Streamlined variational inference for higher level group-specific curve models

© 2020 Statistical Modeling Society. A two-level group-specific curve model is such that the mean response of each member of a group is a separate smooth function of a predictor of interest. The three-level extension is such that one grouping variable is nested within another one, and higher level extensions are analogous. Streamlined variational inference for higher level group-specific curve models is a challenging problem. We confront it by systematically working through two-level and then three-level cases and making use of the higher level sparse matrix infrastructure laid down in (Nolan and Wand (2020), ANZIAM Journal, doi: 10.1017/S1446181120000061). A motivation is analysis of data from ultrasound technology for which three-level group-specific curve models are appropriate. Whilst extension to the number of levels exceeding three is not covered explicitly, the pattern established by our systematic approach sheds light on what is required for even higher level group-specific curve models

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey. IX. The interstellar medium seen through Diffuse Interstellar Bands and neutral sodium

The Tarantula Nebula (30 Dor) is a spectacular star-forming region in the Large Magellanic Cloud, seen through gas in the Galactic Disc and Halo. Diffuse Interstellar Bands offer a unique probe of the diffuse, cool-warm gas in these regions. The aim is to use DIBs as diagnostics of the local interstellar conditions, whilst at the same time deriving properties of the yet-unknown carriers. Spectra of over 800 early-type stars from the VLT Flames Tarantula Survey (VFTS) were analysed. Maps were created, separately, for the Galactic and LMC absorption in the DIBs at 4428 and 6614 Ang and - in a smaller region near the central cluster R136 - neutral sodium (Na I D); we also measured the DIBs at 5780 and 5797 Ang. The maps show strong 4428 and 6614 Ang DIBs in the quiescent cloud complex to the south of 30 Dor but weak absorption in the harsher environments to the north (bubbles) and near the OB associations. The Na maps show at least five kinematic components in the LMC and a shell-like structure surrounding R136, and small-scale structure in the Milky Way. The strengths of the 4428, 5780, 5797 and 6614 Ang DIBs are correlated, also with Na absorption and visual extinction. The strong 4428 Ang DIB is present already at low Na column density but the 6614, 5780 and 5797 Ang DIBs start to be detectable at subsequently larger Na column densities. The relative strength of the 5780 and 5797 Ang DIBs clearly confirm the Tarantula Nebula and Galactic high-latitude gas to represent a harsh radiation environment. The resilience of the 4428 Ang DIB suggests its carrier is large, compact and neutral. Structure is detected in the distribution of cool-warm gas on scales between one and >100 pc in the LMC and as little as 0.01 pc in the Sun's vicinity. Stellar winds from the central cluster R136 have created an expanding shell; some infalling gas is also detected, reminiscent of a galactic "fountain".Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Variations in subclinical left ventricular dysfunction, functional capacity, and clinical outcomes in different heart failure aetiologies

Aims: Patients with heart failure (HF) risk factors are described as being in Stage A of this condition (SAHF). Management is directed towards prevention of HF progression, but to date, no evidence has been described to align the intensity of this intervention to HF risk. We sought to what extent SAHF of Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and other HF risks showed differences in subclinical left ventricular function, exercise capacity, and prognosis.Methods and Results: We recruited 551 elder asymptomatic SAHF patients (age 71 ± 5 years, 49% men, 290 T2DM) with at least one risk factor from a community-based population with preserved ejection fraction. All underwent a comprehensive echocardiogram including global longitudinal strain (GLS) and a 6 min walk test and were followed for 2 years. The primary endpoints were new-onset HF and all-cause mortality. The T2DM group was associated with reduced 6 min walk test distance (451 ± 111 vs. 493 ± 87 m, P P = 0.028), and impaired GLS (-17.7 ± 2.6% vs. -19.0 ± 2.6%, P P = 0.021). In Cox models, obesity [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.46; P = 0.007], atrial fibrillation (HR = 2.39; P = 0.028), 6 min walk distance (HR = 0.99; P = 0.034), and GLS (HR = 1.14; P = 0.033) were independently associated with the primary endpoint in T2DM-SAHF, independent of age and glycaemic control.Conclusions: The T2DM-SAHF has worse subclinical left ventricular function, exercise capacity, and prognosis than other-SAHF. Impaired GLS, atrial fibrillation, exercise capacity, and obesity are associated with a worse prognosis in T2DM-SAHF but not in other-SAHF

Association between electrocardiographic and echocardiographic markers of stage B heart failure and cardiovascular outcome

Aims: The detection of non-ischaemic (mainly hypertension, diabetes, and obesity) stage B heart failure (SBHF) may facilitate the recognition of those at risk of progression to overt HF and HF prevention. We sought the relationship of specific electrocardiographic (ECG) markers of SBHF to echocardiographic features of SBHF and their prognostic value for development of HF. The ECG markers were Cornell product (Cornell-P), P-wave terminal force in lead V1 (PTFV1), ST depression in lead V5 V6 (minSTmV5V6), and increased heart rate. Echocardiographic assessment of SBHF included left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), impaired global longitudinal strain (GLS), and diastolic dysfunction (DD).Methods and Results: Asymptomatic subjects ≥65 years without prior cardiac history, but with HF risks, were recruited from the local community. At baseline, they underwent clinical assessment, 12-lead ECG, and comprehensive echocardiography. New HF was assessed clinically at mean follow-up of 14 ± 4 months, and echocardiography was repeated in subjects with HF. Of the 447 study subjects (age 71 ± 5, 47% men) with SBHF, 13% had LVH, 32% impaired GLS, and 65% ≥grade I DD (10% ≥grade II DD). Forty were lost to follow-up. Clinical HF developed in 47 of 407, of whom 20% had echocardiographic LVH, 51% abnormal GLS, and 76% DD at baseline. Baseline LVH and abnormal GLS (not grade I DD) were independently associated with outcomes (clinical HF and cardiovascular death). Cornell-P and heart rate (not minSTmV5V6 nor PTFV1) were independently associated with LVH, impaired GLS, and DD. Cornell-P and minSTV5V6 (not heart rate nor PTFV1) were independently associated with outcomes. More ECG abnormalities improved sensitivity, but ECG-markers were not independent of or incremental to echocardiographic markers to predict HF in SBHF.Conclusions: In this elderly study population, ECG markers showed low diagnostic sensitivity for non-ischaemic SBHF and low prognostic value for outcomes. Cornell-P and minSTmV5V6 had predictive value for outcomes in non-ischaemic SBHF independent of age, gender, and common comorbidities but were not incremental to echocardiography

The Onfp Class in the Magellanic Clouds

The Onfp class of rotationally broadened, hot spectra was defined some time ago in the Galaxy, where its membership to date numbers only eight. The principal defining characteristic is a broad, centrally reversed He II $\lambda$4686 emission profile; other emission and absorption lines are also rotationally broadened. Recent surveys in the Magellanic Clouds (MCs) have brought the class membership there, including some related spectra, to 28. We present a survey of the spectral morphology and rotational velocities, as a first step toward elucidating the nature of this class. Evolved, rapidly rotating hot stars are not expected theoretically, because the stellar winds should brake the rotation. Luminosity classification of these spectra is not possible, because the principal criterion (He II $\lambda$4686) is peculiar; however, the MCs provide reliable absolute magnitudes, which show that they span the entire range from dwarfs to supergiants. The Onfp line-broadening distribution is distinct and shifted toward larger values from those of normal O dwarfs and supergiants with >99.99% confidence. All cases with multiple observations show line-profile variations, which even remove some objects from the class temporarily. Some of them are spectroscopic binaries; it is possible that the peculiar profiles may have multiple causes among different objects. The origin and future of these stars are intriguing; for instance, they could be stellar mergers and/or gamma-ray-burst progenitors.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables; AJ accepte

Molecular approaches to trematode systematics: 'best practice' and implications for future study

To date, morphological analysis has been the cornerstone to trematode systematics. However, since the late-1980s we have seen an increased integration of genetic data to overcome problems encountered when morphological data are considered in isolation. Here, we provide advice regarding the ‘best molecular practice’ for trematode taxonomy and systematic studies, in an attempt to help unify the field and provide a solid foundation to underpin future work. Emphasis is placed on defining the study goals and recommendations are made regarding sample preservation, extraction methods, and the submission of molecular vouchers. We advocate generating sequence data from all parasite species/host species/geographic location combinations and stress the importance of selecting two independently evolving loci (one ribosomal and one mitochondrial marker). We recommend that loci should be chosen to provide genetic variation suitable to address the question at hand and for which sufficient ‘useful’ comparative sequence data already exist. Quality control of the molecular data via using proof-reading Taq polymerase, sequencing PCR amplicons using both forward and reverse primers, ensuring that a minimum of 85% overlap exists when constructing consensus sequences, and checking electropherograms by eye is stressed. We advise that all genetic results are best interpreted using a holistic biological approach, which considers morphology, host identity, collection locality, and ecology. Finally, we consider what advances next-generation sequencing holds for trematode taxonomy and systematics

Candidate chiral twin bands in the odd-odd nucleus 132 Cs : Exploring the limits of chirality in the mass A ≈ 130 region

High-spin states in the doubly odd $N=77$ nucleus ${}^{132}\mathrm{Cs}$ have been studied. The known positive-parity structures have been extended. \ensuremath{\gamma}-ray linear-polarization and angular-correlation measurements have been performed to establish the spin and parity assignment of these structures. A new chiral partner of the \ensuremath{\pi}{h}_{11/2}\ensuremath{\bigotimes}\ensuremath{\nu}{h}_{11/2} band has been proposed. Three-dimensional tilted axis cranking model calculations have been performed and compared with the experimental results

Search for gamma-ray emission from magnetars with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

We report on the search for 0.1-10 GeV emission from magnetars in 17 months of Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) observations. No significant evidence for gamma-ray emission from any of the currently-known magnetars is found. The most stringent upper limits to date on their persistent emission in the Fermi-LAT energy range are estimated between ~10^{-12}-10^{-10} erg/s/cm2, depending on the source. We also searched for gamma-ray pulsations and possible outbursts, also with no significant detection. The upper limits derived support the presence of a cut-off at an energy below a few MeV in the persistent emission of magnetars. They also show the likely need for a revision of current models of outer gap emission from strongly magnetized pulsars, which, in some realizations, predict detectable GeV emission from magnetars at flux levels exceeding the upper limits identified here using the Fermi-LAT observations.Comment: ApJ Letters in press; Corresponding authors: Caliandro G. A., Hadasch D., Rea N., Burnett

Detection of Gamma-Ray Emission from the Starburst Galaxies M82 and NGC 253 with the Large Area Telescope on Fermi

We report the detection of high-energy gamma-ray emission from two starburst galaxies using data obtained with the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. Steady point-like emission above 200 MeV has been detected at significance levels of 6.8 sigma and 4.8 sigma respectively, from sources positionally coincident with locations of the starburst galaxies M82 and NGC 253. The total fluxes of the sources are consistent with gamma-ray emission originating from the interaction of cosmic rays with local interstellar gas and radiation fields and constitute evidence for a link between massive star formation and gamma-ray emission in star-forming galaxies.Comment: Submitted to ApJ Letter

Fermi Gamma-ray Imaging of a Radio Galaxy

The Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope has detected the gamma-ray glow emanating from the giant radio lobes of the radio galaxy Centaurus A. The resolved gamma-ray image shows the lobes clearly separated from the central active source. In contrast to all other active galaxies detected so far in high-energy gamma-rays, the lobe flux constitutes a considerable portion (>1/2) of the total source emission. The gamma-ray emission from the lobes is interpreted as inverse Compton scattered relic radiation from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), with additional contribution at higher energies from the infrared-to-optical extragalactic background light (EBL). These measurements provide gamma-ray constraints on the magnetic field and particle energy content in radio galaxy lobes, and a promising method to probe the cosmic relic photon fields.Comment: 27 pages, includes Supplementary Online Material; corresponding authors: C.C. Cheung, Y. Fukazawa, J. Knodlseder, L. Stawar