Lead Poisoning and The Bell Curve

A robust environmental health literature demonstrates that preschool lead exposure can cause neurodevelopmental damage and associated adverse impacts on IQ, education, and behavior. Cognitive psychology research also shows an association between IQ and education and behavior risks, but finds that IQ is largely inherited. The impact of lead exposure was barely acknowledged in a fierce debate over IQ after the 1994 publication of The Bell Curve, but subsequent research has shown that trends in behavior linked to IQ in The Bell Curve have tracked lead exposure trends across decades and around the world. Preschool lead exposure trends continue to predict global crime trends and USA trends in education attainment, mental retardation, and teenage pregnancy. Evidence from temporal analyses and other lead toxicity research suggest a causal relationship between lead exposure and important societal trends. Trends in tooth enamel formed in early childhood also confirm that The Bell Curve reflected birth years of extreme variation in lead exposure, resulting in extreme differences in estimated behavior risks associated with IQ. This evidence also presents a new perspective on cognitive research indicating that IQ is inherited.lead poisoning; IQ; abortion; teen pregnancy; crime; education

Energy efficient housing stimulus that pays for itself

This paper describes an energy efficient housing stimulus strategy that can: (1) quickly provide large-scale job creation; (2) reduce home energy bills by 30% to 50% with associated reductions in emissions and energy assistance spending; (3) stabilize home values and reduce foreclosure inventory; (4) help to eliminate childhood lead poisoning; and (5) implement regulatory reforms that highlight market incentives for cost effective energy efficiency and alternative home energy investments. These benefits, far in excess of costs, can be achieved by combining “lead-safe window replacement” with other weatherization activities and simple regulatory and market reforms. This strategy can help to coordinate American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funding for energy efficiency, the $75 billion Making Home Affordable plan to reduce foreclosures, and the recently announced partnership between the Departments of Energy (DOE) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to streamline weatherization efforts and spur job creation.Energy Efficiency; Cost Benefit Analysis; Housing; Lead Poisoning

Evidence of rational market valuations for home energy efficiency

According to this study, residential real estate markets assign to energy-efficient homes an incremental value that reflects the discounted value of annual fuel savings. The capitalization rate used by homeowners was expected to be 4%-10%, reflecting the range of after-tax mortgage interest rates during the 1990s and resulting in an incremental home value of $10 to around$25 for every $1 reduction in annual fuel bills. Regression analysis of American Housing Survey data confirms this hypothesis for national and metropolitan area samples, attached and detached housing, and detached housing subsamples using a specific fuel type as the main heating fuel.Energy; Housing

More evidence of rational market values for home energy efficiency

The “cost versus value” survey by Remodeling indicates that realtor value estimates for window replacement can be substantially explained by the market value of energy efficiency, as estimated in “Evidence of Rational Market Values for Home Energy Efficiency,” which appeared in the October 1998 issue of The Appraisal Journal.Energy; Housing

Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure

This study shows a very strong association between preschool blood lead and subsequent crime rate trends over several decades in the USA, Britain, Canada, France, Australia, Finland, Italy, West Germany, and New Zealand. The relationship is characterized by best-fit lags (highest R2 and t-value for blood lead) consistent with neurobehavioral damage in the first year of life and the peak age of offending for index crime, burglary, and violent crime. The impact of blood lead is also evident in age-specific arrest and incarceration trends. Regression analysis of average 1985-1994 murder rates across USA cities suggests that murder could be especially associated with more severe cases of childhood lead poisoning.Lead Poisoning, Crime, IQ, Behavior, Violence

How lead exposure relates to temporal changes in IQ, violent crime, and unwed pregnancy

This study compares changes in children’s blood lead levels in the United States with subsequent changes in IQ, based on norm comparisons for the Cognitive Abilities Test (CogAT) given to representative national samples of children in 1984 and 1992. The CogAT norm comparisons indicate shifts in IQ levels consistent with the blood lead to IQ relationship reported by an earlier study and population shifts in average blood lead for children under age six between 1976 and 1991. The CogAT norm comparisons also support studies indicating that the IQ to blood lead slope may increase at lower blood lead levels. Furthermore, long term trends in population exposure to gasoline lead were found to be remarkably consistent with subsequent changes in violent crime and unwed pregnancy. Long term trends in paint and gasoline lead exposure are also strongly associated with subsequent trends in murder rates going back to 1900. The findings on violent crime and unwed pregnancy are consistent with published data describing the relationship between IQ and social behavior. The findings with respect to violent crime are also consistent with studies indicating that children with higher bone lead tend to display more aggressive and delinquent behavior. This analysis demonstrates that widespread exposure to lead is likely to have profound implications for a wide array of socially undesirable outcomes.Lead Exposure, IQ, Violent Crime, Unwed Pregnancy

Monetary benefits of preventing childhood lead poisoning with lead-safe window replacement

Previous estimates of childhood lead poisoning prevention benefits have quantified the present value of some health benefits, but not the costs of lead paint hazard control or the benefits associated with housing and energy markets. Because older housing with lead paint constitutes the main exposure source today in the U.S., we quantify health benefits, costs, market value benefits, energy savings, and net economic benefits of lead-safe window replacement (which includes paint stabilization and other measures). The benefit per resident child from improved lifetime earnings alone is $21,195 in pre-1940 housing and$8,685 in 1940-59 housing (in 2005 dollars). Annual energy savings are $130 to$486 per housing unit, with or without young resident children, with an associated increase in housing market value of $5,900 to$14,300 per housing unit, depending on home size and number of windows replaced. Net benefits are $4,490 to$5,629 for each housing unit built before 1940, and $491 to$1,629 for each unit built from 1940-1959, depending on home size and number of windows replaced. Lead-safe window replacement in all pre-1960 U.S. housing would yield net benefits of at least $67 billion, which does not include many other benefits. These other benefits, which are shown in this paper, include avoided Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, other medical costs of childhood lead exposure, avoided special education, and reduced crime and juvenile delinquency in later life. In addition, such a window replacement effort would reduce peak demand for electricity, carbon emissions from power plants, and associated long-term costs of climate change.Lead Poisoning, IQ, Energy Efficiency, Cost Benefit Analysis, Housing, Climate Change

How lead exposure relates to temporal changes in IQ, violent crime, and unwed pregnancy

This study compares changes in children’s blood lead levels in the United States with subsequent changes in IQ, based on norm comparisons for the Cognitive Abilities Test (CogAT) given to representative national samples of children in 1984 and 1992. The CogAT norm comparisons indicate shifts in IQ levels consistent with the blood lead to IQ relationship reported by an earlier study and population shifts in average blood lead for children under age six between 1976 and 1991. The CogAT norm comparisons also support studies indicating that the IQ to blood lead slope may increase at lower blood lead levels. Furthermore, long term trends in population exposure to gasoline lead were found to be remarkably consistent with subsequent changes in violent crime and unwed pregnancy. Long term trends in paint and gasoline lead exposure are also strongly associated with subsequent trends in murder rates going back to 1900. The findings on violent crime and unwed pregnancy are consistent with published data describing the relationship between IQ and social behavior. The findings with respect to violent crime are also consistent with studies indicating that children with higher bone lead tend to display more aggressive and delinquent behavior. This analysis demonstrates that widespread exposure to lead is likely to have profound implications for a wide array of socially undesirable outcomes

Energy efficient housing stimulus that pays for itself

This paper describes an energy efficient housing stimulus strategy that can: (1) quickly provide large-scale job creation; (2) reduce home energy bills by 30% to 50% with associated reductions in emissions and energy assistance spending; (3) stabilize home values and reduce foreclosure inventory; (4) help to eliminate childhood lead poisoning; and (5) implement regulatory reforms that highlight market incentives for cost effective energy efficiency and alternative home energy investments. These benefits, far in excess of costs, can be achieved by combining “lead-safe window replacement” with other weatherization activities and simple regulatory and market reforms. This strategy can help to coordinate American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funding for energy efficiency, the $75 billion Making Home Affordable plan to reduce foreclosures, and the recently announced partnership between the Departments of Energy (DOE) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to streamline weatherization efforts and spur job creation

Trends in preschool lead exposure, mental retardation, and scholastic achievement: association or causation?

This study shows that 1936-1990 preschool blood lead trends explain 65% of the 1948-2001 variation in USA mental retardation (MR) prevalence, 45% of the 1953-2003 variation in the average Scholastic Achievement Test (SAT) verbal score, and 65% of the 1953-2003 variation in the average SAT math score. These temporal relationships are characterized by best-fit time lags (highest R2 and t-value for blood lead) consistent with lead-induced cognitive damage in the first year of life: A 12-year lag for school-age MR, and a 17-year lag for SAT scores. Recent shifts in age-specific MR prevalence are consistent with recent trends in preschool blood lead. SAT and MR trends by race are consistent with racial differences in how 1960s slum clearance affected childhood exposure to severe lead paint hazards. SAT trends by Hispanic origin are consistent with an especially sharp fall in preschool blood lead in New York City since 1970