The very long-term risk and predictors of recurrent ischaemic events after a stroke at a young age: The FUTURE study.

INTRODUCTION: Patients who suffer a stroke at a young age, remain at a substantial risk of developing recurrent vascular events and information on very long-term prognosis and its risk factors is indispensable. Our aim is to investigate this very long-term risk and associated risk factors up to 35 years after stroke. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospective cohort study among 656 patients with a first-ever ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic stroke (TIA), aged 18-50, who visited our hospital (1980-2010). Outcomes assessed at follow-up (2014-2015) included TIA or ischaemic stroke and other arterial events, whichever occurred first. Kaplan-Meier analysis quantified cumulative risks. A prediction model was constructed to assess risk factors independently associated with any ischaemic event using Cox proportional hazard analyses followed by bootstrap validation procedure to avoid overestimation. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 12.4 (SD 8.2) years (8105 person-years). Twenty-five years cumulative risk was 45.4% (95%CI: 39.4-51.5) for any ischaemic event, 30.1% (95%CI: 24.8-35.4) for cerebral ischaemia and 27.0% (95%CI: 21.1-33.0) for other arterial events. Risk factors retained in the prediction model were smoking (HR 1.35, 95%CI: 1.04-1.74), poor kidney function (HR 2.10, 95%CI: 1.32-3.35), history of peripheral arterial disease (HR 2.10, 95%CI: 1.08-3.76) and cardiac disease (HR 1.84, 95%CI: 1.06-3.18) (C-statistic 0.59 (95%CI: 0.55-0.64)). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Young stroke patients remain at a substantial risk for recurrent events; almost 1 of 2 develops a recurrent ischaemic event and 1 of 3 develops a recurrent stroke or TIA during 25 years of follow-up. Risk factors independently associated with recurrent events were poor kidney function, smoking, history of peripheral arterial disease and cardiac disease.The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: Frank-Erik de Leeuw received research support from the ‘‘Dutch Epilepsy Fund’’ (grant number 2010-18), ‘Dutch Heart Foundation’ (clinical established investigator grant, grant number 2014-T060) and ‘‘The Dutch Organisation for Health Research and Development’’ (VIDI innovational grant, ZonMw, grant number 016-126-351). Loes Rutten- Jacobs was supported by a British Heart Foundation Immediate Research Fellowship (FS/15/61/31626) (www. bhf.org.uk).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE Publications via https://doi.org/10.1177/239698731667344