Uncertainty of storm surge forecast using integrated atmospheric and storm surge model: a case study on Typhoon Haishen 2020

Hindcast experiments and pseudo-forecast experiments considering Typhoon Haishen (2020) were conducted using an atmospheric (WRF)-storm surge (GeoClaw) coupled model and a storm surge model with a parametric typhoon model. A series of simulations of the coupled model were used to quantify the error sources of the typhoon track and intensity in the forecast errors of storm surges. The results revealed that the typhoon track forecast had a larger error source for the storm surge forecast for the maximum surge height than the typhoon intensity. Furthermore, the parametric Holland typhoon model used in practice has an overestimation trend compared to the coupled model, and the parametric Holland typhoon model using WRF output was able to forecast the storm surge height near the typhoon (western Kyushu area) and its peak occurrence time accurately. However, the forecast accuracy tended to decrease as the distance from the typhoon to the target location increased. The pseudo-ensemble simulation of the storm surge forecast using forecast error information was conducted considering the uncertainty of the typhoon track forecast. The 20 ensemble forecast simulations revealed that the perturbed typhoon track simulation can increase the possibility of capturing the peak time of the storm surge

Auraptene and Other Prenyloxyphenylpropanoids Suppress Microglial Activation and Dopaminergic Neuronal Cell Death in a Lipopolysaccharide-Induced Model of Parkinson’s Disease

In patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD), hyperactivated inflammation in the brain, particularly microglial hyperactivation in the substantia nigra (SN), is reported to be one of the triggers for the delayed loss of dopaminergic neurons and sequential motor functional impairments. We previously reported that (1) auraptene (AUR), a natural prenyloxycoumain, suppressed inflammatory responses including the hyperactivation of microglia in the ischemic brain and inflamed brain, thereby inhibiting neuronal cell death; (2) 7-isopentenyloxycoumarin (7-IP), another natural prenyloxycoumain, exerted anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective effects against excitotoxicity; and (3) 4′-geranyloxyferulic acid (GOFA), a natural prenyloxycinnamic acid, also exerted anti-inflammatory effects. In the present study, using an intranigral lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced PD-like mouse model, we investigated whether AUR, 7-IP, and GOFA suppress microglial activation and protect against dopaminergic neuronal cell death in the SN. We successfully showed that these prenyloxyphenylpropanoids exhibited these prospective abilities, suggesting the potential of these compounds as neuroprotective agents for patients with PD

Auraptene in the Peels of Citrus kawachiensis (Kawachi Bankan) Ameliorates Lipopolysaccharide-Induced Inflammation in the Mouse Brain

Examination of the dried peel powder of Citrus kawachiensis, one of the citrus products of Ehime, Japan, showed that it contained naringin (NGIN; 44.02 ± 0.491 mg/g), narirutin (NRTN; 4.46 ± 0.0563 mg/g), auraptene (AUR; 4.07 ± 0.033 mg/g), and 3,5,6,7,8,3′,4′-heptamethoxyflavone (HMF; 0.27 ± 0.0039 mg/g). When this dried peel powder was orally preadministered at the dose of 1.2 or 2.4 g/kg/day for 7 days into lipopolysaccharide- (LPS-) injected mice, an animal model of systemic inflammation, it suppressed (1) LPS-induced loss of body weight and abnormal behavior in the open field, (2) LPS-induced activation of microglia and astrocytes in the hippocampus, and (3) LPS-induced expression of cyclooxygenase (COX)-2, which were coexpressed in astrocytes of these mice. When NGIN or AUR was preadministered to LPS-injected mice at an amount similar to that in the peel powder, AUR, but not NGIN, had the ability to suppress the LPS-induced inflammation in the brain of these model mice. The dried powder of flavedo tissue (the outer colored layer of the mesocarp of a citrus fruit) and juice, which contained sufficient amounts of AUR, also had anti-inflammatory effect. These results suggest that AUR was the main ingredient responsible for the anti-inflammatory property of the dried peels of C. kawachiensis