Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle

Targeting Antibiotics to Households for Trachoma Control

Repeated ocular infection with the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis leads to the development of trachoma, a major cause of infectious blindness worldwide. Mass distribution of antibiotics, a component of the current trachoma control strategy, has had success in reducing infection in some areas, but results in a large number of uninfected people receiving antibiotics. We have previously shown that transmission of the bacteria between people in the same household is very efficient. Here, we investigated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of targeting antibiotics to households with active trachoma (inflammatory disease) compared to mass distribution, using data from four trachoma-endemic populations and a mathematical model of transmission. We found a high correspondence between households with active trachoma and infected households. In all populations the household targeted approach was predicted to be as effective as mass distribution, but it reduced the number of uninfected individuals receiving antibiotics, making the targeted strategy more cost-effective when antibiotics are not donated. Assuming antibiotics are donated, we predicted the targeted strategy to be more cost effective if it increases the proportion of infected individuals receiving treatment. Further work to address the feasibility and the cost variability in implementing the targeted approach in different settings is now required

Changing presentation of prostate cancer in a UK population--10 year trends in prostate cancer risk profiles in the East of England.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer incidence is rising in the United Kingdom but there is little data on whether the disease profile is changing. To address this, we interrogated a regional cancer registry for temporal changes in presenting disease characteristics. METHODS: Prostate cancers diagnosed from 2000 to 2010 in the Anglian Cancer Network (n=21,044) were analysed. Risk groups (localised disease) were assigned based on NICE criteria. Age standardised incidence rates (IRs) were compared between 2000-2005 and 2006-2010 and plotted for yearly trends. RESULTS: Over the decade, overall IR increased significantly (P<0.00001), whereas metastasis rates fell (P<0.0007). For localised disease, IR across all risk groups also increased but at different rates (P<0.00001). The most striking change was a three-fold increase in intermediate-risk cancers. Increased IR was evident across all PSA and stage ranges but with no upward PSA or stage shift. In contrast, IR of histological diagnosis of low-grade cancers fell over the decade, whereas intermediate and high-grade diagnosis increased significantly (P<0.00001). CONCLUSION: This study suggests evidence of a significant upward migration in intermediate and high-grade histological diagnosis over the decade. This is most likely to be due to a change in histological reporting of diagnostic prostate biopsies. On the basis of this data, increasing proportions of newly diagnosed cancers will be considered eligible for radical treatment, which will have an impact on health resource planning and provision

Search for time-dependent B0s - B0s-bar oscillations using a vertex charge dipole technique

We report a search for B0s - B0s-bar oscillations using a sample of 400,000 hadronic Z0 decays collected by the SLD experiment. The analysis takes advantage of the electron beam polarization as well as information from the hemisphere opposite that of the reconstructed B decay to tag the B production flavor. The excellent resolution provided by the pixel CCD vertex detector is exploited to cleanly reconstruct both B and cascade D decay vertices, and tag the B decay flavor from the charge difference between them. We exclude the following values of the B0s - B0s-bar oscillation frequency: Delta m_s < 4.9 ps-1 and 7.9 < Delta m_s < 10.3 ps-1 at the 95% confidence level.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, replaced by version accepted for publication in Phys.Rev.D; results differ slightly from first versio

British Torture in the 'War on Terror'

Despite longstanding allegations of UK involvement in prisoner abuse during counterterrorism operations as part of the US-led ‘war on terror’, a consistent narrative emanating from British government officials is that Britain neither uses, condones nor facilitates torture or other cruel, inhuman, degrading treatment and punishment. We argue that such denials are untenable. We have established beyond reasonable doubt that Britain has been deeply involved in post-9/11 prisoner abuse, and we can now provide the most detailed account to date of the depth of this involvement. We argue that it is possible to identify a peculiarly British approach to torture in the ‘war on terror’, which is particularly well-suited to sustaining a narrative of denial. To explain the nature of UK involvement, we argue that it can be best understood within the context of how law and sovereign power have come to operate during the ‘war on terror’. We turn here to the work of Judith Butler, and explore the role of Britain as a ‘petty sovereign’, operating under the state of exception established by the US Executive. UK authorities have not themselves suspended the rule of law so overtly, and indeed have repeatedly insisted on their commitment to it. They have nevertheless been able to construct a rhetorical, legal and policy ‘scaffold’ that has enabled them to demonstrate at least procedural adherence to human rights norms, while at the same time allowing UK officials to acquiesce in the arbitrary exercise of sovereignty over individuals who are denied any access to appropriate representation or redress in compliance with the rule of law

Profound and Sustained Reduction in Chlamydia trachomatis in The Gambia: A Five-Year Longitudinal Study of Trachoma Endemic Communities

Trachoma is the most common infectious cause of blindness worldwide. Mass antibiotic treatment with azithromycin is used to control ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection. There is uncertainty over how frequently and for how long treatment is needed, particularly in low prevalence settings. This study examines the effect of a single round of treatment on clinical disease and infection in a cluster of trachoma endemic Gambian villages over a five-year period. These villages had good water supplies and sanitation improved part way through the study. We found treatment was followed by a marked decline in infection prevalence (by PCR) to less than 1%. The decline in prevalence of active disease in children was less marked. Several villages had a prevalence of active trachoma in 1 to 9 year old children of greater than 10% during the follow-up period, mostly in the absence of detectable infection. The implication of this study is that a single, high coverage mass treatment may be sufficient to control C. trachomatis infection in a low prevalence setting, particularly when combined with environmental measures to limit transmission. However, relying on clinical signs to guide treatment decisions is likely to lead to significant amounts of over treatment where current guidelines are implemented

The feasibility and results of a population-based approach to evaluating prostate-specific antigen screening for prostate cancer in men with a raised familial risk

The feasibility of a population-based evaluation of screening for prostate cancer in men with a raised familial risk was investigated by studying reasons for non-participation and uptake rates according to postal recruitment and clinic contact. The levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the positive predictive values (PPV) for cancer in men referred with a raised PSA and in those biopsied were analysed. First-degree male relatives (FDRs) were identified through index cases (ICs): patients living in two regions of England and diagnosed with prostate cancer at age ⩽65 years from 1998 to 2004. First-degree relatives were eligible if they were aged 45–69 years, living in the UK and had no prior diagnosis of prostate cancer. Postal recruitment was low (45 of 1687 ICs agreed to their FDR being contacted: 2.7%) but this was partly due to ICs not having eligible FDRs. A third of ICs in clinic had eligible FDRs and 49% (192 out of 389) agreed to their FDR(s) being contacted. Of 220 eligible FDRs who initially consented, 170 (77.3%) had a new PSA test taken and 32 (14.5%) provided a previous PSA result. Among the 170 PSA tests, 10% (17) were ⩾4 ng ml−1 and 13.5% (23) tests above the age-related cutoffs. In 21 men referred, five were diagnosed with prostate cancer (PPV 24%; 95% CI 8, 47). To study further the effects of screening, patients with a raised familial risk should be counselled in clinic about screening of relatives and data routinely recorded so that the effects of screening on high-risk groups can be studied

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal