Specification of investment functions in Sub-Saharan Africa

It is a well-known fact that one of the most important determinants of growth is private investment. But in the developing country context of widespread poverty, the effects of initial conditions on the process of capital accumulation have seldom been investigated. This paper highlights heterogeneity in the process of capital accumulation across different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, and derives a formal specification of investment functions in the primary, industry, and service sectors in the region using a variation of the combined Tobin's Q Theory and the neoclassical models of investment. The results highlight a more rapid accumulation of capital in the relatively high income subpanel and a widening public-private capital accumulation gap. A functional specification points to the significance of aggregate profitability shocks, the financing cost of investment, and public capital stock in estimating the growth rate of private capital accumulation. These results are supported empirically, as highlighted by the relatively small absolute deviation between actual and predicted value distributions.Investment and Investment Climate,Economic Theory&Research,Trade and Regional Integration,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Economic Growth

Banking sector openness and economic growth

Banking sector openness may directly affect growth by improving the access to financial services and indirectly by improving the efficiency of financial intermediaries, both of which reduce the cost of financing, and in turn, stimulate capital accumulation and economic growth. The objective of the paper is to empirically reinvestigate these direct and indirect links using a more advanced econometric technique (GMM dynamic panel estimators). An illustrative model is presented to link financial market development with investment. The empirical results confirm the presence of direct and indirect links, and thus provide support for countries planning to open their banking sector for international competition.Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Achieving Shared Growth,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring

Micro efficiency and macro growth

This paper is about micro foundations of productivity and growth. There are several studies on productivity for advanced economies but relatively few for developing countries. Using data from the investment climate surveys of the World Bank, estimation results from 45 developing countries, complemented by extended analysis at firm and industry levels for Brazil and India for the period 2002-05, indicate the following: (i) confirmation of the importance of total factor productivity at firm, industry and national levels, but total factor productivity progressively tapersoff at each level of aggregation implying that there is a less than one-to-one relationship between micro-efficiency, sector growth, and macro growth; (ii) capital accumulation is more important at the macro level than the micro level; (iii) productivity at the micro level is driven by research and development, the capacity utilization rate, and adoption of foreign technology (all of which involve management decisions), and is negatively related to corruption and instability, tax, and financial regulations; and (iii) confirmation of the lower contribution of total factor productivity to output growth in developing countries than in developed economies. Management decisions are involved in a lot of day-to-day operations at the firm level and therefore management is an unmeasured input. In developing countries, at the firm level, there is a need to understand the contribution of quality of inputs (management quality, education and labor quality, training, experience of workers, use of computers at work) and also the role of external agglomeration (for example, location in a booming city, competitive pressures from new firms, trade competition, and regulations).Economic Theory&Research,Economic Growth,Labor Policies,Achieving Shared Growth,E-Business

Post-HIPC growth dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa

Access to debt relief under the Highly Indebted Poor Country Initiative enhanced the growth performance across Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in the subset of debt-ridden low-income countries. Over the past few years, these Completion Point countries have enjoyed significantly higher investments and growth rates, primarily fueled by the expanding fiscal space of the post-Highly Indebted Poor Country Initiative era. They are also weathering the adverse effects of the global crisis much better than their non-Highly Indebted Poor Country Initiative counterparts. Despite these growth rebounds, the region is not likely to meet the Millennium Development Goals, however. Long-term growth projections from a simple macroeconomic model, which is applied to Ethiopia, suggest that prospects for reversing the widening income gaps with other regions of the developing world are limited. Under the baseline scenario, assuming current growth trends, the estimates show that it could take more than five decades for per capita real income to double in Ethiopia. However, even these gloomy prospects are likely to be undermined by the looming risk of another sovereign debt crisis. In effect, the experiments show that lowering interest rates on external debt would not bridge the widening income gap with other regions of the world, unless it is accompanied by a rapid expansion of capital accumulation financed by sustained inflows of foreign aid.Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Access to Finance,Currencies and Exchange Rates

Foreign bank entry, performance of domestic banks, and sequence of financial liberalization

The openness or internationalization of financial services is a complex issue because it is closely related to structural reforms in the domestic financial sector with some perceived implications for macroeconomic stability. The authors investigate the impact of foreign bank entry on the performance of domestic banks and how this relationship is affected by the sequence of financial liberalization. Their data set is constructed from the BANKSCOPE database, including 30 industrial and developing countries, and covering the period from 1995 to 2002. The authors apply panel data regressions by pooling all countries together, and by grouping countries according to the sequence of their financial liberalization. One observation based on descriptive analysis is that the degree of openness to foreign bank entry varies a great deal, which is not correlated with average income levels or with GDP growth. Second, the sequence of financial liberalization matters for the performance of the domestic banking sector: After controlling for macroeconomic variables and grouping countries by their sequence of liberalization, foreign bank entry has significantly improved domestic bank competitiveness in countries that liberalized their stock market first. In these countries, both profit and cost indicators are negatively related to the share of foreign banks. Countries that liberalized their capital account first seem to have benefited less from foreign bank entry compared with the other two sets of countries.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Banks&Banking Reform,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Economics,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Banking Law

Contracting models of the Phillips curve - empirical estimates for Middle-income countries

This paper provides empirical estimates of contracting models of the Phillips curve for four middle-income developing economies-Chile, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and Turkey. Following an analytical review, models with both one lead and one lag, and two lags and three leads, are then estimated using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques. The results indicate that for both Chile and Turkey past and future inflation are of about the same magnitude in affecting current inflation. In Korea past inflation has a larger impact on inflation, whereas in the Philippines it is future inflation that plays a larger role. Homogeneity restrictions are satisfied for Korea and Turkey, but not for Chile and the Philippines.Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Markets and Market Access,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets

How Public Spending Can Help You Grow: An Empirical Analysis for Developing Countries

Although many studies indicate that both the level and composition of public spending are significant for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature are still mixed. This note is based on a paper of the same title (Bayraktar and Moreno-Dodson 2010) that compares a set of fast-growing developing countries to a mix of developing countries with different growth patterns. Considering the full government budget constraint, the empirical analysis shows that public spending, especially its “core” components, contributes to economic growth only in countries that are capable of using funds for productive purposes. In addition, those countries must have an adequate economic policy environment with macroeconomic stability, openness, and private sector investments that are conducive to growth.public spending, growth, developing countries, fiscal budget, government spending, economic policy, macroeconomic stability, openness, private sector

A macroeconomic framework for quantifying growth and poverty reduction strategies in Niger

The authors apply the dynamic macroeconomic framework developed by Agénor, Bayraktar, and El Aynaoui (2004) to Niger. As in the original model, linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health), and growth are explicitly captured. Although the nominal exchange rate is fixed, the relative price of domestic goods is endogenous, thereby allowing for potential Dutch disease effects associated with increases in aid. The authors assess the impact of policy shocks on poverty by using partial growth elasticities. They perform various policy experiments, including an increase in the level of foreign aid, a reallocation of public investment toward infrastructure, and neutral and non-neutral cuts in tariffs. The simulations show the dynamic tradeoffs that these policies entail with respect to growth and poverty reduction in Niger.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management

The composition of public expenditure and growth : a small-scale intertemporal model for low-income countries

This paper presents a small-scale intertemporal model of endogenous growth that accounts for the composition of public expenditure and externalities associated with public capital. Government spending is disaggregated into various components, including maintenance, security, and investment in education, health, and core infrastructure. After studying its long-run properties, the model is calibrated for Haiti, using country-specific information as well as parameter estimates from the literature. A variety of policy experiments are then reported, including a reallocation of spending aimed at creating fiscal space to promote public investment; an improvement in fiscal management that leads to a reduction in tax collection costs; higher spending on security; and a composite fiscal package.,Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Public Sector Expenditure Analysis&Management

How can public spending help you grow? an empirical analysis for developing countries

Although many studies indicate that both the level and composition of public spending are significant for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature are still mixed. This paper studies the importance of country sample selection and expenditure classification in explaining these conflicting results. It investigates a set of fast-growing countries versus a mix of countries with different growth patterns. The regression specifications include different components of public expenditure and total fiscal revenues, always considering the overall government budget constraint. Total public spending is first disaggregated using a definition that classifies public spending as productive versus unproductive components, an a priori criterion that is based on the expected impact of public spending items on the private sector production function. After empirically confirming the validity of this definition in the panel analysis, the authors suggest and test an alternative definition of"core"public spending that may be more appropriate for developing countries. The empirical analysis shows that the link between growth and public spending, especially the productive and"core"components, is strong only for the fast-growing group. In addition, macroeconomic stability, openness, and private sector investment are significant in the fast-growing group, which points to the existence of an economic policy environment more conducive to growth in the first group of countries. The authors conclude that public spending can be a significant determinant of growth for countries that are capable of using funds for productive purposes.Public Sector Expenditure Policy,Subnational Economic Development,Public Sector Economics,Debt Markets,Achieving Shared Growth