Why are decisions for oil and gas projects not always made the way they 'should' be?

Published online 28 May 2018The outcomes of many business decisions do not live up to expectations or possibilities. A literature review of neuroscience and psychological factors that affect decision making has been undertaken, highlighting many reasons why it is hard for people to be good decision makers, particularly in complex and uncertain situations such as oil and gas projects. One way to diminish the impact of these human factors is to use the structured methodology and tools of Decision Analysis, which have been developed and used over 50 years, for making good decisions. Interviews with senior personnel from oil and gas operating companies, followed up by a larger-scale survey, were conducted to determine whether or how Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are used and why they are used in particular ways. The results showed that Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are not used as often as the participants think they should be; some 90% of respondents believed that they should be used for key project decisions, but only ~50% said that they are used. Six propositions were tested for why Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are not used more, and the following three were deemed to be supported: • Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are not well understood. • There is reliance on experience and judgment for decision-making. • Projects are schedule-driven. Further research is proposed to determine the underlying causes, and tackle those, with the aim being to improve business outcomes by determining how to influence decision makers to use Decision Analysis and Decision Quality more effectively.David Newman, Steve Begg and Matthew Wels

Scaling in Small-World Resistor Networks

We study the effective resistance of small-world resistor networks. Utilizing recent analytic results for the propagator of the Edwards-Wilkinson process on small-world networks, we obtain the asymptotic behavior of the disorder-averaged two-point resistance in the large system-size limit. We find that the small-world structure suppresses large network resistances: both the average resistance and its standard deviation approaches a finite value in the large system-size limit for any non-zero density of random links. We also consider a scenario where the link conductance decays as a power of the length of the random links, $l^{-\alpha}$. In this case we find that the average effective system resistance diverges for any non-zero value of $\alpha$.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figure

Further Evidence for Intrinsic Redshifts in Normal Spiral Galaxies

Evidence from galaxy absolute magnitudes, linear diameters, and HyperLeda images is presented which strongly supports the interpretation that some normal spiral galaxies can contain large non-cosmological (intrinsic) redshifts in excess of 5000 km s-1.Comment: 17 pages, Astrophysics&Space Science - Accepted for publicatio

Assessing the inter- and intra-animal variability of in vivo OsteoProbe skeletal measures in untreated dogs

AbstractThe OsteoProbe is a second-generation reference point indentation (RPI) device without a reference probe that is designed to simplify RPI testing for clinical use. Successful clinical implementation of the OsteoProbe would benefit from a better understanding of how its output, bone material strength index (BMSi), relates to the material properties of bone and under what conditions it reliably correlates with fracture risk. Large animal models have the potential to help fill this knowledge gap, as cadaveric studies are retrospective and limited by incomplete patient histories (including the potential use of bone matrix altering drugs such as bisphosphonates). The goal of this study was to assess the intra and inter-animal variability of OsteoProbe measures in untreated beagle dogs (n=12), and to evaluate this variability in comparison to traditional mechanical testing. OsteoProbe measurements were performed in vivo on the left tibia of each dog and repeated 6months later on the day of sacrifice. Within-animal variation of BMSi (CV of 5–10 indents) averaged 8.9 and 9.0% at the first and second timepoints, respectively. In contrast, inter-animal variation of BMSi increased from 5.3% to 9.1%. The group variation of BMSi was on par with that of traditional 3-point mechanical testing; inter-animal variation was 10% for ultimate force, 13% for stiffness, and 12% for total work as measured on the femur. There was no significant change in mean BMSi after 6months, but the individual change with time across the 12 dogs was highly variable, ranging from −12.4% to +21.7% (mean 1.6%, SD 10.6%). No significant correlations were found between in vivo tibia BMSi and femur mechanical properties measured by ex vivo 3-pt bending, but this may be a limitation of sample size or the tests being performed on different bones. No relationship was found between BMSi and tissue mineral density, but a strong positive correlation was found between BMSi and tibia cortical thickness (ρ=0.706, p=0.010). This report shows that while the OsteoProbe device has inter-individual variability quite similar to that of traditional mechanical testing, the longitudinal changes show high levels of heterogeneity across subjects. We further highlight the need for standardization in post-testing data processing and further study of the relationships between OsteoProbe and traditional mechanical testing

Metastable States in Spin Glasses and Disordered Ferromagnets

We study analytically M-spin-flip stable states in disordered short-ranged Ising models (spin glasses and ferromagnets) in all dimensions and for all M. Our approach is primarily dynamical and is based on the convergence of a zero-temperature dynamical process with flips of lattice animals up to size M and starting from a deep quench, to a metastable limit. The results (rigorous and nonrigorous, in infinite and finite volumes) concern many aspects of metastable states: their numbers, basins of attraction, energy densities, overlaps, remanent magnetizations and relations to thermodynamic states. For example, we show that their overlap distribution is a delta-function at zero. We also define a dynamics for M=infinity, which provides a potential tool for investigating ground state structure.Comment: 34 pages (LaTeX); to appear in Physical Review

A roadmap to reduce information inequities in disability with digital health and natural language processing

People with disabilities disproportionately experience negative health outcomes. Purposeful analysis of information on all aspects of the experience of disability across individuals and populations can guide interventions to reduce health inequities in care and outcomes. Such an analysis requires more holistic information on individual function, precursors and predictors, and environmental and personal factors than is systematically collected in current practice. We identify 3 key information barriers to more equitable information: (1) a lack of information on contextual factors that affect a person’s experience of function; (2) underemphasis of the patient’s voice, perspective, and goals in the electronic health record; and (3) a lack of standardized locations in the electronic health record to record observations of function and context. Through analysis of rehabilitation data, we have identified ways to mitigate these barriers through the development of digital health technologies to better capture and analyze information about the experience of function. We propose 3 directions for future research on using digital health technologies, particularly natural language processing (NLP), to facilitate capturing a more holistic picture of a patient’s unique experience: (1) analyzing existing information on function in free text documentation; (2) developing new NLP-driven methods to collect information on contextual factors; and (3) collecting and analyzing patient-reported descriptions of personal perceptions and goals. Multidisciplinary collaboration between rehabilitation experts and data scientists to advance these research directions will yield practical technologies to help reduce inequities and improve care for all populations

Percolation model for structural phase transitions in Li1−x_{1-x}Hx_xIO3_3 mixed crystals

A percolation model is proposed to explain the structural phase transitions found in Li$_{1-x}$H$_x$IO$_3$ mixed crystals as a function of the concentration parameter $x$. The percolation thresholds are obtained from Monte Carlo simulations on the specific lattices occupied by lithium atoms and hydrogen bonds. The theoretical results strongly suggest that percolating lithium vacancies and hydrogen bonds are indeed responsible for the solid solution observed in the experimental range $0.22 < x < 0.36$.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Theoretical approach and impact of correlations on the critical packet generation rate in traffic dynamics on complex networks

Using the formalism of the biased random walk in random uncorrelated networks with arbitrary degree distributions, we develop theoretical approach to the critical packet generation rate in traffic based on routing strategy with local information. We explain microscopic origins of the transition from the flow to the jammed phase and discuss how the node neighbourhood topology affects the transport capacity in uncorrelated and correlated networks.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

The Gompertz-Pareto Income Distribution

This work analyzes the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD) of personal income, formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the economically less favorable part of the population of a country, and the Pareto power law, which describes its tiny richest part. Equations for the Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient and the percentage share of the Gompertzian part relative to the total income are all written in this distribution. We show that only three parameters, determined by linear data fitting, are required for its complete characterization. Consistency checks are carried out using income data of Brazil from 1981 to 2007 and they lead to the conclusion that the GPD is consistent and provides a coherent and simple analytical tool to describe personal income distribution data.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, LaTeX. Accepted for publication in "Physica A

Demagnetization via Nucleation of the Nonequilibrium Metastable Phase in a Model of Disorder

We study both analytically and numerically metastability and nucleation in a two-dimensional nonequilibrium Ising ferromagnet. Canonical equilibrium is dynamically impeded by a weak random perturbation which models homogeneous disorder of undetermined source. We present a simple theoretical description, in perfect agreement with Monte Carlo simulations, assuming that the decay of the nonequilibrium metastable state is due, as in equilibrium, to the competition between the surface and the bulk. This suggests one to accept a nonequilibrium "free-energy" at a mesoscopic/cluster level, and it ensues a nonequilibrium "surface tension" with some peculiar low-T behavior. We illustrate the occurrence of intriguing nonequilibrium phenomena, including: (i) Noise-enhanced stabilization of nonequilibrium metastable states; (ii) reentrance of the limit of metastability under strong nonequilibrium conditions; and (iii) resonant propagation of domain walls. The cooperative behavior of our system may also be understood in terms of a Langevin equation with additive and multiplicative noises. We also studied metastability in the case of open boundaries as it may correspond to a magnetic nanoparticle. We then observe burst-like relaxation at low T, triggered by the additional surface randomness, with scale-free avalanches which closely resemble the type of relaxation reported for many complex systems. We show that this results from the superposition of many demagnetization events, each with a well- defined scale which is determined by the curvature of the domain wall at which it originates. This is an example of (apparent) scale invariance in a nonequilibrium setting which is not to be associated with any familiar kind of criticality.Comment: 26 pages, 22 figure