Stories of the future: personal mobility innovation in the United Kingdom

This paper looks at personal transport futures in the context of greenhouse gas emissions reduction, as portrayed in documents from various stakeholders in the transport sector. It analyses the role of frames and narratives in constructing stories of the future, through the lens of two innovations: electric vehicles (EVs) and car clubs. Most of the documents draw on technological progress to tell stories of a future similar to the present but with EVs or other low-carbon vehicles, while car club focused documents stress broader notions of sustainability. A number of economic, technological and political-related frames are identified, which are used in constructing and justifying these stories. Some frames, such as ‘economic growth’, are nearly ubiquitous. Narratives support and are sometimes actively supported by the stories, such as ‘technology neutrality’. Frames and narratives play a key role in creating stories of the future, and help create and maintain expectations and legitimacy of innovations. Frame analysis helps unpick and challenge unrealistic expectations that might leave us unprepared for the future

Impacts of the fossil fuel divestment movement: effects on finance, policy and public discourse

The fossil fuel divestment movement campaigns for removing investments from fossil fuel companies as a strategy to combat climate change. It is a bottom-up movement, largely based in university student groups, although it has rapidly spread to other institutions. Divestment has been criticised for its naiveté and hard-line stance and dismissed as having little impact on fossil fuel finance. I analyse the impact of divestment through reviewing academic and grey literature, complemented by interviews with activists and financial actors, using a theoretical framework that draws on social movement theory. While the direct impacts of divestment are small, the indirect impacts, in terms of public discourse shift, are significant. Divestment has put questions of finance and climate change on the agenda and played a part in changing discourse around the legitimacy, reputation and viability of the fossil fuel industry. This cultural impact contributed to changes in the finance industry through new demands by shareholders and investors and to changes in political discourse, such as rethinking the notion of ‘fiduciary duty.’ Finally, divestment had significant impact on its participants in terms of empowerment and played a part in the revitalisation of the environmental movement in the UK and elsewhere

Energy efficiency or energy demand?

Energy efficiency has long been hailed as a central pillar in climate change mitigation through its role in reducing energy demand – not least by eceee. However, some now question whether the energy efficiency narrative is sufficient for emission reduction goals. This is a welcome development, as this narrative has often been synonymous with improving technical efficiency, while obscuring the question of reducing demand for energy services – as opposed to delivering those same services more efficiently. Further, it carries an implicit techno-centric bias, overlooking non-technological solutions. A classic example is the EU’s estimates of potentially large energy savings that could be achieved by more efficient tumble dryers – a study measure which could encourage dryer purchase, significantly increasing energy use over hanging clothes to dry. This paper draws on conclusions from three research projects at the Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand (CIED), including one finding that a shift to electric cars risks maintaining high travel demand, preventing a deeper transition to a more sustainable transport system, and another forecasting significantly lower household energy savings from the UK smart meter rollout than previously estimated. I conclude that the energy efficiency narrative might lock us in to high energy lifestyles through seeking ways to maintain, rather than disrupt, business as usual behaviours. I suggest that a complementary energy demand reduction narrative could highlight the limits to (technical) efficiency savings, and open a way for policy to engage with the deeper changes needed to our demand for energy services

Reorienting finance towards energy efficiency: the case of UK housing

This paper examines the challenges associated with stimulating large-scale investment in energy efficiency and demand management measures, using residential energy efficiency improving retrofits in the UK as a case study. We consider how issues of energy policy, consumer choice and financial systems intersect, drawing on recent literature including energy policy documents and research reports, and on interviews with stakeholders from the finance sector, energy efficiency practitioners and more. We suggest that following the withdrawal of the Green Deal, there is a need to reconsider the framing of policy for household energy efficiency improvements, and examine three potential aspects of a new framing: energy efficiency as infrastructure; new business and financing models for energy efficiency provision; and decentralised financing institutions for energy efficiency investment. This would require a long-term commitment from government on energy efficiency, and a need to ensure that projects are attractive and investable from both householders and investors’ perspectives. We conclude that there are important roles for government in any large scale initiative for energy efficient retrofitting of UK homes, even if the mechanisms are market based. These includes signalling long-term policy consistency and reducing risks for financial investment, and intermediating between finance and energy efficiency projects

Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.Complex Systems, Agent-Based Modelling, Social Simulation, Transitions, Transition Theory

Koomey's law forevermore? A document analysis of the production and circulation of the promise of ‘green 5G’

We conduct an analysis of a UK-focused corpus of documents that represent key sites through which the promise of green 5G is produced, circulated and challenged. By the promise of green 5G we refer to an emerging, overarching, dominant expectation that 5G will produce environmental sustainability benefits of various kinds. We employ an analytical approach informed by the sociology of expectations and the concept of technoscientific promises to identify: the various types of expectations and promises upon which the promise of green 5G is built, the ways that the legitimacy and credibility of this promise are boosted, the negative expectations that challenge it, the different ways in which 5G is positioned in relation to the problem of expected traffic growth and how such problematisations direct attention to different solutions, and, finally, a number of other performative effects of the promise of green 5G. The promise of green 5G directs attention towards technological options that aim to render traffic growth sustainable through energy efficiency improvements and away from alternative approaches. This dominant expectation that traffic growth can be rendered sustainable through technological innovation suggests strong commitments to the environmental discourses of ecological modernisation and Promethean environmentalism within this technological community

The role of digitalisation in low carbon scenarios

Two of the major socio-technical transitions the world is currently facing are shifting to a low-carbon society, and a digital revolution. Despite some claims to the contrary, evidence suggests that spread and adoption of information and communications technologies (ICT) does not automatically lead to reduction in energy demand, if this stimulates new energy-using practices or wider economic growth (Lange, Pohl, and Santarius 2020). Despite this policy challenge, the two transitions are often considered separately. We report from ongoing work investigating assumptions and framing of climate-focused transition scenarios, both global and UK-specific, to examine the role of digitalisation in these scenarios. We analyse the framing of the scenarios along several axes: (1) the relative focus on decarbonising energy supply or managing energy demand; (2) the relative focus on green growth or shifting to a focus on wellbeing (or even degrowth); (3) the relative focus of the narrative on dominant business models led by large ICT firms, or alternative business models which empowering communities and users; and (4) the relative focus on automation for optimising energy supply and demand or on empowering agency of users; as well as their specification of other economic, technical, user practice and political factors. We find that low-carbon transition scenarios vary in their level of engagement with the digital revolution and the level of interaction between the two transitions, and in terms of their framing in the above axes, with many implicit assumptions. This suggests opportunities for improving policy interactions between these two transitions, and stimulating greater public debate on the different framings for an ICT-driven low carbon transition

Drivers and effects of digitalisation on energy demand in low carbon scenarios

The world is currently facing two socio-technical transitions: shifting to a low-carbon society, and a digital revolution. Despite some claims to the contrary, evidence suggests that spread and adoption of ICT does not automatically lead to reduction in energy demand, if this stimulates new energy-using practices or wider economic growth. Despite this policy challenge, the two transitions are often considered separately. This study examines potential drivers of reductions or increases in energy demand due to digitalisation identified in recent leading global and UK net zero transitions scenarios. These include direct effects, indirect and rebound effects relating to home energy use and transport, and effects on economic growth. The scenarios are first analysed in relation to how they are situated in relation to different framing assumptions: (1) the relative focus on decarbonising energy supply or managing energy demand; (2) a focus on green growth or shifting to a focus on wellbeing (or even degrowth); (3) the extent to which they assume dominant business models led by large ICT firms, or alternative business models which empower communities and users; and (4) the extent to which they envisage key roles for ICT in relation to automation for optimising energy supply and demand or for empowering agency of users. Specific direct, indirect and economic growth effects of digitalisation on energy demand are then identified, which reflect these and other projections in the scenarios. These imply that the future pathways adopted for digitalisation will have a significant impact on future energy demand and hence on the feasibility and acceptability of achieving net zero goals. This suggests opportunities for further research and improving policy interactions between these two transitions, and stimulating greater public debate on the different framings for an ICT-driven low carbon transition

Recasting stories about energy in a post-pandemic world

Stories are one of the oldest forms of communication, and still have the power to shape cultural change. New and revised stories can help us address global challenges of energy, climate and society by offering visions and imagined futures that influence public discourse and policy. Old stories, even religious myths, could serve as inspiration and be recast to serve us today. Dominant narratives can silence or marginalise other stories and perspectives, limiting imagined futures, while giving comfort and order – such is the cultural narrative of modern economic growth. But they could also be benign, inspiring and unifying in difficult times, when great changes are needed. Crises and external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, are disruptions that open windows of opportunity for change, making new or previously unpopular visions of the word more acceptable. Early in the pandemic, quiet streets and improved air quality gave glimpses of another world; social inequalities became more evident in differences in access to green outdoor space and ability to work and study online. Reactions to the pandemic highlighted a struggle between a desire for social change with a focus on wellbeing, and a push to return to ‘normal’. Alternative visions of the future, catalysed by this disruption, could help fast forward change. We suggest single stories are not enough to imagine and move towards desirable futures. Rather an ‘ecosystem of stories’ is needed as they ebb and flow in their influence, with new stories sitting alongside old ones, sometimes engaged in a struggle for domination. We argue that our current culture often emphasises ‘hero stories’ (with people, technology or even markets as heroes). Policy scenarios often lack stories of stewardship and caring, and similarly avoid engagement with precautionary tales of failure and environmental collapse. We conclude that policy should draw on a variety of imagined futures from a broader selection of actors and communities to enable systemic change