7 research outputs found
A Composite Leading Indicator for the Hotel Industry
This study constructs composite leading indicators to predict turns
in the growth cycle of hotel occupancy for hotels in Hong Kong with
different tariffs, as well as for all hotels in Hong Kong. First, a
composite leading indicator for each of the top five source markets
– mainland China, Taiwan, Japan, the USA and South Korea – was
constructed using selected economic variables. Second, a composite
leading indicator for all hotel categories in Hong Kong was
constructed by combining the leading indicators constructed for each
source market, using tourism market share and the cross-correlation
coefficient as weightings. Third, the combined composite indicator
was compared with the published OECD composite leading indicator
and the OECD business survey index, which were constructed using
the same weighting methods. In order to identify the best weighting
method and to select the best composite leading indicator for
different tariff categories of hotels, this study assessed the probability
forecasts from the logistic regression leading indicator models using
the quadratic probability score (QPS). The result shows that the
composite leading indicator combined with tourism market share
provides more accurate forecasts than the composite leading indicator
combined with the coefficient of correlation