Consumer Response to Changes in Credit Supply: Evidence from Credit Card Data

This paper utilizes a unique new data set on credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to changes in credit supply. The data consist of a panel of several hundred thousand individual credit card accounts followed monthly for 24-36 months, from several different card issuers, with associated credit bureau data. We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in the credit limit and in interest rates, and consider the ability of different models of consumption and saving to rationalize these effects. We find that increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt. This response is sharpest for people starting near their limit, providing evidence that liquidity constraints are binding. However, even people starting well below their limit significantly respond. We show this result is consistent with conventional models of precautionary savings. Nonetheless there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain, such as the fact that many credit card borrowers simultaneously hold other low yielding assets. Unlike most other studies, we also find strong effects from changes in account-specific interest rates. Debt is particularly sensitive to large declines in interest rates, which can explain the widespread use of teaser rates. The long-run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is about -1.3. Less than half of this elasticity represents balance-switching across cards, with most reflecting net changes in total borrowing. Overall, the results imply that the consumer plays a potentially important role in the transmission of monetary policy and other credit shocks.

An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency

This paper uses a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates - a deterioration in the risk - composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers' willingness to default due to declines in default costs, including social, information, and legal costs. Even after controlling for risk-composition and other economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. By contrast, increases in credit limits and other changes in risk-composition explain only a small part of the change in default rates. Standard default models appear to have missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs.

An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency

This paper uses a unique new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency and more generally personal bankruptcy and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates – a deterioration in the risk-composition of borrowers versus a reduction in the social stigma of default. Even after controlling for risk-composition and other economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. By contrast, increases in credit limits and other changes in risk-composition explain only a small part of the change in default rates. Standard default models appear to have missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with the stigma effect.Personal bankruptcy; Forecasting default; Credit risk management; Consumer credit; Credit cards

Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data

This paper utilizes a unique new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to changes in credit supply. The data consist of a panel of thousands of individual credit card accounts from several different card issuers, with associated credit bureau data. We estimate both marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) out of liquidity and interest-rate elasticities. We also evaluate the ability of different models of consumption to rationalize our results, distinguishing the Permanent-Income Hypothesis (PIH), liquidity constraints, precautionary saving, and behavioral models. We find that increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt, counter to the PIH. The average 'MPC out of liquidity' (dDebt/dLimit) ranges between 10%-14%. The MPC is much larger for people starting near their limits, consistent with binding liquidity constraints. However, the MPC is significant even for people starting well below their limit. We show this response is consistent with buffer-stock models of precautionary saving. Nonetheless there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain, e.g. why so many people are borrowing on their credit cards, and simultaneously holding low yielding assets. Unlike most other studies, we also find strong effects from changes in account-specific interest rates. The long-run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is approximately -1.3. Less than half of this elasticity represents balance-shifting across cards, with most reflecting net changes in total borrowing. The elasticity is larger for decreases in interest rates than for increases, which can explain the widespread use of temporary promotional rates. The elasticity is smaller for people starting near their credit limits, again consistent with liquidity constraints.

A Nation Deceived: How Schools Hold Back America's Brightest Students, Volume II

Provides a comprehensive review of research on the academic acceleration of gifted students