A multi-country assessment of factors related to smallholder food security in varying rainfall conditions

Given that smallholder farmers are frequently food insecure and rely significantly on rain-fed agriculture, it is critical to examine climate variability and food insecurity. We utilize data from smallholder farmer surveys from 12 countries with 30 years of rainfall data to examine how rainfall variability and household resources are correlated with food security. We find that on average, households that experienced a drier than average year are 3.81 months food insecure, while households within a normal range of rainfall were 3.67 months food insecure, and wetter than average households were 2.86 months food insecure. Reduced odds of food insecurity is associated with agricultural inputs, ownership of livestock, water use efficiency, financial services, and participation in a group. However, in drier than average households, financial services as compared to agricultural inputs and agroecological practices have a greater prevalence of reduced instances of food insecurity, while agricultural inputs are more common for reduced food insecurity in wetter than average households. Only the use of fertilizer consistently results in reduced odds of food insecurity across all households regardless of rainfall, demonstrating that one-size fits all approaches to food security interventions are likely ineffective, and place-specific interventions considering climatic factors are critically important

Water use governance in a temperate region: Implications for agricultural climate change adaptation in the Northeastern United States

Climate change and access to water are interrelated concerns for agriculture and other sectors, even in temperate regions. Governance approaches and regulatory frameworks determine who has access to water, for what purpose, and when. In the northeastern United States, water governance has historically been conducted by states through a combination of statutory guidance and common law. However, it is unclear what effect if current governance approaches will be sufficient for achieving resource conservation and equitable allocation in a changing climate. To provide insight into these issues, we conducted the first review of freshwater governance in the 12 states that comprise the U.S. Northeast. Specifically, we examine their heterogeneous approaches to surface and groundwater use, permitting and reporting, and scarcity provisions. Using agriculture as the sector of focus, we show through narrative review and quantitative analysis that change in the proportion of cropland that is irrigated in each state does not differ based on governance approach. We also suggest that future decades may bring regulatory shifts relevant to agriculture, changes in enforcement, increased competition between agriculture and other users, and greater potential competition between states for water resources. This case study raises the question: how should we prepare for the time when competition for, or degradation of, a resource surpasses the ability of existing governance mechanisms to ensure conservation and equitable distribution

Visualizing climate change adaptation: An effective tool for agricultural outreach?

Landscape photovisualizations (PVZs) are digitally altered photographs that show existing landscapes altered to include a simulated future scenario. They are commonly used to support dialogue and decision-making in multistakeholder contexts. In agricultural sectors, stakeholders increasingly must contend with pressures to adapt to climatic changes and shifts in weather patterns. This study examines the potential of PVZs to engage agricultural stakeholders about climate change adaptation, specifically around best management practices (BMPs). In 2015, survey data were collected (n 5 133) at six agricultural confer-ences Vermont. Participants were asked about their climate change knowledge, perceptions of adaptation, and their intentions to adopt or recommend one or more of the following BMPs: riparian buffers, drainage tiles with constructed wetlands, retention ponds, and silvopasture. In addition, respondents were asked about how well PVZs did or did not clarify their understanding of each BMP and its associated limiting factors. Results from five multivariate ordered logit models show an increase in interest among some ag-ricultural stakeholders in adopting a BMP (among farmers) or recommending a BMP (among agricultural advisors) after seeing a PVZ depicting that practice. Interest in adoption or recommendation of BMPs was also more likely among respondents who believe that it is important for farms to adapt to climate change. Although PVZs are not common in agricultural outreach programs, these results suggest that PVZs are relevant to agricultural education and land-use decision-making, specifically in the domain of climate change adaptation

Text mining the food security literature reveals substantial spatial bias and thematic broadening over time

We conducted text mining analyses on nearly the entirety of academic literature related to food security. Assessing the literature\u27s spatial scope, we found a truly global body of research conducted across 187 different countries, but with significant spatial heterogeneities in where research is conducted. Comparing the spatial distribution of the literature to actual rates of food insecurity, we found only a slight association between where food security research is conducted and where food security needs are located. Using topic modeling to assess the thematic scope of the literature, we found that originally food security research focused on economic policy and global issues, and only later did the literature expand to encompass themes like livelihoods, health, and the environment. This analysis provides the first ever thematic scoping of the entire food security literature and the first assessment of spatial biases in where food security research is conducted

Seeing is not always believing: Crop loss and climate change perceptions among farm advisors

As climate change is expected to significantly affect agricultural systems globally, agricultural farm advisors have been increasingly recognized as an important resource in helping farmers address these challenges. While there have been many studies exploring the climate change belief and risk perceptions as well as behaviors of both farmers and agricultural farm advisors, there are very few studies that have explored how these perceptions relate to actual climate impacts in agriculture. Here we couple survey data from United States Department of Agriculture farm service employees (n = 6, 514) with historical crop loss data across the United States to explore the relationship of actual climate-related crop losses on farm to farm advisor perceptions of climate change and future farmer needs. Using structural equation modelling we find that among farm advisors that work directly with farms on disaster and crop loss issues, there is a significant positive relationship between crop loss and perceived weather variability changes, while across all farm advisors crop loss is associated with reduced likelihood to believe in anthropogenic climate change. Further, we find that weather variability perceptions are the most consistently and highly correlated with farm advisors\u27 perceptions about the need for farm adaptation and future farmer needs. These results suggest that seeing crop loss may not lead to climate change belief, but may drive weather variability perceptions, which in turn affect farm adaptation perceptions. This lends further evidence to the debate over terminology in climate change communication and outreach, suggesting that weather variability may be the most salient among agricultural advisors

Farm service agency employee intentions to use weather and climate data in professional services

This is a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.. Agricultural service providers often work closely with producers, and are well positioned to include weather and climate change information in the services they provide. By doing so, they can help producers reduce risks due to climate variability and change. A national survey of United States Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency (FSA) field staff (n = 4621) was conducted in 2016. The survey was designed to assess FSA employees\u27 use of climate and weather-related data and explore their perspectives on climate change, attitudes toward adaptation and concerns regarding climate- and weather-driven risks. Two structural equation models were developed to explore relationships between these factors, and to predict respondents\u27 willingness to integrate climate and weather data into their professional services in the future. The two models were compared with assess the relative influence of respondents\u27 current use of weather and climate information. Findings suggest that respondents\u27 perceptions of weather-related risk in combination with their personal observations of weather variability help predict whether an individual intends to use weather and climate information in the future. Importantly, climate change belief is not a significant predictor of this intention; however, the belief that producers will have to adapt to climate change in order to remain viable is. Surprisingly, whether or not an individual currently uses weather and climate information is not a good predictor of whether they intend to in the future. This suggests that there are opportunities to increase employee exposure and proficiency with weather and climate information to meet the needs of American farmers by helping them to reduce risk

Combinatorial Analysis of mRNA Expression Patterns in Mouse Embryos Using Hybridization Chain Reaction

Multiplexed fluorescent hybridization chain reaction (HCR) and advanced imaging techniques can be used to evaluate combinatorial gene expression patterns in whole mouse embryos with unprecedented spatial resolution. Using HCR, DNA probes complementary to mRNA targets trigger chain reactions in which metastable fluorophore-labeled DNA HCR hairpins self-assemble into tethered fluorescent amplification polymers. Each target mRNA is detected by a probe set containing one or more DNA probes, with each probe carrying two HCR initiators. For multiplexed experiments, probe sets for different target mRNAs carry orthogonal initiators that trigger orthogonal DNA HCR amplification cascades labeled by spectrally distinct fluorophores. As a result, in situ amplification is performed for all targets simultaneously, and the duration of the experiment is independent of the number of target mRNAs. We have used multiplexed fluorescent in situ HCR and advanced imaging technologies to address questions of cell heterogeneity and tissue complexity in craniofacial patterning and anterior neural development. In the sample protocol presented here, we detect three different mRNA targets: Tg(egfp), encoding the enhanced green fluorescent protein (GFP) transgene (typically used as a control); Twist1, encoding a transcription factor involved in cell lineage determination and differentiation; and Pax2, encoding a transcription factor expressed in the mid-hindbrain region of the mouse embryo

Relationship between food waste, diet quality, and environmental sustainability

Improving diet quality while simultaneously reducing environmental impact is a critical focus globally. Metrics linking diet quality and sustainability have typically focused on a limited suite of indicators, and have not included food waste. To address this important research gap, we examine the relationship between food waste, diet quality, nutrient waste, and multiple measures of sustainability: use of cropland, irrigation water, pesticides, and fertilizers. Data on food intake, food waste, and application rates of agricultural amendments were collected from diverse US government sources. Diet quality was assessed using the Healthy Eating Index-2015. A biophysical simulation model was used to estimate the amount of cropland associated with wasted food. This analysis finds that US consumers wasted 422g of food per person daily, with 30 million acres of cropland used to produce this food every year. This accounts for 30% of daily calories available for consumption, one-quarter of daily food (by weight) available for consumption, and 7% of annual cropland acreage. Higher quality diets were associated with greater amounts of food waste and greater amounts of wasted irrigation water and pesticides, but less cropland waste. This is largely due to fruits and vegetables, which are health-promoting and require small amounts of cropland, but require substantial amounts of agricultural inputs. These results suggest that simultaneous efforts to improve diet quality and reduce food waste are necessary. Increasing consumers’ knowledge about how to prepare and store fruits and vegetables will be one of the practical solutions to reducing food waste

Gaugino Condensation in M-theory on S^1/Z_2

In the low energy limit of for M-theory on S^1/Z_2, we calculate the gaugino condensate potential in four dimensions using the background solutions due to Horava. We show that this potential is free of delta-function singularities and has the same form as the potential in the weakly coupled heterotic string. A general flux quantization rule for the three-form field of M-theory on S^1/Z_2 is given and checked in certain limiting cases. This rule is used to fix the free parameter in the potential originating from a zero mode of the form field. Finally, we calculate soft supersymmetry breaking terms. We find that corrections to the Kahler potential and the gauge kinetic function, which can be large in the strongly coupled region, contribute significantly to certain soft terms. In particular, for supersymmetry breaking in the T-modulus direction, the small values of gaugino masses and trilinear couplings that occur in the weakly coupled, large radius regime are enhanced to order m_3/2 in M-theory. The scalar soft masses remain small even, in the strong coupling M-theory limit.Comment: 20 pages, LATE

Combination therapy with rituximab, low-dose cyclophosphamide, and prednisone for idiopathic membranous nephropathy: a case series

BACKGROUND: Membranous nephropathy is a common cause of the nephrotic syndrome. Treatment with standard regimens fails to induce complete remission in most patients. We evaluated the efficacy of combination therapy with rituximab, low-dose, oral cyclophosphamide, and an accelerated prednisone taper (RCP) for the treatment of idiopathic membranous nephropathy. METHODS: We analyzed 15 consecutive patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy treated with RCP at Massachusetts General Hospital. Seven patients (47%) received RCP as initial therapy, and the other eight patients (53%) received RCP for relapsing or refractory disease. All patients had at least 1 year of follow-up. The co-primary outcomes were attainment of partial and complete remission. Partial remission was defined as a urinary protein to creatinine ratio (UPCR) < 3 g/g and a 50% reduction from baseline. Complete remission was defined as a UPCR < 0.3 g/g. Secondary outcomes were serious adverse events and the change in proteinuria, serum creatinine, serum albumin, cholesterol, triglycerides, and immunoglobulin G levels after 1 year of treatment. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up time of 37 (IQR, 34-44) months, 100% of patients achieved partial remission and 93% of patients achieved complete remission at a median time of 2 and 13 months, respectively. After 1 year of treatment, median (IQR) UPCR declined from 8.2 (6.6-11.1) to 0.3 (0.2-0.7) g/g (P < 0.001). Three serious adverse events occurred over 51 patient years. No patients died or progressed to ESKD. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of idiopathic membranous nephropathy with RCP resulted in high rates of complete remission. Larger studies evaluating this regimen are warranted