Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests

Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, chemical and biological environment that tropical trees grow in has been altered over recent decades across large areas of the tropics, and (ii) the theoretical, experimental and observational evidence regarding the most likely effects of each of these changes on tropical forests. Ten potential widespread drivers of environmental change were identified: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, climatic extremes (including El Niño Southern Oscillation events), atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nutrient deposition, O3/acid depositions, hunting, land-use change and increasing liana numbers. We note that each of these environmental changes is expected to leave a unique 'fingerprint' in tropical forests, as drivers directly force different processes, have different distributions in space and time and may affect some forests more than others (e.g. depending on soil fertility). Thus, in the third part of the paper we present testable a priori predictions of forest responses to assist ecologists in attributing particular changes in forests to particular causes across multiple datasets. Finally, we discuss how these drivers may change in the future and the possible consequences for tropical forests

Concerted changes in tropical forest structure and dynamics: evidence from 50 South American long-term plots

Several widespread changes in the ecology of old-growth tropical forests have recently been documented for the late twentieth century, in particular an increase in stem turnover (pan-tropical), and an increase in above-ground biomass (neotropical). Whether these changes are synchronous and whether changes in growth are also occurring is not known. We analysed stand-level changes within 50 long-term. monitoring plots from across South America spanning 1971-2002. We show that: (i) basal area (BA: sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees in a plot) increased significantly over time (by 0.10 +/- 0.04 m(2) ha(-1) yr(-1), mean +/- 95% CI); as did both (ii) stand-level BA growth rates (sum of the increments of BA of surviving trees and BA of new trees that recruited into a plot); and (iii) stand-level BA mortality rates (sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees that died in a plot). Similar patterns were observed on a per-stem basis: (i) stem density (number of stems per hectare; 1 hectare is 10(4) m(2)) increased significantly over time (0.94 +/- 0.63 stems ha(-1) yr(-1)); as did both (ii) stem recruitment rates; and (iii) stem mortality rates. In relative terms, the pools of BA and stem density increased by 0.38 +/- 0.15% and 0.18 +/- 0.12% yr(-1), respectively. The fluxes into and out of these pools-stand-level BA growth, stand-level BA mortality, stem recruitment and stem mortality rates-increased, in relative terms, by an order of magnitude more. The gain terms (BA growth, stem recruitment) consistently exceeded the loss terms (BA loss, stem mortality) throughout the period, suggesting that whatever process is driving these changes was already acting before the plot network was established. Large long-term increases in stand-level BA growth and simultaneous increases in stand BA and stem density imply a continent-wide increase in resource availability which is increasing net primary productivity and altering forest dynamics. Continent-wide changes in incoming solar radiation, and increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and air temperatures may have increased resource supply over recent decades, thus causing accelerated growth and increased dynamism across the world's largest tract of tropical forest

Longitudinal Study of Antimicrobial Resistance among Escherichia coli Isolates from Integrated Multisite Cohorts of Humans and Swine

In a 3-year longitudinal study, we examined the relationship between the seasonal prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant (AR) Escherichia coli isolates from human wastewater and swine fecal samples and the following risk factors: the host species, the production type (swine), the vocation (human swine workers, non-swine workers, and slaughter plant workers), and the season, in a multisite, vertically integrated swine and human population representative of a closed agri-food system. Human and swine E. coli (n = 4,048 and 3,429, respectively) isolates from wastewater and fecal samples were tested for antimicrobial susceptibility, using the Sensititre broth microdilution system. There were significant (P < 0.05) differences among AR E. coli prevalence levels of (i) the host species, in which swine isolates were at higher risk for resistance to tetracycline, kanamycin, ceftiofur, gentamicin, streptomycin, chloramphenicol, sulfisoxazole, and ampicillin; (ii) the swine production group, in which purchased boars, nursery piglets, and breeding boars isolates had a higher risk of resistance to streptomycin and tetracycline; and iii) the vocation cohorts, in which swine worker cohort isolates exhibited lower sulfisoxazole and cefoxitin prevalence than the non-swine worker cohorts, while the slaughter plant worker cohort isolates exhibited elevated cefoxitin prevalence compared to that of non-swine workers. While a high variability was observed among seasonal samples over the 3-year period, no significant temporal trends were apparent. There were significant differences in the prevalence levels of multidrug-resistant isolates between host species, with swine at a higher risk of carrying multidrug-resistant strains than humans. Considering vocation, slaughter plant workers were at higher risk of exhibiting multidrug-resistant E. coli than non-swine workers

Epidemiological Study of Mycobacterium bovis Infection in Buffalo and Cattle in Amazonas, Brazil.

Bovine Tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic disease in about one hundred countries, affecting the economy causing a decrease in productivity, condemnation of meat, and damaging the credibility on international trade. Additionally, Mycobacterium bovis the major causative agent for BTB can also infect humans causing a variety of clinical presentations. The aim of this study was to determine BTB prevalence and the main risk factors for theMycobacterium bovis prevalence in cattle and buffalos in Amazonas State, Brazil. Tissue samples from 151 animals (45 buffalo and 106 cattle from five herds with buffalo only, 22 herds with cattle only, and 12 herds with buffalo and cattle) were obtained from slaughterhouses under State Veterinary Inspection. M. bovis were isolated on Stonebrink medium. The positive cultures were confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. The apparent herd and animal prevalence rates were 56.4 and 5.40%, respectively. Regarding animal species, the apparent prevalence rates were 3% in cattle and 11.8% in buffalo. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) with random effect were used to assess the association with risk factors on the prevalence. Species (buffalo), herds size (>100 animals) and the presence of both species (buffalo and cattle) in the herd were the major risk factors for the infection by Mycobacterium bovis in the region. The findings reveal an urgent need for evidence-based effective intervention to reduce BTB prevalence in cattle and buffalo and prevent its spread to the human population. Studies are needed to understand why buffalo are more likely to be infected by M. bovis than cattle in Amazon. Recommendations for zoning, use of data from the inspection services to generate information regarding BTB focus, adoption of epidemiological tools, and discouragement of practices that promote the mixing of cattle and buffalo, were made

Elevated CO₂ does not increase eucalypt forest productivity on a low-phosphorus soil

Rising atmospheric CO2 stimulates photosynthesis and productivity of forests, offsetting CO2 emissions. Elevated CO2 experiments in temperate planted forests yielded ~23% increases in productivity over the initial years. Whether similar CO2 stimulation occurs in mature evergreen broadleaved forests on low-phosphorus (P) soils is unknown, largely due to lack of experimental evidence. This knowledge gap creates major uncertainties in future climate projections as a large part of the tropics is P-limited. Here,we increased atmospheric CO2 concentration in a mature broadleaved evergreen eucalypt forest for three years, in the first large-scale experiment on a P-limited site. We show that tree growth and other aboveground productivity components did not significantly increase in response to elevated CO2 in three years, despite a sustained 19% increase in leaf photosynthesis. Moreover, tree growth in ambient CO2 was strongly P-limited and increased by ~35% with added phosphorus. The findings suggest that P availability may potentially constrain CO2-enhanced productivity in P-limited forests; hence, future atmospheric CO2 trajectories may be higher than predicted by some models. As a result, coupled climate-carbon models should incorporate both nitrogen and phosphorus limitations to vegetation productivity in estimating future carbon sinks

Measurement of the local Jahn-Teller distortion in LaMnO_3.006

The atomic pair distribution function (PDF) of stoichiometric LaMnO_3 has been measured. This has been fit with a structural model to extract the local Jahn-Teller distortion for an ideal Mn(3+)O_6 octahedron. These results are compared to Rietveld refinements of the same data which give the average structure. Since the local structure is being measured in the PDF there is no assumption of long-range orbital order and the real, local, Jahn-Teller distortion is measured directly. We find good agreement both with published crystallographic results and our own Rietveld refinements suggesting that in an accurately stoichiometric material there is long range orbital order as expected. The local Jahn-Teller distortion has 2 short, 2 medium and 2 long bonds.Comment: 5 pages, 3 postscript figures, minor change

Bio-energy retains its mitigation potential under elevated CO2

Background If biofuels are to be a viable substitute for fossil fuels, it is essential that they retain their potential to mitigate climate change under future atmospheric conditions. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] stimulates plant biomass production; however, the beneficial effects of increased production may be offset by higher energy costs in crop management. Methodology/Main findings We maintained full size poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) systems under both current ambient and future elevated [CO2] (550 ppm) and estimated their net energy and greenhouse gas balance. We show that a poplar SRC system is energy efficient and produces more energy than required for coppice management. Even more, elevated [CO2] will increase the net energy production and greenhouse gas balance of a SRC system with 18%. Managing the trees in shorter rotation cycles (i.e. 2 year cycles instead of 3 year cycles) will further enhance the benefits from elevated [CO2] on both the net energy and greenhouse gas balance. Conclusions/significance Adapting coppice management to the future atmospheric [CO2] is necessary to fully benefit from the climate mitigation potential of bio-energy systems. Further, a future increase in potential biomass production due to elevated [CO2] outweighs the increased production costs resulting in a northward extension of the area where SRC is greenhouse gas neutral. Currently, the main part of the European terrestrial carbon sink is found in forest biomass and attributed to harvesting less than the annual growth in wood. Because SRC is intensively managed, with a higher turnover in wood production than conventional forest, northward expansion of SRC is likely to erode the European terrestrial carbon sink

Grand Challenges in Understanding the Interplay of Climate and Land Changes

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts