The economic and social benefits of increasing Indigenous employment

Using the latest available data and research, this paper provides estimates of the likely economic and social benefits of increasing Indigenous employment to the same level as in the non-Indigenous population. Introduction Relatively low rates of employment are one of the reasons for many of the poor economic and social outcomes experienced by Indigenous Australians. Increases in the rate of Indigenous employment would result in significant economic gains to the individuals who move into employment, and their families and communities, to the government who would receive higher tax revenues and have lower social security outlays, and the economy as a whole via the increases in the effective labour supply. The existing research also finds that there are health and social benefits that flow from paid employment. This paper, using the latest available data and research, provides estimates of the likely economic and social benefits of increasing Indigenous employment to the same level as in the non-Indigenous population (i.e. closing the employment gap). It was commissioned by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet to help inform the work of the Indigenous Jobs and Training Review chaired by Andrew Forrest

On the convergence of mirror descent beyond stochastic convex programming

In this paper, we examine the convergence of mirror descent in a class of stochastic optimization problems that are not necessarily convex (or even quasi-convex), and which we call variationally coherent. Since the standard technique of "ergodic averaging" offers no tangible benefits beyond convex programming, we focus directly on the algorithm's last generated sample (its "last iterate"), and we show that it converges with probabiility $1$ if the underlying problem is coherent. We further consider a localized version of variational coherence which ensures local convergence of stochastic mirror descent (SMD) with high probability. These results contribute to the landscape of non-convex stochastic optimization by showing that (quasi-)convexity is not essential for convergence to a global minimum: rather, variational coherence, a much weaker requirement, suffices. Finally, building on the above, we reveal an interesting insight regarding the convergence speed of SMD: in problems with sharp minima (such as generic linear programs or concave minimization problems), SMD reaches a minimum point in a finite number of steps (a.s.), even in the presence of persistent gradient noise. This result is to be contrasted with existing black-box convergence rate estimates that are only asymptotic.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figure

Factors associated with internal migration: A comparison between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians

Enhancing migration and mobility has been put forward by various commentators as a solution to Indigenous disadvantage in Australia. This paper examines patterns of migration and factors associated with both the decision to move and the choice of destination in order to assess the feasibility of this suggestion. The results suggest that Indigenous Australians are less responsive to local economic factors than other Australians, with social and cultural factors appearing to play a particularly significant role in their decision making. It is probable that this reflects a ‘rational’ response to the depressed demand for Indigenous labour across Australia and the greater opportunity for non-market activities

Examining the feasibility of an economic analysis of dyadic developmental psychotherapy for children with maltreatment associated psychiatric problems in the United Kingdom

Background: Children with maltreatment associated psychiatric problems are at increased risk of developing behavioural or mental health disorders. Dyadic Developmental Psychotherapy (DDP) was proposed as treatment for children with maltreatment histories in the USA, however, being new to the UK little is known of its effectiveness or cost-effectiveness. As part of an exploratory study, this paper explores the feasibility of undertaking economic analysis of DDP in the UK. Methods: Feasibility for economic analysis was determined by ensuring such analysis could meet key criteria for economic evaluation. Phone interviews were conducted with professionals (therapists trained and accredited or in the process of becoming accredited DDP practitioners). Three models were developed to represent alternative methods of DDP service delivery. Once appropriate comparators were determined, economic scenarios were constructed. Cost analyses were undertaken from a societal perspective. Finally, appropriate outcome measurement was explored through clinical opinion, literature and further discussions with clinical experts. Results: Three DDP models were constructed: DDP Full-Basic, DDP Home-Based and DDP Long-Term. Two potential comparator interventions were identified and defined as Consultation with Carers and Individual Psychotherapy. Costs of intervention completion per case were estimated to be: £6,700 (DDP Full-Basic), £7,100 (Consultations with Carers), £7,200 (DDP Home-Based), £11,400 (Individual Psychotherapy) and £14,500 (DDP Long-Term). None of the models of service delivery were found to currently measure effectiveness consistently. The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was deemed an appropriate primary outcome measure, however, it does not cover all disorders DDP intends to treat and the SDQ is not a direct measure of health gain. Inclusion of quality of life measurement is required for comprehensive economic analysis. Conclusions: Economic analysis of DDP in the UK is feasible if vital next steps are taken to measure intervention outcomes consistently, ideally with a quality of life measurement. An economic analysis using the models constructed could determine the potential cost-effectiveness of DDP in the UK and identify the most efficient mode of service delivery