Political Advertising Saturation in the 2016 Iowa Caucuses

Allocating the optimum amount of campaign resources to advertising is a critical question for political managers. This research presents the case of the 2016 Iowa Caucuses, in which over $46 million of broadcast television advertising was purchased on behalf of 21 Republican and Democratic candidates and run in eight media markets over 9 months. Using Federal Communication Commission (FCC)-derived data from more than 3,700 political advertising contracts, and responses to two waves of surveys among Iowa voters, this research considers the connection between advertising weight (adspend) and political outcomes in a media-saturated campaign. In contrast to some earlier studies, increasing levels of advertising spending did not serve to activate the interest of potential voters: while it was high to begin with, and went higher during the election period, the extra advertising was not associated with additional interest. However, increased advertising did result shifting of allegiances in the crowded Republican Caucus: in markets with heavy advertising, there was more churn in candidate preference. Additionally, overall adspend was correlated modestly with political outcomes: for the most part, high-spending candidates were the most successful in gaining support at the Caucuses

The Effects of Special Mule Deer Buck Regulations on Mule Deer Populations and Harvest

We evaluated the effects of 3 restrictive season types on mule deer population and harvest characteristics in 41 Montana hunting districts (HDs). Using a mixed-effects, before-after-control-impact modeling framework, we analyzed 6 harvest and hunter use response variables, and 4 population response variables. Buck : doe ratios increased by 0.42 bucks:100 does and 0.33 bucks :100 does per year, following changes to a shortened season and limited permits, respectively. We found no significant change in buck : doe ratios in unlimited permit HDs. All restrictive season types resulted in declines in hunter numbers and days. HDs with no restrictions, with limited permits and with unlimited permits also showed a downward annual trend in hunter numbers. In shortened season HDs, a significant loss in hunter numbers was followed by a slow return of hunters back to those HDs. Limited permit HDs had a statistically greater proportion of bucks with ?4 points on at least one antler, a lower number of bucks harvested annually, and a smaller total number of ?4 point bucks harvested than in HDs with no buck restrictions. For those same 3 response variables, unlimited and shortened season HDs were not different than HDs without restrictions. In all three restricted regulation HDs there was an annual increase in the observed spring fawn : adult ratios even though the general trend was for a decreasing fawn : adult ratio of 0.83 fawns:100 adults per year in HDs with no restrictions

Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) Habitat in Central Montana

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat was studied in central Montana primarily on Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. ssp. wyomingensis Beetle and Young) dominated rangeland. The primary objective was to compare shrub and herbaceous parameters within (use, random or non-use) and between seasonal habitats (nest, brood, winter). Two study sites (Musselshell and Golden Valley counties), and 2 years (2004 and 2005) were compared. Nest, brood, and random sites were compared for herbaceous cover, and grass height. Nest, brood, random, winter use and winter non-use sites were evaluated for shrub cover, density, and height. All differences were considered significant at P ≤ 0.05. Sage-grouse nested in areas with greater total shrub cover and height, and taller live and residual grass than was randomly available. No differences were found between brood and paired random sites for any of the herbaceous or shrub parameters measured. Shrub cover and density were greater at winter use sites than non-use sites. Winter use sites had less shrub cover than nest sites. The nest and brood habitat had similar shrub cover, density, and height on the study area. Sage-grouse habitats should be managed to include sagebrush, forbs, and grass. Herbaceous vegetation was more important during nesting and brood rearing than during the winter. Therefore, some portions of grouse habitat may benefit from management for greater herbaceous cover, but never at the sake of less sagebrush. Sagebrush cover from 10 percent to 30 percent was the most consistent component of sage-grouse habita

The Effects of Changes in Elk Archery Regulations on Elk Hunter Effort and Harvest, 2004-2010

We evaluated the effects of changes in elk archery hunting seasons in eastern Montana on hunter numbers, days, and densities and elk harvest. We compared 2 time periods (2004-2007 and 2008-2010) and grouped hunting districts (HDs) into 1 of 4 season types. The 4 season types were limited permits in the Missouri Breaks (7 HDs), limited permits in non-breaks HDs (22 HDs), adjacent HDs were in close proximity to the limited permit HDs that we hypothesized might receive additional hunters displaced from the two more restrictive archery permit areas (22 HDs), and our pseudo-control season type included the rest of the HDs in the state (110 HDs). It appeared, from a statewide perspective, that changing the archery regulations to limited permits in 27 HDs didn’t cause a statistically significant hunter shift to the 22 HDs identified as areas hunters would likely select if restrictions forced them to choose a new area. The only significant changes in hunter numbers and days were decreases in nonresident hunter numbers and days in the Missouri River Breaks HDs. Although the decrease in non-resident use may have had an economic impact in the local area; statewide, there was no change in non-resident use. Pseudo-control HDs showed decreases or no change in harvest response variables. Therefore, the significant harvest increases and/or lack of significant harvest declines in the limited permit areas might be interpreted as a relative success since most of these hunting districts are above population objectives for elk

A Method to Establish Trend Areas that Predict Pronghorn Populations to Guide Management Actions

Trend area flights offer substantial cost and time-savings over total population counts, but trend area data need to be calibrated to total count data before they can be used with confidence in wildlife management decisions. To develop trend areas for pronghorn (Antelopcapra americana) in FWP Administrative Region 5, group location data from total surveys, for the period 1984-2009, were combined with classification information by hunting district (HD) into a GIS. Number of total counts conducted per HD varied from a low of six to a high of 13 and involved classification of between 364 and 8088 antelope. Grids, 5 mi x 5 mi to 12 mi x 12 mi (increasing by 1-mi2 intervals) in size were overlain on the pronghorn locations as potential trend areas. Number of yearling, adult and total bucks, does, fawns and total number by year, were calculated for each grid and cross-referenced with HD census data. The predictive ability of each candidate trend area was estimated and internally validated. We selected grids with the highest internally validated predictive ability to be used as trend areas for each HD in Region 5. Correlation coefficients between trend count data and total count data varied from a low of 0.88 to a high of 0.98. Newly established trend areas varied in size from 64.3 mi2 to 216.6 mi2. The time-savings and reduction in survey costs will allow biologists to fly surveys in each HD annually without sacrificing the ability to predict pronghorn populations accurately

Directly Observed Therapy and Improved Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes in Thailand

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that tuberculosis (TB) patients receive directly observed therapy (DOT). Randomized controlled trials have not consistently shown that this practice improves TB treatment success rates. In Thailand, one of 22 WHO-designated high burden TB countries, patients may have TB treatment observed by a health care worker (HCW), family member, or no one. We studied whether DOT improved TB treatment outcomes in a prospective, observational cohort. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We prospectively collected epidemiologic data about TB patients treated at public and private facilities in four provinces in Thailand and the national infectious diseases hospital from 2004-2006. Public health staff recorded the type of observed therapy that patients received during the first two months of TB treatment. We limited our analysis to pulmonary TB patients never previously treated for TB and not known to have multidrug-resistant TB. We analyzed the proportion of patients still on treatment at the end of two months and with treatment success at the end of treatment according to DOT type. We used propensity score analysis to control for factors associated with DOT and treatment outcome. Of 8,031 patients eligible for analysis, 24% received HCW DOT, 59% family DOT, and 18% self-administered therapy (SAT). Smear-positive TB was diagnosed in 63%, and 21% were HIV-infected. Of patients either on treatment or that defaulted at two months, 1601/1636 (98%) patients that received HCW DOT remained on treatment at two months compared with 1096/1268 (86%) patients that received SAT (adjusted OR [aOR] 3.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4-6.0) and 3782/3987 (95%) patients that received family DOT (aOR 2.1; CI, 1.4-3.1). Of patients that had treatment success or that defaulted at the end of treatment, 1369/1477 (93%) patients that received HCW DOT completed treatment compared with 744/1074 (69%) patients that received SAT (aOR 3.3; CI, 2.4-4.5) and 3130/3529 (89%) patients that received family DOT (aOR 1.5; 1.2-1.9). The benefit of HCW DOT compared with SAT was similar, but smaller, when comparing patients with treatment success to those with death, default, or failure. CONCLUSIONS: In Thailand, two months of DOT was associated with lower odds of default during treatment. The magnitude of benefit was greater for DOT provided by a HCW compared with a family member. Thailand should consider increasing its use of HCW DOT during TB treatment