National-scale modelling of N leaching in organic and conventional horticultural crop rotations - policy implications

A method is presented to model N leaching in crop rotations on a national scale. Representative crop rotations for different regions and soil types are used in the cross-disciplinary, plant, soil, environment & economics model EU-Rotate_N. By comparing contrasting farming systems (organic and conventional) in the UK, their strengths and weaknesses in delivering environmental and economic sustainability can be assessed. Modelling results show that the annual leaching in different horticultural rotations and UK regions, using median weather, is within the range of 13-88 kg N/ha/year for organic and 54-130 kg N /ha/year for conventional. The weighted annual average figures are 39 kg N/ha/year for organic and 81 kg N/ha/year for conventional, respectively. It is concluded that organic horticultural rotations, with a current share of 6.1% already contribute to lower overall N losses from agriculture. However, on a UK national scale, only a large share of organic land use (e.g. >50%) has a large effect on reducing N losses. Similar reductions are also predicted by substantial cuts in conventional N inputs, giving a policy choice if pollution from agriculture steps up further on the political agenda