Research of Marine Ferry Systems Based on Discretization pf Processes and Simulation Ferry Market Based on CIRCOS Intensity Graph

There has been a significant increase in the role of sea ferry services today as well as a significant increase in the number of ferry vessels and passenger flow, which requires the development of new practical forecasting methods. The article proposes a new approach to forecasting, which is based on the integrated interaction of the systems «passenger sea port - cruise or ferry lines». This research focused on the regions of the Adriatic and the Baltic Sea and the existing network of cruise and ferry line routes. When studying this system, it was justified to use a new mathematical model based on practical simulation and models of the theory of discrete processes and systems. The proposed model is complemented by a discretization-based study based on the Kotelnikov´s theorem. To reflect the dynamics of changes in such a system, it is proposed to use new diagrams of the intensity represented by circos graphs (diagrams). The article discusses the practical importance of using new circos intensity graphs of sections to study the operation of the «marine terminal - cruise line or ferry line» systems based on real data on the Baltic and Adriatic seas. Based on the simulation results, a new system of corrective actions is proposed to improve the management of marine terminals. It presents new results which can increase the accuracy of the planning and decision-making process in predicting and planning the route network based on the research of passenger traffic between the «sea terminal - cruise line or ferry line» systems

FORECASTING THE OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES OF THE SEA PASSENGER TERMINAL USING INTELLIGENT TECHNOLOGIES

. Modern transport systems are characterized by the development and implementation of intelligent transport technologies. Today, dynamic forecast models are not used in practice in the operation of a passenger terminal. Decision making is based on some regulatory values for passenger traffic, but this is not sufficient for efficient terminal management. Modern passenger terminals are characterized by dynamic process variability and consideration of diverse options, taking into account the criteria of safety, reliability analysis, and the continuous research of passenger processing. For any modern marine passenger terminal, it is necessary to use the tool to simulate passenger flows in dynamics. Only in this way it is possible to obtain the analytical information and use it for decision making when solving the problem of the amount of personnel required for passenger service, transport safety, some forecasting tasks and so on. Of particular relevance is the choice of the mathematical transport model and the practical conditions for the implementation of the model in the real terminal operation. In this article, the analysis technique of intelligent simulation-based terminal services provides a new mathematical model of passenger movement inside the terminal and presents a new software instrument. Moreover, the conditions of implementation of some transportation models during the operation of marine passenger terminal are examined. The study represents an example of analytical information used for the forecast of the terminal operations, the analysis of the workload and the efficiency of the organization of the marine terminal

The influence of external environment to the ferry lines and marine passenger terminals

Marine passenger ports are integrated into the transport systems of cities and regions today. If there are sufficient developed mathematical forecasting models in the class of polynomial models, probability series, and a number of others, then the models describing the influence of the external environment on ferry market are not sufficient. The developed scheme of interaction between the participants of the cruise market and the mathematical model of the port as a technical system is presented in this research. The article substantiates new purposes to use the logistic function to assess the external environment. A mathematical model and the derivation of the new basic equation of the logistic function for ferry market are given. Analytical data were collected on the ports and terminals of the Adriatic Sea and the Baltic Sea, and data were selected of ship calls at the passenger port St. Petersburg “Marine Facade” (2019-2020). The article proposes the consideration of new various proportionality factors that will determine the demand for cruise transportation modeling in the short-term forecasting interval. A complete mathematical model is given taking into account the real schedule of the sea passenger port. The logistic function proposed in the article allows us to solve the forecasting problem in a new way in relation to the selection and evaluation of a cruise product. Moreover, it allows us to solve a group of economic problems related to promotion problem for particular cruise product on the market, allows us to evaluate the activity of passengers when they are choosing a cruise product, and allows us to make adjustments to the planned port working schedules and to make timely adjustments. The main advantage of the proposed model is an analytical assessment of the effect of the external environment, both on passenger ports and on ferry and cruise companies

Infrastructure changes of the sea passenger port based on a digital transport model

Marine passenger ports and terminals are key transport facilities that influence the development and positioning of a region, city or country. The port infrastructure should provide the world requirements in service of cruise and ferry ships, and ensure the efficiency and convenience in service of passengers and associated cargo flow. This circumstance determines the necessity of infrastructure modernization, and hardware and software renewal. At the same time, the existing equipment in ports and terminals is gradually becoming outdated, hence the necessity of modernization on the basis of development of a decision-making system. This decision-making system should no longer be based on analytical models, but on new digital transport models of sea passenger ports and terminals. These digital models must take into account both passenger handling processes and external processes for handling cruise and ferry ships. The model should have high computational power and take into account the influence of the external environment. These models should answer development forecasting questions and provide an accurate decision-making system for the validity of infrastructure changes. The Passenger Port of Saint Petersburg "Marine Façade” (St. Petersburg) was chosen as the subject of research. To construct a numerical model, port operation intensity, passenger, cruise and ferry vessel handling processes were investigated; port and terminal development strategies and the mutual influence of the "city-port" systems on each other were studied. As a result of the analysis, a new digital transport model of the sea passenger port was built, which has a high level of detail and accuracy of process implementation, high productivity and efficiency of analysis of various infrastructure changes in the port, allowing the inclusion of dynamic changes from the external environment. The numerical model has been fully implemented for this port, and new conclusions have been derived from it. The use of these new models allows justification of infrastructure upgrades and to study the position of the port in the region in relation to competitors' ports. The developed tool allows solving the problem of research on port processes at any level of planning and enables integration into the information systems already existing in ports and terminals

Modernization of the Infrastructure of Marine Passenger Port Based on Synthesis of the Structure and Forecasting Development

Passenger seaports are new starting-points of urban development. They form a new independent industry, become new incentives for improving urban infrastructure and increase the tourist attractiveness of the city itself and the region. In view of changes in passenger service processes, changes in route ferry and cruise networks, due to COVID-19, the heads of ports and terminals set new strategic tasks to determine the directions for infrastructure modernization and forecast development. The regions of the Adriatic and Baltic Seas were chosen as the experimental base. To find new answers, it is necessary to solve the problem of synthesizing the structure of a sea passenger port, taking into account all processes and services, the influence of the external environment, building a system of target functions and limiting conditions. Thus, the necessity of forming informed decisions on modernization based on the construction of new mathematical models is substantiated. A new function has been introduced that describes the influence of the external environment. Particular attention is given to the study of the mutual influence of the city and the sea passenger port in order to determine the need to improve transport accessibility and change the near-port transport space. The presented models of structure synthesis and target functions, models including functions of the influence of the external environment on the system “city infrastructure-sea passenger port-ferry company” allow at a qualitatively new level to solve the problem of forecasting development and form a system making decisions to improve the position of the passenger terminal in the sea region. The developed models and synthesis problem formation are applicable to sea passenger ports and terminals in other regions of the seas. The models are applicable both at the stage of creating a new marine terminal and during the study and subsequent modernization of the infrastructure. The presented new models allow the port manager to give answers to the questions of strategic development of sea passenger ports in sea regions

Forecasting of the route network of ferry and cruise lines based on simulation and intelligent transport systems

According to statistics, the marine passenger transportation sectors (both cruise lines and ferry lines) show a significant increase of passenger traffic and the intensity of ship routes. But new features of the conditions for passenger traffic growth require the development of new methodological transport models for cruise and ferry networks and new practical forecasting methods. Changes are observed in the fleet composition, mostly in the direction of increased. New approach for forecasting has to be based on the interaction of such systems as ≪city‒sea passenger port‒cruise and ferry lines. This condition now determines new need to describe the principles and forms of organization of maritime ferry networks and changes under the influence of the external environment. The object of the research is the Baltic Sea region and the existing route networks of cruise and ferry lines. Exploring this system, the usage of new mathematical apparatus based on correspondence matrices and agent-based simulation was justified for estimating the workload on transport infrastructure around the passenger port and for the existing ferry or cruise route network. The practical results of new simulation model, on the one hand, justify the need for a comprehensive study of the conditions for the formation of ferry and cruise route networks in changing conditions. On the other hand, these new results could improve the quality of decision-making process in forecasting the route network on the basis of the research of passenger traffic between systems city‒sea terminal-cruise line or ferry line