AMBER: A Semi-Numerical Abundance Matching Box for the Epoch of Reionization

The Abundance Matching Box for the Epoch of Reionization (AMBER) is a semi-numerical code for modeling the cosmic dawn. The new algorithm is not based on the excursion set formalism, but takes the novel approach of calculating the reionization-redshift field $z_\mathrm{re}(\boldsymbol{x})$ assuming that hydrogen gas encountering higher radiation intensity are photoionized earlier. Redshift values are assigned while matching the abundance of ionized mass according to a given mass-weighted ionization fraction $\bar{x}_\mathrm{i}(z)$. The code has the unique advantage of allowing users to directly specify the reionization history through the redshift midpoint $z_\mathrm{mid}$, duration $\Delta_\mathrm{z}$, and asymmetry $A_\mathrm{z}$ input parameters. The reionization process is further controlled through the minimum halo mass $M_\mathrm{min}$ for galaxy formation and the radiation mean free path $l_\mathrm{mfp}$ for radiative transfer. We implement improved methods for constructing density, velocity, halo, and radiation fields, which are essential components for modeling reionization observables. We compare AMBER with two other semi-numerical methods and find that our code more accurately reproduces the results from radiation-hydrodynamic simulations. The parallelized code is over four orders of magnitude faster than radiative transfer simulations and will efficiently enable large-volume models, full-sky mock observations, and parameter-space studies. AMBER will be made publicly available to facilitate and transform studies of the EoR.Comment: 29 pages, 21 figures, 1 table. Submitted to ApJ. AMBER will be made publicly available when the paper is publishe

Triple and Quadruple Black Holes in the ASTRID Simulation at z∼2z \sim 2

We use the ASTRID cosmological hydrodynamic simulation to investigate the properties and evolution of triple and quadruple Massive Black Hole (MBH) systems at $z = 2-3$. Only a handful of MBH tuple systems have been detected to date. In ASTRID, we find $4\%$ of the $M_{\rm BH}>10^7\,M_\odot$ are in tuples with $\Delta r_{\rm max} < 200\,{\rm kpc}$. The tuple systems span a range of separations with the majority of the observable AGN systems at $\Delta r \sim 50-100$ kpc. They include some of the most massive BHs (up to $10^{10} \,M_\odot$) but with at least one of the components of $M_{\rm BH} \sim 10^7 \,M_\odot$. Tuples' host galaxies are typically massive with $M_* \sim 10^{10-11} \,M_\odot$. We find that $>10\%$ massive halos with $M_{\rm halo} > 10^{13} M_\odot$ host MBH tuples. Following the subsequent interactions between MBHs in tuples, we found that in $\sim 5\%$ of the triplets all three MBHs merge within a Gyr, and $15\%$ go through one merger. As a by-product of the complex multi-galaxy interaction of these systems, we also find that up to $\sim 5\%$ of tuples lead to runaway MBHs. In ASTRID, virtually all of the ultramassive black holes ($>10^{10} \,M_\odot$) have undergone a triple quasar phase while for BHs with $M_{\rm BH} \sim 10^9 \,M_\odot$ this fraction drops to $50\%$.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures; comments welcom

Fly-by galaxy encounters with multiple black holes produce star-forming linear wakes

We look for simulated star-forming linear wakes such as the one recently discovered by van Dokkum et al. (2023) in the cosmological hydrodynamical simulation ASTRID. Amongst the runaway black holes in ASTRID, none are able to produce clear star-forming wakes. Meanwhile, fly-by encounters, typically involving a compact galaxy (with a central black hole) and a star-forming galaxy (with a duo of black holes) reproduce remarkably well many of the key properties (its length and linearity; recent star formation, etc.) of the observed star-forming linear feature. We predict the feature to persist for approximately 100 Myr in such a system and hence constitute a rare event. The feature contains a partly stripped galaxy (with $M_{\rm gal}=10^9 \sim 10^{10}M_\odot$) and a dual BH system ($M_{\rm BH}=10^5 \sim 10^7\,M_\odot$) in its brightest knot. X-ray emission from AGN in the knot should be detectable in such systems. After $100\sim 200\,{\rm Myrs}$ from the first fly-by, the galaxies merge leaving behind a triple black hole system in a (still) actively star-forming early-type remnant of mass $\sim 5\times 10^{10}\,M_\odot$. Follow-up JWST observations may be key for revealing the nature of these linear features by potentially detecting the older stellar populations constituting the bright knot. Confirmation of such detections may therefore help discriminate a fly-by encounter from a massive BH wake to reveal the origin of such features.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, comments welcom

Orbital and Radiative Properties of Wandering Intermediate-Mass Black Holes in the ASTRID Simulation

Intermediate-Mass Black Holes (IMBHs) of $10^3-10^6 \, M_\odot$ are commonly found at the center of dwarf galaxies. Simulations and observations convincingly show that a sizable population of IMBHs could wander off-center in galaxies. We use the cosmological simulation ASTRID to study the orbital and radiative properties of wandering IMBHs in massive galaxies at $z\sim3$. We find that this population of black holes has large orbital inclinations ($60^\circ\pm22^\circ$) with respect to the principal plane of the host. The eccentricity of their orbits is also significant ($0.6\pm0.2$) and decreases with time. Wandering IMBHs undergo spikes of accretion activity around the pericenter of their orbits, with rates $10^{-3}-10^{-5}$ times the Eddington rate and a median accretion duty cycle of $\sim 12\%$. Their typical spectral energy distribution peaks in the infrared at $\sim 11 \, \mu \rm m$ rest-frame. Assuming a standard value of $10\%$ for the matter-to-energy radiative efficiency, IMBHs reach $2-10$ keV X-ray luminosities $>10^{37} \, \mathrm{erg\,s^{-1}}$ for $\sim10\%$ of the time. This luminosity corresponds to fluxes $>10^{-15} \, \mathrm{erg \, s^{-1} \, cm^{-2}}$ within $10$ Mpc. They could be challenging to detect because of competing emissions from X-ray binaries and the interstellar medium. X-ray luminosities $> 10^{41} \, \mathrm{erg \, s^{-1}}$, in the hyper-luminous X-ray sources (HLXs) regime, are reached by $\sim 7\%$ of the IMBHs. These findings suggest that HLXs are a small subset of the wandering IMBH population, which is characterized by luminosities $10^3-10^4$ times fainter. Dedicated surveys are needed to assess the demographics of this missing population of black holes.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. This is the final version of the manuscript. 9 pages, 7 figure

A vast population of wandering and merging IMBHs at cosmic noon

Massive black holes in the centers of galaxies today must have grown by several orders of magnitude from seed black holes formed at early times. Detecting a population of intermediate mass black holes (IMBHs) can provide constraints on these elusive BH seeds. Here we use the large volume, cosmological hydrodynamical simulation Astrid, which includes IMBH seeds and dynamical friction to investigate the population of IMBH seeds. Dynamical friction is largely inefficient at sinking and merging seed IMBHs at high-z. This leads to an extensive population (several hundred per galaxy) of wandering IMBHs in large halos at z~2. A small fraction of these IMBHs are detectable as HLXs, Hyper Luminous X-ray sources. Importantly, at z ~ 2, IMBHs mergers produce the peak of GW events. We find close to a million GW events in Astrid between z=2-3 involving seed IMBH mergers. These GW events (almost all detectable by LISA) at cosmic noon should provide strong constraints on IMBH seed models and their formation mechanisms. At the center of massive galaxies, where the number of IMBHs can be as high as 10-100, SMBH-IMBH pairs can form. These Intermediate mass ratio inspirals (IMRIs) and extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs), will require the next generation of milli-muHz space-based GW interferometers to be detected. Large populations of IMBHs around massive black holes will probe their environments and MBH causal structure

Massive Black Hole Mergers with Orbital Information: Predictions from the ASTRID Simulation

We examine massive black hole (MBH) mergers and their associated gravitational wave signals from the large-volume cosmological simulation Astrid. Astrid includes galaxy formation and black hole models recently updated with a MBH seed population between $3\times 10^4M_{\odot}/h$ and $3\times 10^5M_{\odot}/h$ and a sub-grid dynamical friction (DF) model to follow the MBH dynamics down to $1.5\;\text{ckpc}/h$. We calculate initial eccentricities of MBH orbits directly from the simulation at kpc-scales, and find orbital eccentricities above $0.7$ for most MBH pairs before the numerical merger. After approximating unresolved evolution on scales below ${\sim 200\,\text{pc}}$, we find that the in-simulation DF on large scales accounts for more than half of the total orbital decay time ($\sim 500\,\text{Myrs}$) due to DF. The binary hardening time is an order of magnitude longer than the DF time, especially for the seed-mass binaries ($M_\text{BH}<2M_\text{seed}$). As a result, only $\lesssim20\%$ of seed MBH pairs merge at $z>3$ after considering both unresolved DF evolution and binary hardening. These $z>3$ seed-mass mergers are hosted in a biased population of galaxies with the highest stellar masses of $>10^9\,M_\odot$. With the higher initial eccentricity prediction from Astrid, we estimate an expected merger rate of $0.3-0.7$ per year from the $z>3$ MBH population. This is a factor of $\sim 7$ higher than the prediction using the circular orbit assumption. The LISA events are expected at a similar rate, and comprise $\gtrsim 60\%$ seed-seed mergers, $\sim 30\%$ involving only one seed-mass MBH, and $\sim 10\%$ mergers of non-seed MBHs.Comment: 17 pages, 13 Figures; comments are welcom

Deep learning-based algorithm for assessment of knee osteoarthritis severity in radiographs matches performance of radiologists

A fully-automated deep learning algorithm matched performance of radiologists in assessment of knee osteoarthritis severity in radiographs using the Kellgren-Lawrence grading system. To develop an automated deep learning-based algorithm that jointly uses Posterior-Anterior (PA) and Lateral (LAT) views of knee radiographs to assess knee osteoarthritis severity according to the Kellgren-Lawrence grading system. We used a dataset of 9739 exams from 2802 patients from Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST). The dataset was divided into a training set of 2040 patients, a validation set of 259 patients and a test set of 503 patients. A novel deep learning-based method was utilized for assessment of knee OA in two steps: (1) localization of knee joints in the images, (2) classification according to the KL grading system. Our method used both PA and LAT views as the input to the model. The scores generated by the algorithm were compared to the grades provided in the MOST dataset for the entire test set as well as grades provided by 5 radiologists at our institution for a subset of the test set. The model obtained a multi-class accuracy of 71.90% on the entire test set when compared to the ratings provided in the MOST dataset. The quadratic weighted Kappa coefficient for this set was 0.9066. The average quadratic weighted Kappa between all pairs of radiologists from our institution who took a part of study was 0.748. The average quadratic-weighted Kappa between the algorithm and the radiologists at our institution was 0.769. The proposed model performed demonstrated equivalency of KL classification to MSK radiologists, but clearly superior reproducibility. Our model also agreed with radiologists at our institution to the same extent as the radiologists with each other. The algorithm could be used to provide reproducible assessment of knee osteoarthritis severity

PRIYA: A New Suite of Lyman-alpha Forest Simulations for Cosmology

We present the PRIYA suite of cosmological simulations, based on the code and hydrodynamic model of the ASTRID simulation, and designed for cosmological analyses of the Lyman-$\alpha$ forest. Our simulation suite spans a $9$-dimensional parameter space, including $4$ cosmological parameters and $5$ astrophysical/thermal parameters. We have run $48$ low fidelity simulations with $1536^3$ particles in a $120$ Mpc/h box and $3$ high fidelity simulations with $3072^3$ particles in a $120$ Mpc/h box. All our simulations include a full physics model for galaxy formation, including supernova and AGN feedback, and thus also contain a realistic population of DLAs. We advance on earlier simulations suites by larger particle loads, by incorporating new physical models for patchy hydrogen and helium reionization, and by self-consistently incorporating a model for AGN feedback. We show that patchy helium reionization imprints an excess in the 1D flux power spectrum on large scales, which may allow future measurements of helium reionization bubble sizes. Simulation parameters are chosen based on a Latin hypercube design and a Gaussian process is used to interpolate to arbitrary parameter combinations. We build a multi-fidelity emulator for the 1D flux power spectrum and the mean IGM temperature. We show that our final interpolation error is $< 1\%$ and that our simulations produce a flux power spectrum converged at the percent level for $z=5.4$ - $2.2$. Our simulation suite will be used to interpret Lyman-$\alpha$ forest 1D flux power spectra from SDSS and future DESI data releases.Comment: 24 pages, 11 figures, submitted to JCA

Tracking SMBH mergers from kpc to sub-pc scales with AXIS

Pairs of active galactic nuclei (AGN) are observational flags of merger-driven SMBH growth, and represent an observable link between galaxy mergers and gravitational wave (GW) events. Thus, studying these systems across their various evolutionary phases can help quantify the role mergers play in the growth of SMBHs as well as future GW signals expected to be detected by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). At the earliest stage, the system can be classified as a "dual AGN" where the SMBHs are gravitationally unbound and have typical separations <30 kpc, and at the latest stage the system can be classified as a "binary AGN" where the two massive host galaxies have likely been interacting for hundreds of megayears to gigayears. However, detecting and confirming pairs of AGN is non-trivial, and is complicated by the unique characteristics of merger-environments. To date, there are less than 50 X-ray confirmed dual AGN and only 1 strong binary AGN candidate. AXIS will revolutionize the field of dual AGN: the point-spread-function (PSF), field-of-view (FOV), and effective area (Aeff) are expected to result in the detection of hundreds to thousands of new dual AGN across the redshift range 0 < z < 4. The AXIS AGN surveys will result in the first X-ray study that quantifies the frequency of dual AGN as a function of redshift up to z = 3.5.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure