MCMC parameter values per iteration.

<p>The traces of the MCMC chain (grey line) show that the chain has converged, indicating that there is no apparent drift. The last Fig also shows the error variances for each observed variable.</p

Movement with all exposed class in SEIRS Model.

<p>Depicts the flow chart of the SEIRS model.</p

Univariate analysis for potential risk factors.

<p>Univariate analysis for potential risk factors.</p

Snapshot of the exposed population.

<p>The spread of the disease in the discrete transform peaked at 240 days (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098288#pone-0098288-g007" target="_blank">Figure 7B</a>), and at 240 days and 280 days (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098288#pone-0098288-g007" target="_blank">Figure 7C</a>) due to large coefficients. The range of frequencies used in averaging is indicated by the arrow at 240 days, which corresponds to the peak of the disease spread (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098288#pone-0098288-g007" target="_blank">Figure 7C</a>).</p

Summary of the estimated parameters, standard errors, t values and p-values.

<p>Where <i>β</i> = the contact rate between susceptible individuals and exposed or HIV-infected individuals, <i>α</i> = removal rate, <i>μ</i> = nature death rate, <i>δ</i> = the portion of HIV-infected individuals, <i>ρ</i> = disease-induced mortality rate of <i>A</i>₁(<i>t</i>), <i>ε</i> = disease-induced mortality rate of <i>A</i>₂(<i>t</i>), <i>σ</i> = disease-induced mortality rate of <i>I</i>(<i>t</i>), <i>π</i> = the portion of individuals infected with HIV, <i>b</i> = birth rate, <i>γ</i> = is the rate at which an individual will fully move from <i>A</i>₁(<i>t</i>) class to <i>A</i>₂(<i>t</i>) class.</p><p>Summary of the estimated parameters, standard errors, t values and p-values.</p

Summary of sensitivity values.

<p>Where <i>β</i> = the contact rate between susceptible individuals and exposed or HIV-infected individuals, <i>α</i> = removal rate, <i>μ</i> = nature death rate, <i>δ</i> = the portion of HIV-infected individuals, <i>ρ</i> = disease-induced mortality rate of <i>A</i>₁(<i>t</i>), <i>ε</i> = disease-induced mortality rate of <i>A</i>₂(<i>t</i>), <i>σ</i> = disease-induced mortality rate of <i>I</i>(<i>t</i>), <i>π</i> = the portion of individuals infected with HIV, <i>b</i> = birth rate, <i>γ</i> = is the rate at which an individual will fully move from <i>A</i>₁(<i>t</i>) class to <i>A</i>₂(<i>t</i>) class.</p><p>Summary of sensitivity values.</p

Schematic representation of the <i>SIA</i>₁<i>A</i>₂ model.

<p>The flow chart of the <i>SIA</i>₁<i>A</i>₂ model.</p

A dynamic spread process.

<p>Depict the geographical distribution of the propagation of disease spread clusters for 40.</p

A dynamic spread process.

<p>Depict the geographical distribution of the propagation of disease spread clusters for 65 simulations.</p

Sensitivity range of yearly reported HIV and AIDS cases.

<p>The high variances were observed in the following compartment order: <i>A</i>₁ > <i>A</i>₂ > <i>I</i> > <i>S</i>. This shows that there was predictive accuracy of the model reflected by the variance of the predictive distribution. The large number for the variance is due to either the uncertainties in the model or noise in data collection, and the model fit the noisy data reasonably well.</p