Is devaluation contractionary? empirical evidence for Pakistan

The paper investigates the effect of real devaluation on economic growth. In the empirical model we also include other theoretically justified variables in the case of Pakistan, such as foreign remittances, money supply, and government spending. The paper implements the ADF method to test check the stationarity of the series; and the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to establish a long run relationship. The findings affirm cointegration among the series. Real devaluation exerts contractionary effect on economic growth. The results from variance decomposition and impulse response-function show unidirectional causality from foreign remittances to economic growth; and bidirectional causality between money supply and foreign remittances. Furthermore, money supply Granger causes government spending; while devaluation Granger causes economic growth, albeit, weakly. The results should help in formulating a comprehensive trade policy including the use of competitive devaluation as a tool to correct balance of payments problems.Devaluation, Contractionary, Cointegration

Macroeconomic Determinants of the Happiness of the Poor: A Case Study of Pakistan

There is not much research on welfare-economics from the perspective of human wellbeing (happiness). The main reason is that this is qualitative and subjective phenomena are not easily captured by measurement. In the present endeavour, the authors tried to capture it (happiness) from the opposite side of the poverty index. We employed the modified ARDL technique for long-run friendship between the happiness of the poor and some macroeconomic influencing factors; short-run dynamic behaviour is scrutinised through ECM. The findings about the happiness of the poor and its determinants show that the happiness of poor individuals is highly influenced by macroeconomics shocks prevailing in the economy. Economic growth or a rise in GDP per capita decreases the level of the happiness of the poor due to an upper-echelon phenomenon over a long span of time in Pakistan. Inflation influences the purchasing power of poor segments of population and definitely affects the happiness negatively for both the long-term and short-term. Enhancement in remittances seems to push happiness or welfare levels of the poor upward significantly. Increases in indirect taxes, especially sales taxes, are associated with low levels of happiness of poor individuals in a small developing economy like Pakistan. Trade-openness improves happiness rankings of poor segments of the population through direct and indirect channels. Finally, a low level of happiness is associated with low urbanisation over a short period of time

Hidden Subsidies

Many governments use price subsidisation (total costs less total revenues from user charges) to meet social protection objectives in lieu of, or in addition to, direct income transfers. Such subsidies may be perceived as influencing behaviour to further other socially desirable policies. For example, the price response induced by lowering the price of schooling will both lower the cost of living for the beneficiaries and also increase the investment in education more than a similar income transfer would achieve. The incidences of benefits from a general price subsidy are proportional to purchases and can be deduced from the pattern of expenditures. Some goods are inappropriate vehicles for redistribution since subsidies on them will not only accrue mainly to the rich they will actually increase inequality in welfare. It is therefore important to ensure that commodities chosen for price subsidisation are largely consumed by the lower income groups. Also, detailed data on such commodities should be made public to make the extent of subsidy easily tractable. In the case of Pakistan, the problem of lack of transparency of federal and provincial budgets is vividly demonstrated by the inability of such budgets to readily highlight the subsidy on the various economic and social services, which are essentially in the nature of ‘private’ goods, provided by such governments. This is not only a reflection of the problem of the nature of budgeting practices whereby, first, revenues and expenditures on different heads are shown separately and no account is made either of depreciation of assets or the costs of capital used to finance the acquisition of assets which yield a stream of services. Second, to the extent that the subsidies largely benefit the upper income groups, political compulsions dictate that such subsidies largely remain hidden.

Climate Change and Drought: Impact of Food Insecurity on Gender Based Vulnerability in District Tharparkar

Climate change has now become a reality that has intensified the sufferings of people living in arid ecosystems. Decrease in rainfall, rise in temperature and increase in the frequency of extreme events are some of the changes observed in the semi-arid desert of district Tharparkar. For thousands of years, people of Tharparkar are coping with drought and aridity of the land by using indigenous knowledge. However, global changes in the climatic pattern and deterioration of social and economic conditions have pushed the inhabitants of this arid region into extreme vulnerable situation. This paper investigates the link between climate-induced natural disasters, particularly drought, from the perspective of changing climate patterns which have resulted in food insecurity and water scarcity. The paper analyses the rainfall pattern in the last 38 years—dividing it into two periods i.e. from 1975-1994 and 1995-2014. The findings of the paper have challenged the prevailing notions about aridity and rainfall patterns in Tharparkar district. The research found that there is an increase in average annual precipitation in the district with erratic patterns. Thus, the nature of drought in the district has changed from its historic pattern of less or no rainfall to more but erratic rainfall that is more threatening to livelihoods of the people that in turn have multiplier effect on water and food insecurity. In particularly, women are more vulnerable in the absence of social security and lack of basic necessities for their survival amidst drought. For instance, traditionally the burden of managing water resources falls on women, which leads to an increased work load during the time of drought and also water scarcity. JEL Classification: Q54, Q56, Q25, I30 Keywords: Climate, Environment and Development, Drought, Water, Povert

Rural-Urban Income Inequality under Financial Development and Trade Openness in Pakistan: The Econometric Evidence

Pakistan is a developing economy, which has adopted Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in the form of economic reforms initiated in early 1990s. Economic reforms related to privatisation of state-owned assets, deregulation, confiscation of price controls, trade liberalisation generally and financial reforms (especially to improve quality of financial institutions) particularly. The objective of such reforms was to improve the welfare of society but these reforms never fruited to every livelihood in the country. Perhaps, fruits of economic reforms are eaten up by poor governance, lack of transparency in economic policies, high level of corruption, high burden of internal and external debts and interest rate payments on these debts, weak situation of law and order, and improper implementation of economic policies

Hidden Subsidies

Many governments use price subsidisation (total costs less total revenues from user charges) to meet social protection objectives in lieu of, or in addition to, direct income transfers. Such subsidies may be perceived as influencing behaviour to further other socially desirable policies. For example, the price response induced by lowering the price of schooling will both lower the cost of living for the beneficiaries and also increase the investment in education more than a similar income transfer would achieve. The incidences of benefits from a general price subsidy are proportional to purchases and can be deduced from the pattern of expenditures. Some goods are inappropriate vehicles for redistribution since subsidies on them will not only accrue mainly to the rich they will actually increase inequality in welfare. It is therefore important to ensure that commodities chosen for price subsidisation are largely consumed by the lower income groups. Also, detailed data on such commodities should be made public to make the extent of subsidy easily tractable

Is devaluation contractionary? empirical evidence for Pakistan

The paper investigates the effect of real devaluation on economic growth. In the empirical model we also include other theoretically justified variables in the case of Pakistan, such as foreign remittances, money supply, and government spending. The paper implements the ADF method to test check the stationarity of the series; and the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to establish a long run relationship. The findings affirm cointegration among the series. Real devaluation exerts contractionary effect on economic growth. The results from variance decomposition and impulse response-function show unidirectional causality from foreign remittances to economic growth; and bidirectional causality between money supply and foreign remittances. Furthermore, money supply Granger causes government spending; while devaluation Granger causes economic growth, albeit, weakly. The results should help in formulating a comprehensive trade policy including the use of competitive devaluation as a tool to correct balance of payments problems

Comparison of Histoacryl® plus Lipiodol® versus Histoacryl® plus vitamin D3 in the management of isolated fundal varices: A retrospective comparative study

Objective: According to recent guidelines Histoacryl® (N-butyl-2 -Cyanoacrylate) injection is the first line therapy for the endoscopic obliteration of gastric varices. Lipiodol is commonly used to facilitate injection Histoacryl® but it is expensive. In this study we compare Lipiodol with Vitamin D3 injection as priming agents for Histoacryl injection in terms of efficacy and safety in the management of isolated fundal varices. Methods: This is a retrospective comparative study conducted at Gastroenterology Unit, Lady Reading hospital Peshawar. Patients’ information was collected from March, 2012 to January, 2020 from medical records and statistically analyzed in terms of fundal varices obliteration, re-bleeding, mortality, and adverse events related to treatment. Results: From March, 2012 to January, 2020, 171 patients met the criteria. 7 cases lost follow up, and all the cases in both groups were treated successfully. There were no adverse events related to procedure in either group. Twenty six patients developed upper GI re-bleeding, which did not differ significantly betweenthe twogroups. There was also no difference between the groups in terms of treatment failure, complications, varices obliteration, and mortality. Conclusion: Vitamin D3 is as safe and effective as Lipoidol when used as priming agent for Histoacryl injection for obliteration of isolated fundal varices and can be used as a cheaper alternative to Lipoidol

Exploring The Influence Of Vitamin D In The Management Of Acne Vulgaris: A Pilot Study

Abstract Objective: The study aimed to explore the potential benefits of vitamin D supplementation in improving acne severity. Methods: This pilot study was carried out at HIT Hospital, Taxila. The study included nine female patients aged between 12 and 30 years, with acne vulgaris and having deficient serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25(OH)D) levels (<30 nmol/L). Exclusion criteria included the use of topical or oral treatments for acne, including retinoids, as well as those with a history of multivitamin or systemic steroid intake, and patients with any chronic disease. Global Acne Grading (GAG) score was used to assess the severity of acne vulgaris. Patients received a daily dosage of 1000 IU of vitamin D drops per day for 2 months so that vitamin D deficiency is corrected. After 2 months, the GAG score was re-calculated and documented. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 28. Results: The mean age of the study participants was 18.33 years (SD= 3.3 Years). A statistically insignificant association (p=0.49) and weak positive correlation (r= 0.17, p=0.65) were observed between Vit D levels and acne Status and GAG-1 score on applying chi-square test and Pearson correlation respectively. A paired-sample t-test showed a significant difference in the GAG-1 Score (Mean=25.44, SD=7.6) and GAG-2 Score (M=15.1, SD=4.5) after Vit D supplementation. t (5.3), (p= 0.001). Conclusion: The results suggest that correcting vitamin D deficiency through supplementation resulted in a significant improvement in acne severity.