Extremism, knowledge, and overconfidence in the covid-19 restriction times

Public response to restriction policy against the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) can polarize into two extremes: one absolutely in favor of restrictions for the sake of human life and health, and other absolutely against the restrictions for the sake of human rights and daily life. This study examines psychological nature of extremism regarding individuals’ self-restraint from social behavior, which was and has been encouraged by the Japanese government as restriction measures, as well as possible measures to mitigate this extremism. We hypothesize that people with more extreme views on self-restraint tend to have less knowledge of this virus, and, nevertheless, tend to be more overconfident in the sense that they falsely believe they understand COVID-19 and the effects of self-restraint. It is also postulated that overconfidence can be reduced by asking them to explain how self-restraint works. To test these hypotheses, we conducted an online experiment on the Japanese adults (n = 500) to measure the extent of their knowledge of COVID-19 and to examine the effect of explanation task on their understanding regarding COVID-19 and extremism. The results indicate that the extreme attitudes were associated with insufficient knowledge about the symptoms, risks, and characteristics of COVID-19. Moreover, their extreme attitudes tended to moderate through this experimental study to an extent that they realized they did not understand COVID-19 including the effects of self-restraint. This suggests that people with extremism may have been overconfident in their own understanding of the COVID-19 restrictions

Implementing Landslide Susceptibility Map at Watershed Scale of Lompobattang Mountain South Sulawesi, Indonesia

This study attempts to predict future landslide occurrence at watershed scale and calculate the potency of landslide for each sub-watershed at Lompobatang Mountain. In order to produce landslide susceptibility map (LSM) using the statistical model on the watershed scale, we identified the landslide with landslide inventories that occurred in the past, and predict the prospective future landslide occurrence by correlating it with landslide causal factors. In this study, six parameters were used namely, distance from fault, slope, aspect, curvature, distance from river and land use. This research proposed the weight of evidence (WoE) model to produce a landslide susceptibility map. Success and predictive rate were also used to evaluate the accuracy by using Area under curve (AUC) of Receiver operating characteristic (ROC). The result is useful for land use planner and decision makers, in order to devise a strategy for disaster mitigation

Microtremormeasurement-based prediction of ground shaking in Kathmandu Valley of Nepal

The Tenth International Symposium on Mitigation of Geo-disasters in Asia Matsue Symposium Place: Shimane Civil Center, Matsue Date: 8 October 201

Stochastic Finite Element Analysis of Root-Reinforcement Effects in Long and Steep Slopes

This article introduces a novel numerical scheme within the finite element method (FEM) to study soil heterogeneity, specifically focusing on the root–soil matrix in fracture treatments. Material properties, such as Young’s modulus of elasticity, cohesion, and the friction angle, are considered as randomly distributed variables. To address the inherent uncertainty associated with these distributions, a Monte Carlo simulation is employed. By incorporating the uncertainties related to material properties, particularly the root component that contributes to soil heterogeneity, this article provides a reliable estimation of the factor of safety, failure surface, and slope deformation, all of which demonstrate a progressive behavior. The probability distribution curve for the factor of safety (FOS) reveals that an increase in the root area ratio (RAR) results in a narrower range and greater certainty in the population mean, indicating reduced material variation. Moreover, as the slope angle increases, the sample mean falls within a wider range of the probability density curve, indicating an enhanced level of material heterogeneity. This heterogeneity amplifies the level of uncertainty when predicting the factor of safety, highlighting the crucial importance of accurate information regarding heterogeneity to enhancing prediction accuracy

Geo-Disaster and Its Mitigation in Nepal

The Tenth International Symposium on Mitigation of Geo-disasters in Asia Matsue Symposium Place: Shimane Civil Center, Matsue Date: 8 October 201

An Analytical Study on the Damage to School Buildings by the 2015 Nepal Earthquake and Damage Level-Based Reconstruction Experience

The 2015 Nepal Earthquake (Mw7.8) affected more than 9000 schools in the country. Damage distribution in the 14 most-affected administrative districts shows that the construction practices were an important determent for the level of damage extended. The use of improper construction materials, lack of construction supervision, and non-compliance with the existing building codes during design and construction probably contributed to severe damage to most of the school buildings. Based on the damage analysis data and experience of the rebuilding process after the 2015 Nepal Earthquake, this paper highlights the steps to be considered during a rebuilding plan for school buildings after an earthquake disaster. Preliminary damage assessment results show that in the most-affected districts, about 86% of schools (locations) were affected by the earthquake and about one million students were out of their schools for a long time. The damage survey data indicate that about 30% of classrooms collapsed, about 13% of classrooms sustained major damage, and about 17% of classrooms sustained minor damage within the most-affected 14 districts. This damage report is largely based on the secondary data provided by the concerned government authorities. Such evidence of loss and damage in earthquake disasters provides an opportunity to learn lessons for future preparedness and to encounter disaster challenges. This work shares an experience on the rebuilding process of damaged schools and classrooms. It is expected that the experience reported in this paper will help in better planning of the seismic safety of school buildings in Nepal as well as in other similar seismically active regions. Most papers related to the 2015 Nepal Earthquake focus on overall building damage, but this paper addresses the issues of school buildings. As a case report, this paper probably lacks scientific originality, but the presentation of the damage data and the rebuilding process are the original work of the authors

Climate responsive and safe earthquake construction: a community building a school

This article outlines environment friendly features, climate responsive features and construction features of a prototype school building constructed using green building technology. The school building has other additional features such as earthquake resistant construction, use of local materials and local technology. The construction process not only establishes community ownership, but also facilitates dissemination of the technology to the communities. Schools are effective media for raising awareness, disseminating technology and up-scaling the innovative approach. The approach is cost effective and sustainable for long-term application of green building technology. Furthermore, this paper emphasizes that such construction technology will be instrumental to build culture of safety in communities and reduce disaster risk

Influence of Localized Rainfall Patterns on Landslide Occurrence—A Case Study of Southern Hiroshima with eXtended Radar Information Network Data during the July 2018 Heavy Rain Disasters

In this study, we use GIS and other analytical platforms to analyze the landslide distribution pattern in the July 2018 heavy rain disasters in the southern part of Hiroshima Prefecture in Japan in conjunction with chronological XRAIN (eXtended Radar Information Network) radar-acquired localized rainfall data in order to better understand the relationship between rainfall characteristics and landslide probability. An analysis of event rainfall from the July 2018 disasters determines that landslide-inducing rainfall started from 8:30 AM on 5 July and continued until 7:30 AM on 7 July, accumulating to up to 368 mm in total precipitation, and that there were two intensity peaks, one around 7:30 PM on 6 July, and another one around 4:30 AM on 7 July. These two events are associated with particularly high landslide activity, which indicates that landslide activation is related to peak-intensity rainfall combined with accumulated continuous precipitation. The XRAIN data were also used together with landslide reports to calculate the intensity–duration (i.e., I-D) rainfall threshold for the area. The mean annual precipitation in the whole study area ranged between 2025 mm and 3030 mm, with an average value of about 2300 mm. The spatial distribution of rainfall throughout the sampled years indicates that rainfall is remarkably localized, with higher values concentrated on elevated areas. However, it was also observed that the maximum precipitation volumes are not so closely related to landslide occurrence, and the highest landslide activity was found in intermediate precipitation class zones instead. Correlating the localization patterns of event precipitation and mean annual precipitation using Pearson’s correlation coefficient, we found an r value of 0.55, which is considered a moderate correlation between the two datasets (i.e., event precipitation and mean annual precipitation)

Knowledge of disaster risk reduction among school students in Nepal

Because of extreme vulnerability to natural disasters, Nepal is considered a disaster hotspot in the world. For a small country with just a little less than 30-million population, the disaster statistics are always frightening. School students of Nepal are also in extreme risk of natural disasters, especially when they are in schools. In this context, a few education programmes for disaster risk reduction (DRR) have already been initiated and the results have also been already documented. However, an evaluation of the real scenario with the help of an independent research is still lacking. Therefore, this research aims to explore benefits of existing education programmes of DRR in Nepal. Altogether, 124 students from 17 districts were interviewed and various questions related to disaster information, disaster knowledge, disaster readiness, disaster awareness, disaster adaptation, and disaster risk perception were asked. Statistical analysis such as histogram analysis, distribution analysis, bivariate correlations, and independent sample t-tests were conducted to examine the relationship between students in disaster education-related programmes and the key DRR issues-related dependent variables. Findings of this independent research confirmed that initiatives taken for disaster education in Nepal are not enough and a major challenge for DRR in a school community for a country like Nepal is implementing methods, especially at the individual level. Likewise, the disaster education should not only be confined within the school students, but it must also be promoted to families and communities, which is very essential to elaborate knowledge of DRR and to contribute to a disaster safe society in the country