Relevance of Interleukin-6 and D-Dimer for Serious Non-AIDS Morbidity and Death among HIV-Positive Adults on Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: Despite effective antiretroviral treatment (ART), HIV-positive individuals are at increased risk of serious non-AIDS conditions (cardiovascular, liver and renal disease, and cancers), perhaps due in part to ongoing inflammation and/or coagulation. To estimate the potential risk reduction in serious non-AIDS conditions or death from any cause that might be achieved with treatments that reduce inflammation and/or coagulation, we examined associations of interleukin-6 (IL-6), D-dimer, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels with serious non-AIDS conditions or death in 3 large cohorts. Methods: In HIV-positive adults on suppressive ART, associations of IL-6, D-dimer, and hsCRP levels at study entry with serious non-AIDS conditions or death were studied using Cox regression. Hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for age, gender, study, and regression dilution bias (due to within-person biomarker variability) were used to predict risk reductions in serious non-AIDS conditions or death associated with lower “usual” levels of IL-6 and D-dimer. Results: Over 4.9 years of mean follow-up, 260 of the 3766 participants experienced serious non-AIDS conditions or death. IL-6, D-dimer and hsCRP were each individually associated with risk of serious non-AIDS conditions or death, HR = 1.45 (95% CI: 1.30 to 1.63), 1.28 (95% CI: 1.14 to 1.44), and 1.17 (95% CI: 1.09 to 1.26) per 2x higher biomarker levels, respectively. In joint models, IL-6 and D-dimer were independently associated with serious non-AIDS conditions or death, with consistent results across the 3 cohorts and across serious non-AIDS event types. The association of IL-6 and D-dimer with serious non-AIDS conditions or death was graded and persisted throughout follow-up. For 25% lower “usual” IL-6 and D-dimer levels, the joint biomarker model estimates a 37% reduction (95% CI: 28 to 46%) in the risk of serious non-AIDS conditions or death if the relationship is causal. Conclusions: Both IL-6 and D-dimer are independently associated with serious non-AIDS conditions or death among HIV-positive adults with suppressed virus. This suggests that treatments that reduce IL-6 and D-dimer levels might substantially decrease morbidity and mortality in patients on suppressive ART. Clinical trials are needed to test this hypothesis

The per-protocol effect of immediate versus deferred antiretroviral therapy initiation

OBJECTIVE: The START trial found a lower risk of a composite clinical outcome in HIV-positive individuals assigned to immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) compared with those assigned to deferred initiation. However, 30% of those assigned to deferred initiation started ART earlier than the protocol specified. To supplement the published intention-to-treat effect estimates, here we estimate the per-protocol effect of immediate versus deferred ART initiation in START. DESIGN: The START trial randomized 4685 HIV-positive participants with CD4 counts > 500 /mm to start ART immediately after randomization (immediate initiation group) or to wait until the CD4 count dropped below 350 cells/mm or an AIDS diagnosis (deferred initiation group). METHODS: We used the parametric g-formula to estimate and compare the cumulative 5-year risk of the composite clinical outcome in the immediate and deferred initiation groups had all the trial participants adhered to the protocol. RESULTS: We estimated that the 5-year risk of the composite outcome would have been 3.2% under immediate ART initiation and 7.0% under deferred initiation. The difference of 3.8% (95% confidence interval 1.5,6.5) was larger than the intention-to-treat effect estimate of 3.1%, corresponding to a difference in effect estimates of 0.72% (-0.35,2.35). CONCLUSIONS: The intention-to-treat effect estimate may underestimate the benefit of immediate ART initiation by 23%. This estimate can be used by patients and policy makers who need to understand the full extent of the benefit of changes in ART initiation policies

Interleukin 6 Is a Stronger Predictor of Clinical Events Than High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein or D-Dimer During HIV Infection

BACKGROUND: Interleukin 6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and D-dimer levels are linked to adverse outcomes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, but the strength of their associations with different clinical end points warrants investigation. METHODS: Participants receiving standard of care in 2 HIV trials with measured biomarker levels were followed to ascertain all-cause death, non–AIDS-related death, AIDS, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and non–AIDS-defining malignancies. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of each end point for quartiles and log2-transformed IL-6, hsCRP, and D-dimer levels were calculated using Cox models. Marginal models modelling multiple events tested for equal effects of biomarker levels on different end points. RESULTS: Among 4304 participants, there were 157 all-cause deaths, 117 non–AIDS-related deaths, 101 AIDS cases, 121 CVD cases, and 99 non–AIDS-defining malignancies. IL-6 was more strongly associated with most end points, compared with hsCRP. IL-6 appeared to be a stronger predictor than D-dimer for CVD and non–AIDS-defining malignancies, but 95% CIs overlapped. Independent associations of IL-6 were stronger for non–AIDS-related death (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.43–2.04) and all-cause death (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.33–1.84) and similar for CVD (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.12–1.62) and non–AIDS-defining malignancies (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.06–1.61). There was heterogeneity of IL-6 (P < .001) but not hsCRP (P = .15) or D-dimer (P = .20) as a predictor for different end points. CONCLUSIONS: IL-6 is a stronger predictor of fatal events than of CVD and non–AIDS-defining malignancies. Adjuvant antiinflammatory and antithrombotic therapies should be tested in HIV-infected individuals

Cholesterol and the risk of grade-specific prostate cancer incidence: evidence from two large prospective cohort studies with up to 37 years' follow up

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt; High cholesterol may be a modifiable risk factor for prostate cancer but results have been inconsistent and subject to potential "reverse causality" where undetected disease modifies cholesterol prior to diagnosis.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; We conducted a prospective cohort study of 12,926 men who were enrolled in the Midspan studies between 1970 and 1976 and followed up to 31st December 2007. We used Cox-Proportional Hazards Models to evaluate the association between baseline plasma cholesterol and Gleason grade-specific prostate cancer incidence. We excluded cancers detected within at least 5 years of cholesterol assay.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; 650 men developed prostate cancer in up to 37 years' follow-up. Baseline plasma cholesterol was positively associated with hazard of high grade (Gleason score[greater than or equal to]8) prostate cancer incidence (n=119). The association was greatest among men in the 4th highest quintile for cholesterol, 6.1 to &#60;6.69 mmol/l, Hazard Ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.27 to 4.10, compared with the baseline of &#60;5.05 mmol/l. This association remained significant after adjustment for body mass index, smoking and socioeconomic status.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusions&lt;/b&gt; Men with higher cholesterol are at greater risk of developing high-grade prostate cancer but not overall risk of prostate cancer. Interventions to minimise metabolic risk factors may have a role in reducing incidence of aggressive prostate cancer

Association of Suboptimal Antiretroviral Therapy Adherence With Inflammation in Virologically Suppressed Individuals Enrolled in the SMART Study

Suboptimal (ie, <100%) antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence has been associated with heightened inflammation in cohort studies, even among people with virologic suppression. We aimed to evaluate this association among participants in the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) study who had virologic suppression (HIV-1 VL < 200 copies/mL) at enrollment. Based on self-reported adherence (7-day recall), plasma concentrations of interleukin 6 and D-dimer were 9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1%-18%; P = .02) and 11% (95% CI, 1%-22%; P = .03) higher in participants who reported suboptimal vs 100% adherence, respectively. These findings confirm previous observations and support the hypothesis that suboptimal ART adherence, even in the context of virologic suppression, may have significant biological consequences. ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00027352

Comparison of an ordinal endpoint to time-to-event, longitudinal, and binary endpoints for use in evaluating treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization

Background/aims: The Food and Drug Administration recommends research into developing well-defined and reliable endpoints to evaluate treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization. A novel 6-category ordinal endpoint of patient health status after 7 days that ranges from death to hospital discharge with resumption of normal activities is being used in a randomized placebo-controlled trial of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) for severe influenza (FLU-IVIG). We compare the power of the ordinal endpoint under a proportional odds model to other types of endpoints as a function of various trial parameters. // Methods: We used closed-form analysis and empirical simulation to compare the power of the ordinal endpoint to time-to-event, longitudinal, and binary endpoints. In the simulation setting, we varied the treatment effect and the distribution of the placebo group across the follow-up period with consideration of adjustment for baseline health status. // Results: In the analytic setting, ordinal endpoints of high granularity provided greater power than time-to-event endpoints when most patients in the placebo group had either naturally progressed to the category of hospital discharge by day 7 or were far from hospital discharge on day 7. In the simulation setting, adjustment for baseline health status universally raised power for the proportional odds model. Across different placebo group distributions of the ordinal endpoint regardless of adjustment for baseline health status, only time-to-event endpoints yielded higher power than the ordinal endpoint for certain treatment effects. // Conclusions: In this case study, the FLU-IVIG ordinal endpoint provided greater power than time-to-event, binary, and longitudinal endpoints for most scenarios of the treatment effect and placebo group distribution, including the target population studied for FLU-IVIG. The ordinal endpoint was only surpassed by the time-to-event endpoint when many patients in the placebo group were on the cusp of hospital discharge on day 7 and the follow-up period for the time-to-event endpoint was extended to allow for additional events. Our general approach for evaluating the power of several potential endpoints for an influenza trial can be used for designing other influenza trials with different target populations and for other trials in other disease areas

Human immunotypes impose selection on viral genotypes through viral epitope specificity

BACKGROUND: Understanding the genetic interplay between human hosts and infectious pathogens is crucial for how we interpret virulence factors. Here, we tested for associations between HIV and host genetics, and interactive genetic effects on viral load (VL) in HIV+ ART-naive clinical trial participants. METHODS: HIV genomes were sequenced and the encoded amino acid (AA) variants were associated with VL, human single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and imputed HLA alleles, using generalized linear models with Bonferroni correction. RESULTS: Human (388,501 SNPs) and HIV (3,010 variants) genetic data was available for 2,122 persons. Four HIV variants were associated with VL (p-values<1.66×10 -5). Twelve HIV variants were associated with a range of 1-512 human SNPs (p-value<4.28×10 -11). We found 46 associations between HLA alleles and HIV variants (p-values<1.29×10 -7). We found HIV variants and immunotypes when analyzed separately, were associated with lower VL, whereas the opposite was true when analyzed in concert. Epitope binding prediction showed HLA alleles to be weaker binders of associated HIV AA variants relative to alternative variants on the same position. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show the importance of immunotype specificity on viral antigenic determinants, and the identified genetic interplay puts emphasis that viral and human genetics should be studied in the context of each other

Baseline cardiovascular risk in the INSIGHT Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial: Baseline CVD in START

The Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial has recruited antiretroviral-naïve individuals with high CD4 cell counts from all world regions. We describe the distribution of cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors, overall and by geographic region, at study baseline

Incomplete ART adherence is associated with higher inflammation in individuals who achieved virologic suppression in the START study

INTRODUCTION: Suboptimal ART adherence, despite HIV viral suppression, has been associated with chronic residual inflammation. Whether this association extends to individuals who initiate ART during early HIV infection remains unknown, which was the objective of this study. METHODS: Plasma levels of interleukin‐6 (IL‐6), high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein, serum amyloid A protein (SAA), IL‐27, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule‐1, soluble vascular adhesion molecule‐1, D‐dimer and the CD4+/CD8+ T‐cell ratio, were analysed at baseline and eight months after ART initiation in treatment‐naïve participants with HIV and CD4+ T‐cells >500 cells/mm^{3} enrolled in the immediate arm of START. Adherence was assessed by seven‐day self‐report. Multivariable linear regression was utilized to analyse the association between ART adherence and each biomarker at the eight‐month visit in participants who achieved virologic suppression (<50 copies/mL). RESULTS: We evaluated 1627 participants (422 female) who achieved virologic suppression at the eight‐month visit in the period between 2009 and 2013. Median (IQR) CD4+ T‐cell count before ART was 651 (585, 769) cells/mm^{3}. Incomplete adherence was reported in 109 (7%) participants at the eight month visit. After adjusting for covariates, plasma IL‐6 was 1.12 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.26; p = 0.047) fold higher in participants reporting incomplete versus 100% adherence. A similar association for SAA was observed in an exploratory analysis (1.29 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.60); p = 0.02). No significant differences in other biomarkers were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Incomplete ART adherence was associated with higher IL‐6 levels in individuals who achieved virologic suppression early after ART initiation in START. A potential similar association for SAA requires confirmation. These findings suggest a role for identifying strategies to maximize ART adherence even during virologic suppression. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00867048

Design and implementation of an international, multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol for trials of novel SARS-CoV-2 antiviral agents: Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 (TICO/ACTIV-3)

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Safe and effective therapies for COVID-19 are urgently needed. In order to meet this need, the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines public-private partnership initiated the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 is a multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol, which facilitates the rapid evaluation of the safety and efficacy of novel candidate antiviral therapeutic agents for adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Five agents have so far entered the protocol, with rapid answers already provided for three of these. Other agents are expected to enter the protocol throughout 2021. This protocol contains a number of key design and implementation features that, along with challenges faced by the protocol team, are presented and discussed. METHODS: Three clinical trial networks, encompassing a global network of clinical sites, participated in the protocol development and implementation. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 utilizes a multi-arm, multi-stage design with an agile and robust approach to futility and safety evaluation at 300 patients enrolled, with subsequent expansion to full sample size and an expanded target population if the agent shows an acceptable safety profile and evidence of efficacy. Rapid recruitment to multiple agents is enabled through the sharing of placebo, the confining of agent-specific information to protocol appendices, and modular consent forms. In collaboration with the Food and Drug Administration, a thorough safety data collection and Data and Safety Monitoring Board schedule was developed for the study of potential therapeutic agents with limited in-human data in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: As of 8 August 2021, five agents have entered the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 master protocol and a total of 1909 participants have been randomized to one of these agents or matching placebo. There were a number of challenges faced by the study team that needed to be overcome in order to successfully implement Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 across a global network of sites. These included ensuring drug supply and reliable recruitment allowing for changing infection rates across the global network of sites, the need to balance the collection of data and samples without overburdening clinical staff and obtaining regulatory approvals across a global network of sites. CONCLUSION: Through a robust multi-network partnership, the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 protocol has been successfully used across a global network of sites for rapid generation of efficacy data on multiple novel antiviral agents. The protocol design and implementation features used in this protocol, and the approaches to address challenges, will have broader applicability. Mechanisms to facilitate improved communication and harmonization among country-specific regulatory bodies are required to achieve the full potential of this approach in dealing with a global outbreak