Marriage Patterns in the United States

This paper analyzes cohort marriage patterns in the United States in order to determine whether declining rates of first marriage are due to changes in the timing of marriage, the incidence of marriage, or both. Parametric models, which are well-suited to the analysis of censored or truncated data, are fit separately to information on age at first marriage derived from three data sets which were collected independently and at different points in time. Extended versions of the models are also estimated in which the parameters of the model distributions are allowed to depend on social and, economic variables.The results provide evidence that the incidence of first marriage is declining and that there is only a slight tendency for women to delay marriage. In addition, education is the most important correlate of decisions about the timing of first marriage whereas race is the most important correlate of decisions about its incidence.

Welfare Reform and Changes in the Economic Well-Being of Children

Since the implementation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program in late-1996, welfare rolls have declined by more than half. This paper explores whether improvements in the economic well-being of children have accompanied this dramatic reduction in welfare participation. Further, we examine the degree to which the success or failure of welfare reform has been shared equally among families of varying educational background. We analyze data from the March Current Population Surveys over the years 1988 through 2001. Specifically, we link data for families with children who are interviewed in adjacent years and determine whether their economic circumstances either improved or deteriorated. We use two alternative approaches to address this general issue: a variety of regression models and a difference-in-differences methodology. These approaches provide consistent answers. In a bivariate framework TANF is associated with higher incomes; but this association becomes insignificant in the presence of business cycle controls. We also determine that children who were poor at an initial time period benefit differently, depending on their parents' educational attainment level. Poor children with parents who do not have a high school degree are significantly worse off in the TANF era, relative to the era prior to welfare reform, than are their more educated counterparts.

Commitment and the Modern Union: Assessing the Link Between Premarital Cohabitation and Subsequent Marital Stability

In recent years, the incidence of premarital cohabitation has increased dramatically in many countries of Western Europe and in the United States. As cohabitation becomes a more common experience, it is increasingly important to understand the links between cohabitation and other steps in the process of family formation and dissolution. We focus on the relationship between pre- marital cohabitation and subsequent marital stability, and analyze data from the 1981 Women in Sweden survey using a hazards model approach. Our results indicate that women who premaritally cohabit have almost 80 percent higher marital dissolution rates than those who do not cohabit. Women who cohabit for over three years prior to marriage have over 50 percent higher dissolution rates than women who cohabit for shorter durations. Last, cohabitors and non-cohabitors whose marriages have remained intact for eight years appear to have identical dissolution rates after that time. In addition, we provide evidence that strongly suggests a weaker commitment, on the part of those who cohabit premaritally, to the institution of marriage.

The Influence of Nonmarital Childbearing on the Formation of First Marriages

We examine the association between nonmarital childbearing and the subsequent likelihood of first marriage and document a negative association between these variables controlling for a variety of potentially confounding influences in several large survey data sets for the United States. We then subject possible explanations of this finding to empirical test. The analyses performed support the following conclusions: Nonmarital childbearing does not appear to be driven by low expectations of future marriage. Rather, the direction of causation is just the reverse: Nonmarital childbearing tends to be an unexpected and unwanted event that has multiple effects, which on balance are negative, on a woman's subsequent likelihood of first marriage. Further, the upward trend in the proportion of childbearing that occurs outside of marriage may account for one-fourth of the increase in the proportion of women never marrying in the United States over cohorts separated by almost two decades. We do, however, find that nonmarital childbearers are more likely to enter informal cohabitational unions than are their single counterparts who do not bear a child. We find evidence that the negative association between out-of-wedlock childbearing and subsequent marriage is particularly strong among welfare recipients as well as evidence that out-of-wedlock childbearing increases the likelihood that a woman marries her child's biological father. On the other hand, we find no evidence that (a) stigma associated with nonmarital childbearing plays an important role in this process or (b) the demands of children reduce the time that unmarried mothers have to devote to marriage market activities

Gamma-herpesvirus latency requires T cell evasion during episome maintenance.

The gamma-herpesviruses persist as latent episomes in a dynamic lymphocyte pool. Their consequent need to express a viral episome maintenance protein presents a potential immune target. The glycine-alanine repeat of the Epstein-Barr virus episome maintenance protein, EBNA-1, limits EBNA-1 epitope presentation to CD8(+) T lymphocytes (CTLs). However, CTL recognition occurs in vitro, so the significance of such evasion for viral fitness is unclear. We used the murine gamma-herpesvirus-68 (MHV-68) to define the in vivo contribution of cis-acting CTL evasion to host colonisation. Although the ORF73 episome maintenance protein of MHV-68 lacks a glycine-alanine repeat, it was equivalent to EBNA-1 in conferring limited presentation on linked epitopes. This was associated with reduced protein synthesis and reduced protein degradation. We bypassed the cis-acting evasion of ORF73 by using an internal ribosome entry site to express in trans-a CTL target from the same mRNA. This led to a severe, MHC class I-restricted and CTL-dependent reduction in viral latency. Thus, despite MHV-68 encoding at least two trans-acting CTL evasion proteins, cis-acting evasion during episome maintenance was essential for normal host colonisation