Household Cost Functions and Equivalence Scales

We describe a simple method to estimate household cost functions and family equivalence scales. It is an alternative to standard methods as it does not assume strong postulates about utility maximization nor any functionally specified model equations. The data requirements are extremely modest. We assume interpersonal ordinal comparability in the sense of Sen (1976) and use empirical evidence for eight European countries and the U.S. to show the feasibility of the method and the stability of its results. We also show that subjective data like those provided by income evaluation questions may be used without adopting a cardinal utility framework.

Volatility expectations and disagreement

This paper examines the use of survey-based measures in volatility forecasting. We argue that an aggregate volatility forecast built up from individual forecasts should be the sum of individual expected volatilities and the dispersion in mean return forecasts. We use data coming from a repeated survey to capture volatility expectations and mean returns of investors, and to produce aggregate volatility forecasts. Our survey-based volatility forecasts are consistent and quantitatively similar with forecasts based on GARCH and implied volatility models. This result is robust to both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons and in response to news

Aspergillus test profiles and mortality in critically ill covid-19 patients

The literature regarding COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) has shown conflicting observations, including survival of CAPA patients not receiving antifungal therapy and discrepancy between CAPA diagnosis and autopsy findings. To gain insight into the pathophysiology of CAPA, we performed a case-control study in which we compared Aspergillus test profiles in CAPA patients and controls in relation to intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. This was a multinational case-control study in which Aspergillus test results, use of antifungal therapy, and mortality were collected from critically ill COVID-19 patients. Patients were classified using the 2020 European Confederation for Medical Mycology and the International Society for Human and Animal Mycology (ECMM/ ISHAM) consensus case definitions. We analyzed 219 critically ill COVID-19 cases, including 1 proven, 38 probable, 19 possible CAPA cases, 21 Aspergillus-colonized patients, 7 patients only positive for serum (1,3)-b-D-glucan (BDG), and 133 cases with no evidence of CAPA. Mortality was 53.8% in CAPA patients compared to 24.1% in patients without CAPA (P = 0.001). Positive serum galactomannan (GM) and BDG were associated with increased mortality compared to serum biomarker-negative CAPA patients (87.5% versus 41.7%, P = 0.046; 90.0% versus 42.1%, P = 0.029, respectively). For each point increase in GM or 10-point BDG serum concentration, the odds of death increased (GM, odds ratio [OR] 10.208, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.621 to 64.291, P = 0.013; BDG, OR, 1.247, 95% CI, 1.029 to 1.511, P = 0.024). CAPA is a complex disease, probably involving a continuum of respiratory colonization, tissue invasion, and angioinvasion. Serum biomarkers are useful for staging CAPA disease progression and, if positive, indicate angioinvasion and a high probability of mortality. There is need for a biomarker that distinguishes between respiratory tract colonization and tissue-invasive CAPA disease