Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting

Background In temperate and subtropical climates, respiratory diseases exhibit seasonal peaks in winter. In the tropics, with no winter, peak timings are irregular. Methods To obtain a detailed picture of influenza-like illness (ILI) patterns in the tropics, we established an mHealth study in community clinics in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During 2009-2015, clinics reported daily case numbers via SMS, with a subset performing molecular diagnostics for influenza virus. This real-time epidemiology network absorbs 6000 ILI reports annually, one or two orders of magnitude more than typical surveillance systems. A real-time online ILI indicator was developed to inform clinicians of the daily ILI activity in HCMC. Results From August 2009 to December 2015, 63 clinics were enrolled and 36 920 SMS reports were received, covering approximately 1.7M outpatient visits. Approximately 10.6% of outpatients met the ILI case definition. ILI activity in HCMC exhibited strong nonannual dynamics with a dominant periodicity of 206 days. This was confirmed by time series decomposition, stepwise regression, and a forecasting exercise showing that median forecasting errors are 30%‐40% lower when using a 206‐day cycle. In ILI patients from whom nasopharyngeal swabs were taken, 31.2% were positive for influenza. There was no correlation between the ILI time series and the time series of influenza, influenza A, or influenza B (all P &gt; 0.15). Conclusion This suggests, for the first time, that a nonannual cycle may be an essential driver of respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics. An immunological interference hypothesis is discussed as a potential underlying mechanism.</p

Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting

Background In temperate and subtropical climates, respiratory diseases exhibit seasonal peaks in winter. In the tropics, with no winter, peak timings are irregular. Methods To obtain a detailed picture of influenza-like illness (ILI) patterns in the tropics, we established an mHealth study in community clinics in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During 2009-2015, clinics reported daily case numbers via SMS, with a subset performing molecular diagnostics for influenza virus. This real-time epidemiology network absorbs 6000 ILI reports annually, one or two orders of magnitude more than typical surveillance systems. A real-time online ILI indicator was developed to inform clinicians of the daily ILI activity in HCMC. Results From August 2009 to December 2015, 63 clinics were enrolled and 36 920 SMS reports were received, covering approximately 1.7M outpatient visits. Approximately 10.6% of outpatients met the ILI case definition. ILI activity in HCMC exhibited strong nonannual dynamics with a dominant periodicity of 206 days. This was confirmed by time series decomposition, stepwise regression, and a forecasting exercise showing that median forecasting errors are 30%‐40% lower when using a 206‐day cycle. In ILI patients from whom nasopharyngeal swabs were taken, 31.2% were positive for influenza. There was no correlation between the ILI time series and the time series of influenza, influenza A, or influenza B (all P > 0.15). Conclusion This suggests, for the first time, that a nonannual cycle may be an essential driver of respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics. An immunological interference hypothesis is discussed as a potential underlying mechanism.</p

Evaluation of the Luminex xTAG Respiratory Viral Panel FAST v2 assay for detection of multiple respiratory viral pathogens in nasal and throat swabs in Vietnam [version 1; referees: 2 approved]

Background: Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are among the leading causes of hospitalization in children ≤5 years old. Rapid diagnostics of viral pathogens is essential to avoid unnecessary antibiotic treatment, thereby slowing down antibiotic-resistance. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of the Luminex xTAG Respiratory Viral Panel FAST v2 against viral specific PCR as reference assays for ARI in Vietnam. Methods: Four hundred and forty two nose and throat swabs were collected in viral transport medium, and were tested with Luminex xTAG Respiratory Viral Panel FAST v2. Multiplex RT-PCR and single RT-PCR were used as references. Results: Overall, viral pathogens were detected in a total count of 270/294 (91.8%, 95% CI 88.1-94.7) by the Luminex among reference assays, whilst 112/6336 (1.8%, 95% CI, 1.4-2.1) of pathogens were detected by the Luminex, but not by reference assays. Frequency of pathogens detected by Luminex and reference assays was 379 and 292, respectively. The diagnostic yield was 66.7% (295/442, 95%CI 62.1-71.1%) for the Luminex assay and 54.1% (239/442, 95% CI, 49.3-58.8%) for reference assays. The Luminex kit had higher yields for all viruses except influenza B virus, respiratory syncytial virus, and human bocavirus. High agreements between both methods [mean (range): 0.91 (0.83-1.00)] were found for 10/15 viral agents. Conclusions: The Luminex assay is a high throughput multiplex platform for rapid detection of common viral pathogens causing ARI. Although the current high cost may prevent Luminex assays from being widely used, especially in limited resource settings where ARI are felt most, its introduction in clinical diagnostics may help reduce unnecessary use of antibiotic prescription