Asset Prices and Financing Constraints: Firm-Level Evidence

We derive a theoretical link between firms ’ returns on physical investment in the presence of financing constraints and the asset returns. Using this framework and firm-level data, we estimate the effects of financing frictions on investment returns. The quantitative role of financing costs, captured by the estimated financing premium in the investment Euler condition, seems to be quite negligible. This result holds when we use both aggregate measures of business conditions as well as firm specific characteristics as proxies for the external financing premium

Fresh Start or Head Start? The Effect of Filing for Personal Bankruptcy on the Labor Supply ∗ Song Han The Federal Reserve Board

The key feature of the modern U.S. personal bankruptcy law is to provide debtors a financial fresh start through debt discharge. The primary justification for the discharge policy is to preserve human capital by maintaining incentives for work. In this paper, we test this fresh start argument by providing the first estimate of the effect of personal bankruptcy filing on the labor supply using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Our econometric approach controls for the endogenous self-selection of bankruptcy filing and allows for dependence over timeforthesamehousehold. We find that filing for bankruptcy does not have a positive impact on annual hours worked by bankrupt households, a result mainly due to the wealth effects of debt discharge. The finding is robust to a number of alternative model specifications and sample selections. Therefore, our analysis does not find supporting evidence for the human capital argument for bankruptcy discharge

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Research and development (R&D) is a key determinant of long run productivity and welfare. A central issue is whether a decentralized economy undertakes too little or too much R&D. We develop an endogenous growth model that incorporates parametrically four important distortions to R&D: the surplus appropriability problem, knowledge spillovers, creative destruction, and congestion externalities. We show that our model is consistent with the available evidence on R&D, growth, and markups. Calibrating the model to micro and macro data, we find that the decentralized economy typically underinvests in R&D relative to what is socially optimal. The only exceptions to this conclusion occur when both the congestion externality is extremely strong and the equilibrium real interest rate is very high. These results are robust to reasonable variations in model parameters

The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security

Is the stock market boom a result of the baby boom? This paper develops an overlapping generations model in which a baby boom is modeled as a high realization of a random birth rate, and the price of capital is determined endogenously by a convex cost of adjustment. A baby boom increases national saving and investment and thus causes an increase in the price of capital. The price of capital is meanreverting so the initial increase in the price of capital is followed by a decrease. Social Security can potentially affect national saving and investment, though in the long run, it does not affect the price of capital. Keywords

Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Order Flow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve

We examine the role of price discovery in the U.S. Treasury market through the empirical relationship between orderflow, liquidity, and the yield curve. We find that orderflow imbalances (excess buying or selling pressure) account for up to 26 % of the day-to-day variation in yields on days without major macroeconomic announcements. The effect of orderflow on yields is permanent and strongest when liquidity is low. All of the evidence points toward an important role of price discovery in understanding the behavior of the yield curve. THE USE OF RISKLESS INTEREST RATES PERMEATES virtually every facet of economics and finance. It is therefore critical to understand the behavior of the term structure of riskless interest rates, or the yield curve, which gives the mapping between the maturity of a riskless loan and its rate. Much of the term structure literature focuses on factor models in which, at each date, the yields on all bonds with different maturities are determined by the realizations of a few common factors (e.g., Vasicek (1977); Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985)). The consensus is that more than one, but not many more than three factors capture the shape and day-to-day variation of the yield curve well. Although these factors are typically not uniquely identified, it is common to think of them as the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve (e.g., Litterman and Scheinkman (1991)). Economists are ultimately interested in understanding why and how the yield curve changes. We conjecture that at least two complementary mechanisms are responsible for the day-to-day yield changes. First, yields are determined by public information flow, such as periodically scheduled macroeconomic announcements. Assuming that the basic structure of the economy and the interpretation of the announcement are common knowledge among al

and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security

Is the stock market boom a result of the baby boom? This paper develops an overlapping generations model in which a baby boom is modeled as a high realization of a random birth rate, and the price of capital is determined endogenously by a convex cost of adjustment. A baby boom increases national saving and investment and thus causes an increase in the price of capital. The price of capital is meanreverting so the initial increase in the price of capital is followed by a decrease. Social Security can potentially affect national saving and investment, though in the long run, it does not affect the price of capital. Keywords

What’s in a picture? Evidence of discrimination from Prosper.com

We analyze discrimination in a new type of credit market known as peer-to-peer lending. Specifically, we examine how lenders in this online market respond to signals of characteristics such as race, age, and gender that are conveyed via pictures and text. We find evidence of significant racial disparities; loan listings with blacks in the attached picture are 25 to 35 percent less likely to receive funding than those of whites with similar credit profiles. Conditional on receiving a loan, the interest rate paid by blacks is 60 to 80 basis points higher than that paid by comparable whites. Though less significant than the effects for race, we find that the market also discriminates somewhat against the elderly and the overweight, but in favor of women and those that signal military involvement. Despite the higher average interest rates charged to blacks, lenders making such loans earn a lower net return compared to loans made to whites with similar credit profiles because blacks have higher relative default rates. This pattern of net returns is inconsistent with theories of accurate statistical discrimination (equal net returns) or costly taste-based preferences against loaning money to black borrowers (higher net returns for blacks). It is instead consistent with partial taste-based preferences by lenders in favor of blacks over whites or with systematic underestimation by lenders of relative default rates between blacks and whites

March 2002 DOES LOCAL FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT MATTER?

We study the effects of differences in local financial development within an integrated financial market. To do so, we construct a new indicator of financial development by estimating a regional effect on the probability that, ceteris paribus, a household is shut off from the credit market. By using this indicator we find that financial development enhances the probability an individual starts his own business, favors entry, increases competition, and promotes growth of firms. As predicted by theory, these effects are weaker for larger firms, which can more easily raise funds outside of the local area. Overall, the results suggest local financial development is an important determinant of the economic success of an area even in an environment where there are no frictions to capital movements. JEL Classification: G30

Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle

A striking feature of U.S. data on income and consumption is that inequality increases with age. This paper asks if individual-specific earnings risk can provide a coherent explanation. We find that it can. We construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households face uninsurable earnings shocks over the course of their lifetimes. Earnings inequality is exogenous and is calibrated to match data from the U.S. Panel Study on Income Dynamics. Consumption inequality is endogenous and matches well data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey. The total risk households face is decomposed into that realized before entering the labor market and that realized throughout the working years. In welfare terms, the latter is found to be more important than the former

13-02 The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security

Is the stock market boom a result of the baby boom? This paper develops an overlapping generations model in which a baby boom is modeled as a high realization of a random birth rate, and the price of capital is determined endogenously by a convex cost of adjustment. A baby boom increases national saving and investment and thus causes an increase in the price of capital. The price of capital is meanreverting so the initial increase in the price of capital is followed by a decrease. Social Security can potentially affect national saving and investment, though in the long run, it does not affect the price of capital. Keywords