An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency

This paper uses a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates - a deterioration in the risk - composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers' willingness to default due to declines in default costs, including social, information, and legal costs. Even after controlling for risk-composition and other economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. By contrast, increases in credit limits and other changes in risk-composition explain only a small part of the change in default rates. Standard default models appear to have missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs.

An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency

This paper uses a unique new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency and more generally personal bankruptcy and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates – a deterioration in the risk-composition of borrowers versus a reduction in the social stigma of default. Even after controlling for risk-composition and other economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. By contrast, increases in credit limits and other changes in risk-composition explain only a small part of the change in default rates. Standard default models appear to have missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with the stigma effect.Personal bankruptcy; Forecasting default; Credit risk management; Consumer credit; Credit cards

Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data

This paper utilizes a unique new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to changes in credit supply. The data consist of a panel of thousands of individual credit card accounts from several different card issuers, with associated credit bureau data. We estimate both marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) out of liquidity and interest-rate elasticities. We also evaluate the ability of different models of consumption to rationalize our results, distinguishing the Permanent-Income Hypothesis (PIH), liquidity constraints, precautionary saving, and behavioral models. We find that increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt, counter to the PIH. The average 'MPC out of liquidity' (dDebt/dLimit) ranges between 10%-14%. The MPC is much larger for people starting near their limits, consistent with binding liquidity constraints. However, the MPC is significant even for people starting well below their limit. We show this response is consistent with buffer-stock models of precautionary saving. Nonetheless there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain, e.g. why so many people are borrowing on their credit cards, and simultaneously holding low yielding assets. Unlike most other studies, we also find strong effects from changes in account-specific interest rates. The long-run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is approximately -1.3. Less than half of this elasticity represents balance-shifting across cards, with most reflecting net changes in total borrowing. The elasticity is larger for decreases in interest rates than for increases, which can explain the widespread use of temporary promotional rates. The elasticity is smaller for people starting near their credit limits, again consistent with liquidity constraints.

Role of a plausible nuisance contributor in the declining obesity-mortality risks over time.

CONTEXT: Recent analyses of epidemiological data including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) have suggested that the harmful effects of obesity may have decreased over calendar time. The shifting BMI distribution over time coupled with the application of fixed broad BMI categories in these analyses could be a plausible nuisance contributor to this observed change in the obesity-associated mortality over calendar time. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the extent to which observed temporal changes in the obesity-mortality association may be due to a shifting population distribution for body mass index (BMI), coupled with analyses based on static, broad BMI categories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Simulations were conducted using data from NHANES I and III linked with mortality data. Data from NHANES I were used to fit a true model treating BMI as a continuous variable. Coefficients estimated from this model were used to simulate mortality for participants in NHANES III. Hence, the population-level association between BMI and mortality in NHANES III was fixed to be identical to the association estimated in NHANES I. Hazard ratios (HRs) for obesity categories based on BMI for NHANES III with simulated mortality data were compared to the corresponding estimated HRs from NHANES I. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Change in hazard ratios for simulated data in NHANES III compared to observed estimates from NHANES I. RESULTS: On average, hazard ratios for NHANES III based on simulated mortality data were 29.3% lower than the estimates from NHANES I using observed mortality follow-up. This reduction accounted for roughly three-fourths of the apparent decrease in the obesity-mortality association observed in a previous analysis of these data. CONCLUSIONS: Some of the apparent diminution of the association between obesity and mortality may be an artifact of treating BMI as a categorical variable

New Understanding of Large Magellanic Cloud Structure, Dynamics and Orbit from Carbon Star Kinematics

We derive general expressions for the LMC velocity field which we fit to kinematical data for 1041 carbon stars. We demonstrate that all previous studies of LMC kinematics have made unnecessary over-simplifications that have led to incorrect estimates of important structural parameters. We compile and improve LMC proper motion estimates to support our analysis. We find that the kinematically determined position angle of the line of nodes is 129.9 +/- 6.0 deg. The LMC inclination changes at a rate di/dt = -103 +/- 61 deg/Gyr, a result of precession and nutation induced by Milky Way tidal torques. The LMC rotation curve V(R) has amplitude 49.8 +/- 15.9 km/s, 40% lower than what has previously (and incorrectly) been inferred from e.g. HI. The dynamical center of the carbon stars is consistent with the center of the bar and the center of the outer isophotes, but not with the HI kinematical center. The enclosed mass inside 8.9 kpc is (8.7 +/- 4.3) x 10^9 M_sun, more than half of which is due to a dark halo. The LMC has a larger vertical thickness than has traditionally been believed. Its V/sigma is less than the value for the Milky Way thick disk. We discuss the implications for the LMC self-lensing optical depth. We determine the LMC velocity and orbit in the Galactocentric rest frame and find it to be consistent with the range of velocities that has been predicted by models for the Magellanic Stream. The Milky Way dark halo must have mass >4.3 x 10^{11} M_sun and extent >39 kpc for the LMC to be bound. We predict the LMC proper motion velocity field, and discuss techniques for kinematical distance estimation. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 57 pages, LaTeX, with 11 PostScript figures. Submitted to the Astronomical Journa

Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence From Credit Card Data

This paper utilizes a unique data set of credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to credit supply. Increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt, counter to the Permanent-Income Hypothesis. The “MPC out of liquidity” is largest for people starting near their limit, consistent with binding liquidity constraints. However, the MPC is significant even for people starting well below their limit, consistent with precautionary models. Nonetheless, there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain, for example, why so many people are borrowing on their credit cards, and simultaneously holding low yielding assets. The long-run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is approximately -1.3, less than half of which represents balance-shifting across cards

An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency

This article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates—a deterioration in the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers’ willingness to default due to declines in default costs. Even after controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. Standard default models missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs

Importance of site of infection and antibiotic selection in the treatment of carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa sepsis

ABSTRACT In a retrospective analysis of 215 patients with carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa sepsis, we observed a significantly higher risk of mortality associated with respiratory tract infection (risk ratio [RR], 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 1.39; P = 0.010) and lower risk with urinary tract infection (RR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.90; P = 0.004). Aminoglycoside monotherapy was associated with increased mortality, even after adjusting for confounders (adjusted RR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.85; P = 0.037), consistent across multiple sites of infection. </jats:p