SEA LEVEL RISE AND EQUITY WEIGHTING

Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of national socio-economic scenarios. This model balances the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase due to greater damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection seems to dominate, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. However, there are some important limitations to the analysis, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND analysis. Equity weighting allows the damages to be modified to reflect the wealth of those impacted by sea-level rise. Taking these distributional issues into account increases damage estimates by a factor of three, reflecting that the coasts fall disproportionately on poorer developing countries.climate change, sea level rise, equity weighting

GLOBAL ESTIMATES OF THE IMPACT OF A COLLAPSE OF THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET: AN APPLICATION OF FUND

The threat of an abrupt and extreme rise in sea level is widely discussed in the media, but little understood in practise, including the likely impacts of such a rise. This paper explores for the first time the global impacts of extreme sea-level rise, triggered by a hypothetical collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). As the potential contributions remain uncertain, a wide range of scenarios are explored: WAIS contributions to sea-level rise of between 0.5m/century up to 5m/century. Together with other business-as-usual sea-level contributions, in the worst case this gives an approximately 6-m rise of global-mean sea level from 2030 to 2130. Global exposure to extreme sea-level rise is significant: roughly 400 million people (or about 8% of global population) are threatened by a 5-m rise in sea level, just based on 1995 data. The coastal module within the FUND model is tuned with global data on coastal zone characteristics concerning population, land areas and land use, and then used for impact analysis under the extreme sea-level rise scenarios. The model considers the interaction of (dry)land loss, wetland loss, protection costs and human displacement, assuming perfect adaptation based on cost-benefit analysis. Unlike earlier analyses, response costs are represented in a non-linear manner, including a sensitivity analysis based on response costs. It is found that much of the world’s coast would be abandoned given these extreme scenarios, although according to the global model, significant lengths of the world’s coast are worth defending even in the most extreme case. Hence, this suggests that actual population displacement would be a small fraction of the potential population displacement. This result is consistent with the present distribution of coastal population, which is heavily concentrated in specific areas. Hence a partial defence can protect most of the world’s coastal population. However, protection costs rise substantially diverting large amounts of investment from other sectors, and large areas of (dry)land and coastal wetlands are still predicted to be lost. While some observations of response to abrupt relative sea-level rise due to subsidence support the global model results, detailed case studies of the WAIS collapse in the Netherlands, Thames Estuary and the Rhone delta suggest a greater potential for abandonment than shown by the global model. This probably reflects a range of issues, including: (1) economic criteria such as the cost-benefit ratio is not the only factor which drives response decisions, with wider perceptions of risk driving the actual response; (2) the inefficiencies of adaptation in the real world, including indecision and competition for limited resources; and (3) the possible loss of confidence under the scenario of abrupt climate change. Collectively, these results illustrate an area where there are potential limits to adaptation, even when economic analysis suggests that adaptation will occur. The significant impacts found in the global model together with the potential for greater impacts as found in the detailed case studies shows that the response to abrupt sea-level rise is worthy of further research, including exploring the differing impact results by scale.Abrupt climate change, sea-level rise, coastal impacts, adaptation, adaptation limits

The Economic Impact of Substantial Sea-Level Rise

Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of socio-economic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES storylines. This model balances the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase with greater rise due to greater damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection dominates, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. This is underpinned by the strong economic growth in all the SRES scenarios: without this growth, the benefits of protection are significantly reduced. It should also be noted that some important limitations to the analysis are discussed, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND results. Equity weighting allows the damages to be modified to reflect the wealth of those impacted by sea-level rise. Taking these distributional issues into account increases damage estimates by a factor of three, reflecting that the costs of sea-level rise fall disproportionately on poorer developing countries.Sea-level rise;Socio-economic scenarios;costs;protection;equity weighting

The role of intracoronary imaging in translational research

Abstract: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is a key public health concern worldwide and leading cause of morbidity, mortality and health economic costs. Understanding atherosclerotic plaque microstructure in relation to molecular mechanisms that underpin its initiation and progression is needed to provide the best chance of combating this disease. Evolving vessel wall-based, endovascular coronary imaging modalities, including intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), optical coherence tomography (OCT) and near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), used in isolation or as hybrid modalities, have been advanced to allow comprehensive visualization of the pathological substrate of coronary atherosclerosis and accurately measure temporal changes in both the vessel wall and plaque characteristics. This has helped further our appreciation of the natural history of coronary artery disease (CAD) and the risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), evaluate the responsiveness to conventional and experimental therapeutic interventions, and assist in guiding percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Here we review the use of different imaging modalities for these purposes and the lessons they have provided thus far.Nicholas J. Montarello, Adam J. Nelson, Johan Verjans, Stephen J. Nicholls, Peter J. Psalti

Cardiac computed tomography radiomics for the non-invasive assessment of coronary inflammation

Radiomics, via the extraction of quantitative information from conventional radiologic images, can identify imperceptible imaging biomarkers that can advance the characterization of coronary plaques and the surrounding adipose tissue. Such an approach can unravel the underlying pathophysiology of atherosclerosis which has the potential to aid diagnostic, prognostic and, therapeutic decision making. Several studies have demonstrated that radiomic analysis can characterize coronary atherosclerotic plaques with a level of accuracy comparable, if not superior, to current conventional qualitative and quantitative image analysis. While there are many milestones still to be reached before radiomics can be integrated into current clinical practice, such techniques hold great promise for improving the imaging phenotyping of coronary artery disease.Kevin Cheng, Andrew Lin, Jeremy Yuvaraj, Stephen J. Nicholls and Dennis T.L. Won

Faint Infrared Flares from the Microquasar GRS 1915+105

We present simultaneous infrared and X-ray observations of the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 using the Palomar 5-m telescope and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer on July 10, 1998 UT. Over the course of 5 hours, we observed 6 faint infrared (IR) flares with peak amplitudes of $\sim 0.3-0.6$ mJy and durations of $\sim 500-600$ seconds. These flares are associated with X-ray soft-dip/soft-flare cycles, as opposed to the brighter IR flares associated with X-ray hard-dip/soft-flare cycles seen in August 1997 by Eikenberry et al. (1998). Interestingly, the IR flares begin {\it before} the X-ray oscillations, implying an ``outside-in'' origin of the IR/X-ray cycle. We also show that the quasi-steady IR excess in August 1997 is due to the pile-up of similar faint flares. We discuss the implications of this flaring behavior for understanding jet formation in microquasars.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Blood pressure surveillance in cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors

Published online: 19 April 2023. OnlinePublImmune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) are cancer therapies that have been associated with increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Blood pressure (BP) measurements are routinely performed during day oncology center visits for administration of ICI therapy but are often not assessed temporally to screen and monitor hypertension, which could independently increase the risk of ASCVD in cancer survivorship. This study reports the feasibility of using serial BP measurements from routine visits to day oncology center to diagnose and monitor hypertension control in cancer patients receiving ICIs.Sean Tan, Ella Spear, Nikhita Sane, Adam J. Nelson, Nitesh Nerlekar, Eva Segelov and Stephen J. Nicholl

Atherogenic index of plasma is associated with epicardial adipose tissue volume assessed on coronary computed tomography angiography

Published online: 10 June 2022The atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) is a novel biomarker of atherogenic dyslipidaemia (AD), but its relationship with cardiac adipose tissue depots is unknown. We aimed to assess the association of AD with cardiac adipose tissue parameters on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). We studied 161 patients who underwent CCTA between 2008 and 2011 (age 59.0 ± 14.0 years). AD was defined as triglyceride (TG) > 1.7 mmol/L and HDL 3, age, male sex and type II diabetes when corrected for traditional risk factors and plaque burden. AIP is associated with increased EAT volume, but not PCAT-a, after multivariable adjustment. These findings indicate AIP is associated with adverse adipose tissue changes which may increase coronary risk.Jeremy Yuvaraj, Mourushi Isa, Zhu Chung Che, Egynne Lim, Nitesh Nerlekar, Stephen J. Nicholls, Sujith Seneviratne, Andrew Lin, Damini Dey and Dennis T. L. Won

Good heart: telling stories of cardiovascular protective and risk factors for Aboriginal women

BACKGROUND:Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples' perspectives of health and cultural wellbeing encapsulate the spiritual, social and environmental health of individuals, their communities and country. Strategies designed to reduce the cardiovascular burden of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people often fail to consider their unique knowledge and worldview. METHODS:This adapted, grounded theory study sought to explore Aboriginal women's views of cardiovascular protective and risk factors. RESULTS:Twenty-eight (28) women from five women's groups across Central and South Australia participated. Women distinguished the heart as core to their spiritual and physical wellbeing. Women identified six attributes that keep a woman's heart strong, four that can make the heart sick, and eight socio-ecological factors which affect a woman's capacity to care for their heart. Women described having a healthy heart when able to identify as Aboriginal women, being connected to family and community, having a healthy life and body, and being engaged in their health and health care. CONCLUSIONS:There are gaps in the provision of cardiovascular risk assessment and management, gaps in the cultural safety of primary health care services, and gaps in the communication of the sex-specific warning signs of a heart attack, all of which must be addressed.Katharine F.McBride, Christine Franks, Vicki Wade, Veronica King, Janice Rigney, Nyunmiti Burton ... et al