The Overshoot Problem and Giant Structures

Models of small-field inflation often suffer from the overshoot problem. A particularly efficient resolution to the problem was proposed recently in the context of string theory. We show that this resolution predicts the existence of giant spherically symmetric overdense regions with radius of at least 110 Mpc. We argue that if such structures will be found they could offer an experimental window into string theory.Comment: 19 pages, 1 figure, comments and refs. adde

Trends in Human and Economic Development Across Countries

Convergence of the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita income were tested between 1975 and 1998 using a yearly adjustment model. The results indicated convergence for HDI and divergence for income. Furthermore, there was an increase over the years in the average HDI for every group of countries as classified by HDI from low to high. The only group of countries with significant increase in income were the rich countries.

Israel's stabilization program

In order to combat inflation, Israel launched a stabilization program in July 1985 which resulted in inflation decreasing to a low 20 percent annually as compared with more than 400 percent in 1984. What contributed to this decline? This paper attempts to analyze the major factors which made the transition to low inflation possible. It deals with such issues as the role of U.S. aid and of domestic fiscal adjustment, of monetary and exchange rate policies and of the change in the rules of the game concerning government-labor interactions. The paper focuses on the evaluation of the stabilization program from the 1987 perspective and examines the evolution of the disinflationary policies in the course of the program. Although Israel has obviously made strides in correcting inflation, several problems remain for the economy. The final section of the paper deals with these issues and the policy dilemmas which face the government.Economic Stabilization,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation,Fiscal&Monetary Policy

A stringy glimpse into the black hole horizon

We elaborate on the recent claim [arXiv:1702.03583] that non-perturbative effects in $\alpha'$, which are at the core of the FZZ duality, render the region just behind the horizon of the $SL(2,\mathbb{R})_k/U(1)$ black hole singular already at the classical level ($g_s=0$). We argue that the 2D classical $SL(2,\mathbb{R})_k/U(1)$ black hole could shed some light on quantum black holes in higher dimensions including large black holes in $AdS_5\times S^5$

Reconsidering UK Community Development Finance

The report includes ten case studies of community finance initiatives in the US and the EU. These highlight the different features of community finance organisations, their target group and their core activities in order to identify what aspects of their operation are integral to creating successful interventions in deprived communities. The objective of these case studies is to highlight particular aspects of their activities and operating environment that are instructive for CDF in the UK.Woodstock Institute provided case studies of US CDFIs

A pragmatic argument against equal weighting

We present a minimal pragmatic restriction on the interpretation of the weights in the “Equal Weight View” regarding peer disagreement and show that the view cannot respect it. Based on this result we argue against the view. The restriction is the following one: if an agent, $$\hbox {i}$$ i, assigns an equal or higher weight to another agent, $$\hbox {j}$$ j,, he must be willing—in exchange for a positive and certain payment—to accept an offer to let a completely rational and sympathetic $$\hbox {j}$$ j choose for him whether to accept a bet with positive expected utility. If $$\hbox {i}$$ i assigns a lower weight to $$\hbox {j}$$ j than to himself, he must not be willing to pay any positive price for letting $$\hbox {j}$$ j choose for him. Respecting the constraint entails, we show, that the impact of disagreement on one’s degree of belief is not independent of what the disagreement is discovered to be

Macroeconomic performance before and after disinflation in Israel

The Israeli stabilization program of 1985 is generally considered one of the most successful such programs in years. Under it, the inflation rate plummeted from about 400 percent a year to about 15-20 percent a year. This paper examines how stabilization affected other key economic variables after 1985. The authors particularly struck by the immediate, abrupt reduction in the rate of inflation and the timing and impact of disinflation on other real variables. For more than two years after the program, a private consumption boom was accompanied by increased economic activity, relatively high real wages and real interest rates, and a low real exchange rate. The recent rise in unemployment seems to reflect the beginning of a process of structural adjustment whereby resources are reallocated across the economy. This process will allow an increase in long term growth after adjustment is completed. In reducing inflation, the program seems to have had the same effectiveness as other shock treatment programs; a sharp and immediate disinflation. In terms of the real costs of disinflation, the program may seem more gradualist. The real costs, in terms of increased unemployment, were postponed for several years and in the transition there was actually a boom in economic activity.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Stabilization,Macroeconomic Management,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences

The inflation - stabilization cycles in Argentina and Brazil

The Austral plan in Argentina and the Cruzado plan in Brazil were major stabilization attempts with lasting effects on the inflation process in both countries. The purpose of this paper is to understand the reasons that led to the large instability in inflation in both countries, and to explain why neither country succeeded in sustaining a high, but stable rate of inflation. This instability was not accompanied by a noticeable increase in the average rate of inflation. In Argentina inflation was in fact lower on average during the first three years after the Austral plan than in the previous three years, while in Brazil the increase in the average rate of inflation after the Cruzado plan was not dramatic. The paper presents the view that the type of instability that emerged following the failure of the heterodox shocks was a consequence of the large reliance on income policies for stopping inflation in the Austral and Cruzado plans and in the follow-up programs. It was the repeated use of controls accompanied by expectations and anticipations about government actions by firms and works that introduced the observed instability during this period. The paper presents a summary of the process of inflation and gives an in-depth analysis of the inflation - stabilization cycles. It concludes with thoughts about the sustainability of the regime, and the implications of these developments for the design of stabilization programmes in both countries.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Inflation,Banks&Banking Reform,Public Sector Economics&Finance