Effects of sea temperature and stratification changes on seabird breeding success

As apex predators in marine ecosystems, seabirds may primarily experience climate change impacts indirectly, via changes to their food webs. Observed seabird population declines have been linked to climate-driven oceanographic and food web changes. However, relationships have often been derived from relatively few colonies and consider only sea surface temperature (SST), so important drivers, and spatial variation in drivers, could remain undetected. Further, explicit climate change projections have rarely been made, so longer-term risks remain unclear. Here, we use tracking data to estimate foraging areas for eleven black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) colonies in the UK and Ireland, thus reducing reliance on single colonies and allowing calculation of colony-specific oceanographic conditions. We use mixed models to consider how SST, the potential energy anomaly (indicating density stratification strength) and the timing of seasonal stratification influence kittiwake productivity. Across all colonies, higher breeding success was associated with weaker stratification before breeding and lower SSTs during the breeding season. Eight colonies with sufficient data were modelled individually: higher productivity was associated with later stratification at three colonies, weaker stratification at two, and lower SSTs at one, whilst two colonies showed no significant relationships. Hence, key drivers of productivity varied among colonies. Climate change projections, made using fitted models, indicated that breeding success could decline by 21 – 43% between 1961-90 and 2070-99. Climate change therefore poses a longer-term threat to kittiwakes, but as this will be mediated via availability of key prey species, other marine apex predators could also face similar threats

Quantitative predictions on auxin-induced polar distribution of PIN proteins during vein formation in leaves

The dynamic patterning of the plant hormone auxin and its efflux facilitator the PIN protein are the key regulator for the spatial and temporal organization of plant development. In particular auxin induces the polar localization of its own efflux facilitator. Due to this positive feedback auxin flow is directed and patterns of auxin and PIN arise. During the earliest stage of vein initiation in leaves auxin accumulates in a single cell in a rim of epidermal cells from which it flows into the ground meristem tissue of the leaf blade. There the localized auxin supply yields the successive polarization of PIN distribution along a strand of cells. We model the auxin and PIN dynamics within cells with a minimal canalization model. Solving the model analytically we uncover an excitable polarization front that triggers a polar distribution of PIN proteins in cells. As polarization fronts may extend to opposing directions from their initiation site we suggest a possible resolution to the puzzling occurrence of bipolar cells, such we offer an explanation for the development of closed, looped veins. Employing non-linear analysis we identify the role of the contributing microscopic processes during polarization. Furthermore, we deduce quantitative predictions on polarization fronts establishing a route to determine the up to now largely unknown kinetic rates of auxin and PIN dynamics.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, supplemental information included, accepted for publication in Eur. Phys. J.

Vague heuristics

Even when they are defined with precision, one can often read and hear judgments about the vagueness of heuristics in debates about heuristic reasoning. This opinion is not just frequent but also quite reasonable. In fact, during the 1990s, there was a certain controversy concerning this topic that confronted two of the leading groups in the field of heuristic reasoning research, each of whom held very different perspectives. In the present text, we will focus on two of the papers published in Psychological Review, wherein the arguments of each of these groups were presented:

Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy

We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude, with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Observation of a Narrow Resonance of Mass 2.46 GeV/c^2 Decaying to D_s^*+ pi^0 and Confirmation of the D_sJ^* (2317) State

Using 13.5 inverse fb of e+e- annihilation data collected with the CLEO II detector we have observed a narrow resonance in the Ds*+pi0 final state, with a mass near 2.46 GeV. The search for such a state was motivated by the recent discovery by the BaBar Collaboration of a narrow state at 2.32 GeV, the DsJ*(2317)+ that decays to Ds+pi0. Reconstructing the Ds+pi0 and Ds*+pi0 final states in CLEO data, we observe peaks in both of the corresponding reconstructed mass difference distributions, dM(Dspi0)=M(Dspi0)-M(Ds) and dM(Ds*pi0)=M(Ds*pi0)-M(Ds*), both of them at values near 350 MeV. We interpret these peaks as signatures of two distinct states, the DsJ*(2317)+ plus a new state, designated as the DsJ(2463)+. Because of the similar dM values, each of these states represents a source of background for the other if photons are lost, ignored or added. A quantitative accounting of these reflections confirms that both states exist. We have measured the mean mass differences = 350.0 +/- 1.2 [stat] +/- 1.0 [syst] MeV for the DsJ*(2317) state, and = 351.2 +/- 1.7 [stat] +/- 1.0 [syst] MeV for the new DsJ(2463)+ state. We have also searched, but find no evidence, for decays of the two states via the channels Ds*+gamma, Ds+gamma, and Ds+pi+pi-. The observations of the two states at 2.32 and 2.46 GeV, in the Ds+pi0 and Ds*+pi0 decay channels respectively, are consistent with their interpretations as (c anti-strange) mesons with orbital angular momentum L=1, and spin-parities of 0+ and 1+.Comment: 16 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, version to be published in Physical Review D; minor modifications and fixes to typographical errors, plus an added section on production properties. The main results are unchanged; they supersede those reported in hep-ex/030501

Measurement of the Charge Asymmetry in B→K∗(892)±π∓B\to K^* (892)^{\pm}\pi^{\mp}

We report on a search for a CP-violating asymmetry in the charmless hadronic decay B -> K*(892)+- pi-+, using 9.12 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity produced at \sqrt{s}=10.58 GeV and collected with the CLEO detector. We find A_{CP}(B -> K*(892)+- pi-+) = 0.26+0.33-0.34(stat.)+0.10-0.08(syst.), giving an allowed interval of [-0.31,0.78] at the 90% confidence level.Comment: 7 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR

Study of the q^2-Dependence of B --> pi ell nu and B --> rho(omega)ell nu Decay and Extraction of |V_ub|

We report on determinations of |Vub| resulting from studies of the branching fraction and q^2 distributions in exclusive semileptonic B decays that proceed via the b->u transition. Our data set consists of the 9.7x10^6 BBbar meson pairs collected at the Y(4S) resonance with the CLEO II detector. We measure B(B0 -> pi- l+ nu) = (1.33 +- 0.18 +- 0.11 +- 0.01 +- 0.07)x10^{-4} and B(B0 -> rho- l+ nu) = (2.17 +- 0.34 +0.47/-0.54 +- 0.41 +- 0.01)x10^{-4}, where the errors are statistical, experimental systematic, systematic due to residual form-factor uncertainties in the signal, and systematic due to residual form-factor uncertainties in the cross-feed modes, respectively. We also find B(B+ -> eta l+ nu) = (0.84 +- 0.31 +- 0.16 +- 0.09)x10^{-4}, consistent with what is expected from the B -> pi l nu mode and quark model symmetries. We extract |Vub| using Light-Cone Sum Rules (LCSR) for 0<= q^2<16 GeV^2 and Lattice QCD (LQCD) for 16 GeV^2 <= q^2 < q^2_max. Combining both intervals yields |Vub| = (3.24 +- 0.22 +- 0.13 +0.55/-0.39 +- 0.09)x10^{-3}$ for pi l nu, and |Vub| = (3.00 +- 0.21 +0.29/-0.35 +0.49/-0.38 +-0.28)x10^{-3} for rho l nu, where the errors are statistical, experimental systematic, theoretical, and signal form-factor shape, respectively. Our combined value from both decay modes is |Vub| = (3.17 +- 0.17 +0.16/-0.17 +0.53/-0.39 +-0.03)x10^{-3}.Comment: 45 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR

Search for CP Violation in D^0--> K_S^0 pi^+pi^-

We report on a search for CP violation in the decay of D0 and D0B to Kshort pi+pi-. The data come from an integrated luminosity of 9.0 1/fb of e+e- collisions at sqrt(s) ~ 10 GeV recorded with the CLEO II.V detector. The resonance substructure of this decay is well described by ten quasi-two-body decay channels (K*-pi+, K*0(1430)-pi+, K*2(1430)-pi+, K*(1680)-pi+, Kshort rho, Kshort omega, Kshort f0(980), Kshort f2(1270), Kshort f0(1370), and the ``wrong sign'' K*+ pi-) plus a small non-resonant component. We observe no evidence for CP violation in the amplitudes and phases that describe the decay D0 to K_S^0 pi+pi-.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, also available at http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/, submitted to PR

Measurement of Lepton Momentum Moments in the Decay bar{B} \to X \ell \bar{\nu} and Determination of Heavy Quark Expansion Parameters and |V_cb|

We measure the primary lepton momentum spectrum in B-bar to X l nu decays, for p_l > 1.5 GeV/c in the B rest frame. From this, we calculate various moments of the spectrum. In particular, we find R_0 = [int(E_l>1.7) (dGam/dE_sl)*dE_l] / [int(E_l>1.5) (dGam/dE_sl)*dE_l] = 0.6187 +/- 0.0014_stat +/- 0.0016_sys and R_1 = [int(E_l>1.5) E_l(dGam/dE_sl)*dE_l] / [int(E_l>1.5) (dGam/dE_sl)*dE_l] = (1.7810 +/- 0.0007_stat +/- 0.0009_sys) GeV. We use these moments to determine non-perturbative parameters governing the semileptonic width. In particular, we extract the Heavy Quark Expansion parameters Lambda-bar = (0.39 +/- 0.03_stat +/- 0.06_sys +/- 0.12_th) GeV and lambda_1 = (-0.25 +/- 0.02_stat +/- 0.05_sys +/- 0.14_th) GeV^2. The theoretical constraints used are evaluated through order 1/M_B^3 in the non-perturbative expansion and beta_0*alpha__s^2 in the perturbative expansion. We use these parameters to extract |V_cb| from the world average of the semileptonic width and find |V_cb| = (40.8 +/- 0.5_Gam-sl +/- 0.4_(lambda_1,Lambda-bar)-exp +/- 0.9_th) x 10^-3. In addition, we extract the short range b-quark mass m_b^1S = (4.82 +/- 0.07_exp +/- 0.11_th) GeV/c^2. Finally, we discuss the implications of our measurements for the theoretical understanding of inclusive semileptonic processes.Comment: 21 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR