Contra Epstein, Good Explanations Predict

Epstein has argued that an explanation\'s capacity to make predictions should play a minor role in its evaluation . This view contradicts centuries of scientific practice and, at least, decades of philosophy of science. We argue that the view is not only unfounded but seems to arise from a mistaken fear that ABM models are in need of defense against the criticism that they don\'t necessarily forecast events in the natural or social world.ABM, Agent Based Model, Modeling, Prediction, Explanation, Philosophy of Science

Critical Properties in the Assembly Call of the Common American Crow

According to tradition, the communication system of the American crow, Corvus brachyrhynchos, consists of an assortment of distinct sounds each of which is used in a particular context and has a unique meaning. Despite this traditional view, we have made field observations which suggested that the sounds employed in various different functional contexts overlap considerably. These observations further suggested that each sound does not have a single unique meaning, but that its meaning varies depending upon how it and similar sounds are temporally organized into calling sequences. In order to investigate this idea, a series of experiments were performed in which the temporal properties of natural sounds recorded from crows in the field were changed. These experiments were concerned primarily with the vocalization known as the assembly call. The assembly call consists of series of sounds which are low, harsh, and variable in pitch and timing. Broadcast to crows in the field, recorded assembly calls provoke an aggregation of crows to the sound source about twenty-five percent of the time. The recordings broadcasted were of two sorts: sequences made up by modifying the temporal properties of a natural assembly call and sequences of sounds derived from calls given in other functional contexts which were then rearranged to approximate the temporal properties of an assembly call. These calls were tested on wild crows in the field. A presentation of a call was counted successful if at least one crow approached the sound source on a direct line. Different calls were compared with respect to the proportion of successful presentations. The results show that not all types of crow sounds can be manufactured into effective assembly calls. A high pitched call, even when arranged to approximate the temporal properties of the assembly call does not assemble crows at rates approaching the rate of assembly to natural assembly calls. On the other hand, the results also show that a sound need not be derived from an assembly call in order to be arranged into an effective assembly call. A call recorded in another functional context, but which has a harsh, grainy quality will assemble crows as well as or better than an assembly call if it is presented in the proper temporal arrangement. In fact, the highest rates of success were provoked by a sequence of such sounds having a high rate of emission and organized into short cycles of increasing rate. Such a call is two to four times more effective than a natural assembly call. These results are inconsistent with the traditional view that each particular caw in the repertoire of a crow has a discrete stable meaning. An alternate hypothesis is suggested in which the meaning of a sequence of crow sounds is thought to depend not only on the properties of the caws but upon the temporal properties of the sequence as well

Levels of Organization in the Song of the Bobolink (Icteridae: Dolichonyginae)

By comparison with other icterids, the bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) sings an unusually long and complex song. The songs of four male bobolinks were analysed in terms of units at four different levels of analysis: the figure, the figure-sequence, the song-pattern, and the song. The different levels of analysis show different degrees of stereotypy and variation. Individual males in the study area differed in the frequency of use of the different song-patterns and in the way they assembled them into songs. Immediate repetition of song patterns within a song was unusual. Songs sung from fixed perches were shorter than songs sung in flight. The results suggest that the length of bobolink song is in part a consequence of its use of the song as a part of an elaborate flight display, and that the unit we called the “song-pattern” was closest to the unit designated “song” in most other species