Competitive reactions and the cross-sales effects of advertising and promotion.

Abstract: How do competitors react to each other's price-promotion and advertising actions? How do these reactions influence the net sales impact we observe? We answer these questions by performing a large-scale empirical study of the short-run and long-run reactions to promotion and advertising shocks in over 400 consumer product categories, over a four-year time span.Competitive reaction can be passive, accommodating or retaliatory. We first develop a series of expectations on the type and intensity of reaction behavior, and on the moderators of this behavior. These expectations are assessed in two ways. First, vector-autoregressive models quantify the short-run and long-run effect of a promotion or advertising action on competitive sales and on competitive reactions. By cataloging the numerical results, we are able to formulate empirical generalizations of reaction behavior ('how do they react?'). Second, we estimate structural models of reaction intensity, in function of various market and competitive characteristics ('what are the drivers of reaction?'). Finally, by comparing our findings on reaction behavior with those on promotion and advertising effectiveness, we are able to evaluate competitive reaction behavior ('are they reacting as they should?').A major finding is that competitive reaction is predominantly passive. When it is present, it is usually retaliatory in the same instrument, but accommodating or retaliatory in a different instrument. There are very few long-run consequences of any type of reaction behavior. We also report on several moderating effects that are in line with expectations, and that support the presence of a certain amount of rationality in competitive reaction behavior.The net impact of the over-time effects of advertising and price-promotion attacks, competitive reactions and the sales effectiveness of each, is that competitors' sales are generally not affected, and especially not in the long run. We weigh the evidence that this sales neutrality is 'natural' (i.e., due to the nature of consumer response) versus 'managed' (i.e., due to the vigilance and effectiveness of competitors), and conclude in favor of the former.

Quantum Hall Transition in the Classical Limit

We study the quantum Hall transition using the density-density correlation function. We show that in the limit h->0 the electron density moves along the percolating trajectories, undergoing normal diffusion. The localization exponent coincides with its percolation value \nu=4/3. The framework provides a natural way to study the renormalization group flow from percolation to quantum Hall transition. We also confirm numerically that the critical conductivity of a classical limit of quantum Hall transition is \sigma_{xx} = \sqrt{3}/4.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures; substantial changes include the critical conductivity calculatio

Anomalous Roughness in Dimer-Type Surface Growth

We point out how geometric features affect the scaling properties of non-equilibrium dynamic processes, by a model for surface growth where particles can deposit and evaporate only in dimer form, but dissociate on the surface. Pinning valleys (hill tops) develop spontaneously and the surface facets for all growth (evaporation) biases. More intriguingly, the scaling properties of the rough one dimensional equilibrium surface are anomalous. Its width, $W\sim L^\alpha$, diverges with system size $L$, as $\alpha={1/3}$ instead of the conventional universal value $\alpha={1/2}$. This originates from a topological non-local evenness constraint on the surface configurations.Comment: Published version in PR

An exact universal amplitude ratio for percolation

The universal amplitude ratio $\tilde{R}_{\xi}$ for percolation in two dimensions is determined exactly using results for the dilute A model in regime 1, by way of a relationship with the q-state Potts model for q<4.Comment: 5 pages, LaTeX, submitted to J. Phys. A. One paragraph rewritten to correct error

Temperature Dependence of Facet Ridges in Crystal Surfaces

The equilibrium crystal shape of a body-centered solid-on-solid (BCSOS) model on a honeycomb lattice is studied numerically. We focus on the facet ridge endpoints (FRE). These points are equivalent to one dimensional KPZ-type growth in the exactly soluble square lattice BCSOS model. In our more general context the transfer matrix is not stochastic at the FRE points, and a more complex structure develops. We observe ridge lines sticking into the rough phase where thesurface orientation jumps inside the rounded part of the crystal. Moreover, the rough-to-faceted edges become first-order with a jump in surface orientation, between the FRE point and Pokrovsky-Talapov (PT) type critical endpoints. The latter display anisotropic scaling with exponent $z=3$ instead of familiar PT value $z=2$.Comment: 12 pages, 19 figure

Safe food and feed through an integrated toolbox for mycotoxin management: the MyToolBox approach

There is a pressing need to mobilise the wealth of knowledge from the international mycotoxin research conductedover the past 25-30 years, and to perform cutting-edge research where knowledge gaps still exist. This knowledgeneeds to be integrated into affordable and practical tools for farmers and food processors along the chain inorder to reduce the risk of mycotoxin contamination of crops, feed and food. This is the mission of MyToolBox – a four-year project which has received funding from the European Commission. It mobilises a multi-actorpartnership (academia, farmers, technology small and medium sized enterprises, food industry and policystakeholders) to develop novel interventions aimed at achieving a significant reduction in crop losses due tomycotoxin contamination. Besides a field-to-fork approach, MyToolBox also considers safe use options ofcontaminated batches, such as the efficient production of biofuels. Compared to previous efforts of mycotoxin reduction strategies, the distinguishing feature of MyToolBox is to provide the recommended measures to theend users along the food and feed chain in a web-based MyToolBox platform (e-toolbox). The project focuseson small grain cereals, maize, peanuts and dried figs, applicable to agricultural conditions in the EU and China. Crop losses using existing practices are being compared with crop losses after novel pre-harvest interventionsincluding investigation of genetic resistance to fungal infection, cultural control (e.g. minimum tillage or cropdebris treatment), the use of novel biopesticides suitable for organic farming, competitive biocontrol treatment and development of novel modelling approaches to predict mycotoxin contamination. Research into post-harvestmeasures includes real-time monitoring during storage, innovative sorting of crops using vision-technology, novelmilling technology and studying the effects of baking on mycotoxins at an industrial scale

Finite-Size Scaling in Two-dimensional Continuum Percolation Models

We test the universal finite-size scaling of the cluster mass order parameter in two-dimensional (2D) isotropic and directed continuum percolation models below the percolation threshold by computer simulations. We found that the simulation data in the 2D continuum models obey the same scaling expression of mass M to sample size L as generally accepted for isotropic lattice problems, but with a positive sign of the slope in the ln-ln plot of M versus L. Another interesting aspect of the finite-size 2D models is also suggested by plotting the normalized mass in 2D continuum and lattice bond percolation models, versus an effective percolation parameter, independently of the system structure (i.e. lattice or continuum) and of the possible directions allowed for percolation (i.e. isotropic or directed) in regions close to the percolation thresholds. Our study is the first attempt to map the scaling behaviour of the mass for both lattice and continuum model systems into one curve.Comment: 9 pages, Revtex, 2 PostScript figure

Particle Dynamics in a Mass-Conserving Coalescence Process

We consider a fully asymmetric one-dimensional model with mass-conserving coalescence. Particles of unit mass enter at one edge of the chain and coalescence while performing a biased random walk towards the other edge where they exit. The conserved particle mass acts as a passive scalar in the reaction process $A+A\to A$, and allows an exact mapping to a restricted ballistic surface deposition model for which exact results exist. In particular, the mass- mass correlation function is exactly known. These results complement earlier exact results for the $A+A\to A$ process without mass. We introduce a comprehensive scaling theory for this process. The exact anaytical and numerical results confirm its validity.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figure