Automating Valuations for Real-Estate

As GeoPhy is developing its business model and looking into the future of automated valu- ation models (AVM), this project delivers a proof of concept of a system that automates the training, maintaining, and delivery of machine learning models for automated valuations. In order to achieve this goal, the situation and problem were first analysed. This resulted in an outline of the desired product and requirements in the form of a MoSCoW analysis. An important goal for this project was to incorporate streams of data from a stream processing platform (Apache Kafka) into a service that would train and update models automatically. The second goal for this project was to keep track of the changes in the data in order to detect significant changes in distribution (concept drift) of the target prediction value.These subjects were studied in literature, reviewing existing and upcoming valuation prac- tices in real-estate, steps needed to perform machine learning tasks, architecture to support big data processing, and concept drift. This resulted in a design made up of four different components: An ETL and data processing component, a modelling component, a Kafka con- nector, and a client-facing API. An important part to ensure efficiency and scalability of the system is the implementation of concept drift: models are only retrained when the distribu- tion of the target training value has changed significantly.These components use storage in the form of a Postgres database, disk storage and Elastic Search logs. The logs (on model performance and concept drift usage) can be interpreted through a Grafana dashboard, which is editable through its own GUI.Finally, to test the success of the project, a testing plan was set up and the code was reviewed by an external group (SIG). The code achieved all the testing milestones and received a 4.5/5 in a mid-development review on maintainability. With this project, the concept of automated valuation models inside GeoPhy’s new architecture has been tested and proved and the project is ready to be further developed and used in practice

A Comparison of Spatial–Temporal Scale Between Multiscalar Drought Indices in the South Central Region of Vietnam

Drought indicators are of critical importance in characterization and forecasting. The use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has increasingly become the main tool for drought analysis; however, the index lacks hydrological information useful as a proxy for other types of droughts. This study aims at evaluating the SPI against the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in the South Central Region of Vietnam. The indices were calculated using monthly rainfall and temperature data measurements from 30 rainfall and 13 temperature stations, during the period from 1977 to 2014. The study focuses on the spatial-temporal variations of drought events and therefore an area of 1680 grid cells of 4x4 km was selected. Inverse distance weighting was used to interpolate grid rainfall and temperature prior to drought indices estimating at multiple time scales (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Drought severity was classified from gridded SPIs and SPEIs using a Non-Contiguous Drought Area (NCDA) approach. The result indicated that drought characteristics using the SPEI and NCDA can capture better historical drought conditions than that using the SPI and NCDA. This suggests an important role of temperature factor in the degree of drought severity. The analysis of spatial-temporal drought on the SPEI showed that the occurrence of moderate droughts in the study area was 1-2 years, and the highest percentage of drought in the area was observed in the summer-autumn season at all SPEI time scales. The results of this study may extend our understanding of natural drought mechanisms.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Water Resource

Socio-hydrological approach for farmer adaptability to hydrological changes: a case study in salinity-controlled areas of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is an example of a complex dynamic socio-hydrological system in which societies and hydrology interact and co-evolve. The dominant engineering approach in the VMD has enhanced the dynamics of society and hydrology. This study looks at the implications of socio-hydrological dynamics in the coastal VMD where saline water is controlled by various infrastructures. In the first phase, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to explore socio-hydrological dynamics in the study area. The results show divergence in livelihood strategies inside the freshwater-projected area, shaping a heterogeneous agricultural landscape of fresh- and brackish-water livelihoods manifested by four socio-hydrological groups. Next, the Motivation and Ability (MOTA) framework and household surveys were used to assess the adaptability in the agricultural development pathway advocated by the freshwater policy. The result revealed differentiations among these socio-hydrological groups. The findings suggest other practices may be required to help the area navigate towards future adaptations to socio-hydrological changes.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Policy Analysi

Sparsentan in patients with IgA nephropathy: a prespecified interim analysis from a randomised, double-blind, active-controlled clinical trial

Background: Sparsentan is a novel, non-immunosuppressive, single-molecule, dual endothelin and angiotensin receptor antagonist being examined in an ongoing phase 3 trial in adults with IgA nephropathy. We report the prespecified interim analysis of the primary proteinuria efficacy endpoint, and safety. Methods: PROTECT is an international, randomised, double-blind, active-controlled study, being conducted in 134 clinical practice sites in 18 countries. The study examines sparsentan versus irbesartan in adults (aged ≥18 years) with biopsy-proven IgA nephropathy and proteinuria of 1·0 g/day or higher despite maximised renin-angiotensin system inhibitor treatment for at least 12 weeks. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive sparsentan 400 mg once daily or irbesartan 300 mg once daily, stratified by estimated glomerular filtration rate at screening (30 to 1·75 g/day). The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline to week 36 in urine protein-creatinine ratio based on a 24-h urine sample, assessed using mixed model repeated measures. Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were safety endpoints. All endpoints were examined in all participants who received at least one dose of randomised treatment. The study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03762850. Findings: Between Dec 20, 2018, and May 26, 2021, 404 participants were randomly assigned to sparsentan (n=202) or irbesartan (n=202) and received treatment. At week 36, the geometric least squares mean percent change from baseline in urine protein-creatinine ratio was statistically significantly greater in the sparsentan group (-49·8%) than the irbesartan group (-15·1%), resulting in a between-group relative reduction of 41% (least squares mean ratio=0·59; 95% CI 0·51-0·69; p<0·0001). TEAEs with sparsentan were similar to irbesartan. There were no cases of severe oedema, heart failure, hepatotoxicity, or oedema-related discontinuations. Bodyweight changes from baseline were not different between the sparsentan and irbesartan groups. Interpretation: Once-daily treatment with sparsentan produced meaningful reduction in proteinuria compared with irbesartan in adults with IgA nephropathy. Safety of sparsentan was similar to irbesartan. Future analyses after completion of the 2-year double-blind period will show whether these beneficial effects translate into a long-term nephroprotective potential of sparsentan. Funding: Travere Therapeutics