Avaliação do impacto do VIH/SIDA no crescimento económico de Moçambique

Dissertação de Mestrado em Economia do DesenvolvimentoThis study has the general objective of assessing the impact of HIV / AIDS on economic growth. More specifically, the study attempts to measure the impact of HIV / AIDS on Mozambique's economic growth. To achieve this goal, the neoclassical model of economic growth developed by Mahal (2004) is estimated. The dependent variable is economic growth as measured by the real GDP growth rate. The test variable is HIV / AIDS as measured by the number of annual infections among the adult population. The estimation of the model used balanced panel data for the 11 provinces of Mozambique and the period between 2000 and 2010. The other explanatory variables included in the model are malaria, government expenditure in the health sector, human capital and the workforce, all of which have a statistically significant impact on economic growth in the country. The results of the estimation of the fixed effects model indicate that in Mozambique, the HIV / AIDS epidemic has a negative (as expected) effect on economic growth, but is statistically insignificant. On the other hand, the results of the estimation of the random effects model indicate that in Mozambique, the HIV / AIDS epidemic has a positive (contrary to expected) effect on economic growth, but is statistically insignificant. Based on the results presented above, this study concludes that HIV / AIDS has a statistically insignificant impact on Mozambique's economic growth. In real terms, this insignificance is translated by the fact that a variation of 1% of infected people causes, on average, 48.28 million meticais of the real national GDP and 3.84 million meticais per province. This finding suggests that more empirical and diversified studies should be developed to explain the popular negative relationship between HIV / AIDS and economic growth. The negative effect of the epidemic, transmitted by the sign of its coefficient, suggests that the Government of Mozambique should bet on preventive health policies combined with therapeutic policy to reduce the number of deaths among the workforce.(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)Este estudo tem como objectivo geral avaliar o impacto do VIH/SIDA no crescimento económico. Mais especificamente, o estudo tenta medir o impacto do VIH/SIDA no crescimento económico de Moçambique. Para alcançar este objectivo é estimado o modelo neoclássico de crescimento económico desenvolvido por Mahal (2004). A variável dependente é o crescimento económico medido pela taxa de crescimento do PIB real. A variável-teste é o VIH/SIDA medido pelo número de infecções anuais entre a população adulta. A estimação do modelo usou dados de painel equilibrado referentes às 11 províncias de Moçambique e ao período entre 2000 e 2010. As outras variáveis explicativas incluídas no modelo são a malária, despesa do governo no sector da saúde, capital humano e a força de trabalho, todas elas com impacto estatisticamente significante no crescimento económico no país. Os resultados da estimação do modelo de efeitos fixos indicam que em Moçambique, a epidemia do VIH/SIDA tem um efeito negativo (como esperado) sobre o crescimento económico, mas estatisticamente insignificante. Por outro lado, os resultados da estimação do modelo de efeitos aleatórios indicam que em Moçambique, a epidemia do VIH/SIDA tem um efeito positivo (contrariamente ao esperado) sobre o crescimento económico, mas estatisticamente insignificante. Com base nos resultados acima apresentados este estudo conclui que o VIH/SIDA tem um impacto estatisticamente insignificante sobre o crescimento económico de Moçambique. Em termos reais essa insignificância é traduzida pelo facto de a uma variação de 1% de infectados, causar, em média, 48,28 milhões de meticais do PIB real nacional e 3,84 milhões de meticais por província. Esta constatação sugere que mais estudos empíricos e diversificados devem ser desenvolvidos para explicar a badalada relação negativa entre o VIH/SIDA e o crescimento económico. O efeito negativo da epidemia, transmitido pelo sinal do seu coeficiente, sugere que o Governo de Moçambique deve apostar nas políticas de saúde preventivas combinadas com a política terapêutica para reduzir o número de óbitos entre a força de trabalh

Estudo contrastivo sobre aspectos da negação em português e inglês

O presente estudo faz uma análise contrastiva sobre a negação entre os sistemas do Inglês e Português. O estudo descreve comportamentos da negação nas duas línguas, com um enfoque nas diferenças existentes. O estudo faz uma abordagem nas áreas da morfologia e da sintaxe. O estudo é complementado com uma análise de erros. Este análise esta centrada nos aprendentes moçambicanos do inglês como língua estrangeira. O estudo procura mostrar que através da análise contrastiva é possível prever as áreas em que os aprendentes possam experimentar maiores dificuldades, durante o processo de ensino e aprendizagem da língua InglesaThe present study makes a contrastive analysis on the negation between the English and Portuguese systems. The study describes denial behaviors in the two languages, with a focus on existing differences. The study approaches morphology and syntax. The study is complemented with an analysis of errors. This analysis is centered on Mozambican learners of English as a foreign language. The study seeks to show that through the contrastive analysis it is possible to predict the areas in which the learners may experience greater difficulties, during the process of teaching and learning the English language. (TRADUÇÃO NOSSA

Retirement schemes and economic growth in sub-Sahara countries : a panel data analysis

An understanding of the rationale for providing retirement schemes, their principal functions and different methods of financing them is crucial to structuring and implementing sustainable retirement schemes in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The fact is that the structure of economies in this part of the world is very different from that in the developed world, in that an official social net barely exists. In the developed world most countries have some or other a form of provision for retirement for the elderly. They are provided through systems like Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) or other forms, such as pension and provident funds, social grants, etc. However, the provision of social security in a PAYG system entails costs that are transmitted through generations. These costs arise from the methods governments use to finance the benefits promised to individuals while they are economically active. Generally, government finances the expenditure on social security obligations through current taxes (contributions), which are levied from individuals working at present to pay the benefits to retirees. The assumption is that the population and the economy grow at the same rate. However, the reality is quite different and it often happens that revenue from current contributions is not sufficient to finance the required social security expenditure. This is especially the case where the ageing population is not replaced by a corresponding population growth. Nevertheless, in most Sub-Saharan African Countries (SSA) the ageing of the population does not present an immediate problem. Therefore, the social security systems of these countries constitute different problems than those of the developed world. In the majority of SSA countries, social security faces the problem of outdated legislation with no provision for adjustment of cost of living (real replacement rates are very low) and in some other countries the provision of social security has only recently been implemented. Therefore, there is an urgent need to reform retirement programs in SSA countries, but these reforms do not necessarily imply privatisation and should preferably be implemented within existing programs. An example of reform is the introduction of a principal-agent type of management with clear management rules. To accompany this process, these countries should establish institutions for monitoring and law enforcement. At the same time they should promote the development of financial and capital markets as a necessary condition for having sustainable and attractive retirement programs. Factors like underdeveloped financial and capital markets, adverse selection problems Factors like underdeveloped financial and capital markets, adverse selection problems (intensified by low literacy rates (on average less than 54 per cent)), moral hazard and low per capita income, prevent the majority of the populations in SSA countries to find alternative ways of saving for retirement. Moreover, the growing migration of the young population in search of better living conditions has weakened the traditional or safe family social security structures and therefore, worsened the socio-economic conditions of the elderly population, especially in the rural areas. The growing and prosperous informal sector also has to be considered when policymakers rethink social security in the African continent. The need for policymakers in the African continent to rethink current social security structures is fuelled by research results confirming that social security plays an important role in the performance of economies. World Bank reports in 1994 in particular, proposed different ways of managing retirement programs and a three pillars system was suggested. One possibility is a system managed by government (similar to the present PAYG system), the second privately managed (individual accounts) and the third voluntary saving (personal saving through financial institutions, real estates, etc.). However, the debate regarding proposed reforms continues and it seems that the optimal solution is still to be devised. Research indicates that in the case of SSA countries, it is recommended that reforms start within existing systems. There are various reasons for this idea. Firstly, due to the high uncertainty of output, new systems could have far reaching macroeconomic implications. Secondly, microeconomic effects on the demand side of the economy could influence the labour market due to the availability of abundant and cheap labour. Thirdly, bailout politics are abundant in many SSA countries, which may weaken privately managed social security programs (like individual accounts). This study analysed 14 SSA countries using panel data. The results indicate that social security programs positively affect saving in the SADC countries, but in West Africa and the full country sample, savings is affected negatively. These results have important policy implications in that West African countries need to reform their current social security systems in such a way, that they contribute to saving and the development of financial and capital markets. In the SADC countries, however, more emphasis should be placed on the development of financial and capital markets. The study finds adverse results in the growth model. In the pooled model social security crowds-out growth in per capita GDP in West African countries, but it crowds-in growth in per capita GDP in the SADC countries as well as in the full country sample. These results confirm the findings of other studies namely that no conclusive results exist with regard to the effect of social security on the performance of economies. <p.The model results indicate that social security has a positive effect on fertility. Thus, the results contrast the widely accepted claim that social security reduces fertility on the basis that parents tend to rely less on children as a source of income during their retirement if the social net takes care of them. This phenomenon could be caused by the perception that social security in its current format in SSA countries does not have the potential to replace children as a source of income during retirement. Another factor that may influence thisvii result is because of low coverage rates, the preference of many excluded individuals, mainly in the rural areas and informal sector, is still to rely on their children as a source of old age security. Finally, the study concludes that in sub-Saharan African countries policymakers have to pay more attention to institutional arrangements that would accommodate the implementation of a proper social security system. The starting point should be reforms of existing retirement schemes. Reforms should be initiated within the existing schemes, through the introduction of the principal-agent management model with strong regulation and monitoring to ensure sound management principles. The informal sector poses a major challenge and should be included in a social security system also allowing competition from possible providers of social security products to the informal sector. The redesign of retirement schemes should be aimed at regional integration with scale economies to be captured both at country and regional levels. This implies that the number of operators in the industry should also be considered to avoid excessive costs related to marketing and the administration of the funds. Another important conclusion is that retirement reform programs should form part of the overall strategies of poverty alleviation currently being implemented in many sub-Saharan countries.Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2008.EconomicsPhDunrestricte

The Extractive Industry’s impact on Economic Growth in SADC Countries

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries are rich in natural resources and in most of them their extractive industries extract and export natural resources with little industrial processing. This study analyzes the direct and indirect impacts that the extractive industries in the SADC countries have on their economic growth. The study also examines the hypothesis of economic convergence. Its empirical results are based on data from the 11 founding SADC countries covering the period 2004-17. The results show that despite the process of integration, the SADC economies do not converge in terms of per capita incomes. The extractive industries have direct negative impacts on the countries’ economic growth thus providing evidence of a resource curse. Extractive industries in South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia have positive direct impacts on their economic growth. However, in terms of indirect impacts, the extractive industries do not have any impact on GDP because their impact on manufacturing, human capital, public expenditure, economic openness, exchange rate, and inflation is insignificant. The study also shows that GDP, the colonial path followed by these countries, and inflation have a negative but insignificant impact on extractive industries, while manufacturing, government expenditure, and economic openness have positive but insignificant impacts in all SADC countries. Human capital and exchange rate are the only factors that have both significant positive and negative impacts on economic growth, respectively

The Extractive Industry's Impact on Economic Growth in SADC Countries

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries are rich in natural resources and in most of them their extractive industries extract and export natural resources with little industrial processing. This study analyzes the direct and indirect impacts that the extractive industries in the SADC countries have on their economic growth. The study also examines the hypothesis of economic convergence. Its empirical results are based on data from the 11 founding SADC countries covering the period 2004-17. The results show that despite the process of integration, the SADC economies do not converge in terms of per capita incomes. The extractive industries have direct negative impacts on the countries' economic growth thus providing evidence of a resource curse. Extractive industries in South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia have positive direct impacts on their economic growth. However, in terms of indirect impacts, the extractive industries do not have any impact on GDP because their impact on manufacturing, human capital, public expenditure, economic openness, exchange rate, and inflation is insignificant. The study also shows that GDP, the colonial path followed by these countries, and inflation have a negative but insignificant impact on extractive industries, while manufacturing, government expenditure, and economic openness have positive but insignificant impacts in all SADC countries. Human capital and exchange rate are the only factors that have both significant positive and negative impacts on economic growth, respectively

The impact of retirement benefits on consumption and saving in South Africa

In this paper we empirically analyse the impact of retirement benefits on consumption and personal saving in South Africa using the Feldstein 1974 specification and procedure. By using a basic extended Ando-Modigliani life cycle model we show that the introduction of retirement programs crowds out discretionary household saving and consumption of contributors to such programs. There against, benefits paid by these programs contribute positively to consumption with a concomitant decline in the national pool of savings. However, taxes on retirement benefits affect the discounted value thereof and any change in such tax policy would therefore affect the saving behaviour of contributors in the opposite direction of the tax policy. We use time series data on consumption per capita, disposable labour-income per capita and pension and benefit payments from provident funds both public and privately managed. Using OLS, we find that estimates of retirement benefits are robust when regressed with the per capita government deficit and per capita durable consumption. The estimates are also stable when regressed with the full Barro specification (which includes the per capita government deficit, per capita durable consumption expenditure and the product of unemployment and per capita disposable income)

Impact of tax induced retirement benefit schemes on consumption and saving in South Africa

This article empirically analyses the impact that tax induced retirement benefits (pension payouts) have on contractual saving and consumption behaviour in South Africa. By using a basic extended Ando-Modigliani life cycle model it is shown that pension payouts accumulated through deductible contributions to retirement schemes contribute towards increased levels of consumption expenditure with the crowding out of discretionary household saving. The results also suggest that the taxing of retirement benefits under the current tax structure may discourage individuals to save through retirement schemes and instead encourages increased levels of current consumption expenditure. The econometric technique used is the Engle-Granger (1987) method of estimation. Estimates of the impact of retirement benefits on consumption expenditure are robust also when regressed on per capita government deficit ratios and unemployment. Thus, the tax treatment of retirement schemes in South Africa may have adverse effects on saving largely influenced by the discounted value of retirement benefits