Closing the motor vehicle industry - the impact on Australia

The Australian Workplace Innovation and Social Research Centre (WISeR) commissioned a study by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) to assess the impact of the closure of the motor vehicle industry in Australia following announcements by General Motors Holden (GMH), Ford and Toyota that they will be ceasing production in the country. &nbsp

Macroeconomic impact from extending working lives (WP95)

This report presents findings from research, conducted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and funded by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). NIESR were commissioned to use their global econometric model, NiGEM, in order to model various scenarios involving extending working lives, and to quantify the macroeconomic effects therein. The core scenario is a one year increase in working life for the UK population that is gradually phased in over the period 2010-14. In addition to this, NIESR carried out a series of counterfactual analyses which modelled the loss to the economy from older people leaving the labour market early

In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy

This paper describes and evaluates measures of trend (or potential) output in order to improve the measuring and understanding of the current state of the Swedish economy. The target group of the paper is primarily policy makers and analysts in Sweden and international organisations who study the Swedish economy and give recommendations concerning appropriate stabilization policies. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the ones of neither the National Institute of Economic Research nor the Ministry of Finance.

KIMOD 1.0 Documentation of NIER´s Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Model of the Swedish Economy

KIMOD 1.0 is an annual large-scale macroeconomic model2 of the Swedish economy and is the result of a project that started in 2002 at the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) in Sweden. In 2003, the model was used for the first time in policy analysis (see NIER, 2003) and from 2004 onwards it has also been applied for forecasting purposes. In November 2005, the time had come to document the first official version of the model, KIMOD 1.0. This document is a resulting part of the documentation project.

The Effective Exchange Rate Index KIX - Theory and Practice

The world trade patterns have changed over the recent years, and for Sweden many important trading partners have emerged. The National Institute of Economic Research has therefore compiled a new effective exchange rate of index for the Swedish krona, KIX. KIX is a chain-linked index that includes the currencies of 32 countries. The weight attached to each country is based on the patterns of international trade in manufactured goods and commodities. The index includes a number of emerging economies and gives in this way a more adequate definition of the effective exchange rate of the krona than the traditional indices. Furthermore, it allows for the changes in relative importance of Sweden´s trading partners. The calculation of KIX is now documented in a Working Paper: The Effective Exchange Rate Index KIX - Theory and Practise.

The European economy in 1998 and 1999

World economic activity remains relatively robust, although the Asian crisis casts a shadow over the picture. The rate of growth of world trade has slowed down since last fall, but is expected to remain above its trend level. International price developments remain quite moderate. Oil prices have declined substantially, and are among the lowest of the decade. Inflationary pressures are also limited in the industrial countries, as capacity constraints are not yet significant there and excess supply has materialized worldwide. The industrial countries show a sustained growth rate between 2Vi and 3 per cent on average. However, the combination of strong growth and low inflation is the result of divergent developments between countries. • The US economy has been until recently particularly buoyant, as strong domestic demand has more than offset the dampening effect of falling exports to Asia. The Japanese economy remains in the doldrums. The threat of a deflation has recently prompted a substantial stimulation programme aiming at preventing a further deterioration of confidence. \^ Economic growth in Asia has been-severely_ restricted, in particular in the ASEAN countries and Korea, although extensive rescue operations have brought the situation in the worst hit countries more or less under control. The impact on the European countries is as yet rather limited, as negative trade effects are largely compensated for by beneficial effects of lower imported inflation and lower interest rates. Thus Western Europe is in a position to sustain the recovery that began in mid-1996. Prospects have been strengthened as uncertainties associated with the implementation of the EMU have now been dissipated. The time has now come to begin to view the EMU countries as a single entity from the viewpoint of economic management, even if differences persist in many fields. --

The European economy in 1999 and 2000: Report

World economic growth this year is likely to remain as weak as in 1998, despite a gradual acceleration in the course of the year. The volume of world trade is estimated to have fallen significantly in the latter half of last year, and to date there are few signs of a rapid recovery. However, there are indications of improved investor sentiment in a number of emerging market economies, and the monetary authorities in many industrial economies have lowered shortterm interest rates significantly since last autumn. In the absence of further financial market turmoil, a modest global recovery is expected to develop this year, led by improved prospects for the Asian economies. World GDP is expected to rise by 3 per cent in 2000, after growth of 2V4 per cent this year (Table 1). The industrial economies as a group are not expected to contribute significantly to the overall rebound. The economy of the United States has remained much stronger than expected, but could experience a soft landing next year, particularly if the Federal Reserve decides to tighten monetary policy. Activity in Japan may at best stabilise next year after two years of declining GDP, with many firms continuing to have excess capacity, and domestic demand expected to remain weak. The continuing weakness of Japan will help to keep the upturn in the emerging markets within bounds. Growth should pick up in Western Europe over the next eighteen months, helped by the present relaxed monetary conditions. However, a recovery this year remains far from assured, with activity likely to be particularly weak in Germany and Italy. The present, historically low, rate of inflation in the industrial world may rise slightly, partly as a result of some recovery in world prices for primary commodities, recently in particular for oil. In the euro area, import prices will also rise as a result of the recent depreciation of the euro against the dollar. The continued strength of the dollar can be partly attributed to the very strong performance of the American economy compared with the European economy, and to the rising interest rate differentials with Europe. We expect that developments in the opposite direction will weaken the dollar again. Section VI of this report illustrates a scenario with a more substantial weakening in the aftermath of a collapse in equity prices. The Western European economy has been strongly affected by the adverse developments in the crisis regions. This has depressed industrial production significantly over the past year. The prospects for Europe are heavily dependent on the timing and extent to which these effects fade away. The American economy has been a strong engine for world economic growth up to now, but there are several imbalances that may lead to a slowdown over the next eighteen months. This could have a substantial impact on the European economy. --

The European economy in 1998 and 1999: An update

A. Situation and Prospects for the European Economy 3 I. Slower Growth of the World Economy 3 II. Weaker Expansion of the European Economy 5 III. Economic Policy 7 B. Country Reports 9 I. Germany: Upturn Continues Despite Financial Turbulence 9 II. Confidence Still High in France, Though Off Its Peak 9 III. Downturn in the UK Economy 10 IV. Italy: A Fragile Recovery 11 --

Five minutes with Jonathan Portes: “Policy-makers need to be much more open about the benefits of immigration”

The right to free movement is one of the founding principles of the European Union, however it has also been a source of controversy, particularly among Eurosceptic parties across Europe. In an interview with EUROPP’s editor Stuart Brown, Jonathan Portes, Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, discusses the economic costs and benefits of free movement and why policy-makers should be more open about the potential gains from immigration

Awareness and knowledge of institutional bursaries and scholarships among the parents of higher education students In England

This report is based on a survey of Higher Education Institutions (HEI), commissioned by the Office for Fair Access (OFFA), and undertaken by Professor Claire Callender of Birkbeck University of London, and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. It forms part of a larger programme of research conducted for OFFA, which aimed to explore the awareness and take-up of institutional bursaries and scholarships in England among undergraduate full-time students, their parents, and HE advisors in schools and colleges