Channels’ Confirmation and Predictions’ Confirmation: From the Medical Test to the Raven Paradox

After long arguments between positivism and falsificationism, the verification of universal hypotheses was replaced with the confirmation of uncertain major premises. Unfortunately, Hemple proposed the Raven Paradox. Then, Carnap used the increment of logical probability as the confirmation measure. So far, many confirmation measures have been proposed. Measure F proposed by Kemeny and Oppenheim among them possesses symmetries and asymmetries proposed by Elles and Fitelson, monotonicity proposed by Greco et al., and normalizing property suggested by many researchers. Based on the semantic information theory, a measure b* similar to F is derived from the medical test. Like the likelihood ratio, measures b* and F can only indicate the quality of channels or the testing means instead of the quality of probability predictions. Furthermore, it is still not easy to use b*, F, or another measure to clarify the Raven Paradox. For this reason, measure c* similar to the correct rate is derived. Measure c* supports the Nicod Criterion and undermines the Equivalence Condition, and hence, can be used to eliminate the Raven Paradox. An example indicates that measures F and b* are helpful for diagnosing the infection of Novel Coronavirus, whereas most popular confirmation measures are not. Another example reveals that all popular confirmation measures cannot be used to explain that a black raven can confirm “Ravens are black” more strongly than a piece of chalk. Measures F, b*, and c* indicate that the existence of fewer counterexamples is more important than more positive examples’ existence, and hence, are compatible with Popper’s falsification thought

Chapter 4

The Nicod Lectures book

Chapter 19

The Jean-Nicod Lectures 2002 (expanded version

Large magnetoresistance at room-temperature in semiconducting polymer sandwich devices

We report on the discovery of a large, room temperature magnetoresistance (MR) effect in polyfluorene sandwich devices in weak magnetic fields. We characterize this effect and discuss its dependence on voltage, temperature, film thickness, electrode materials, and (unintentional) impurity concentration. We usually observed negative MR, but positive MR can also be achieved under high applied electric fields. The MR effect reaches up to 10% at fields of 10mT at room temperature. The effect shows only a weak temperature dependence and is independent of the sign and direction of the magnetic field. We find that the effect is related to the hole current in the devices.Comment: 3 pages, 4 figure