other studied elements Ca, Mg and Cr, consistent with those exhibited by the cluster. The complexity of the whole NGC 1851 cluster+halo system may agree with the scenario of a tidally disrupted dwarf galaxy in which NGC 1851 was originally embedded