Laminations and groups of homeomorphisms of the circle

If M is an atoroidal 3-manifold with a taut foliation, Thurston showed that pi_1(M) acts on a circle. Here, we show that some other classes of essential laminations also give rise to actions on circles. In particular, we show this for tight essential laminations with solid torus guts. We also show that pseudo-Anosov flows induce actions on circles. In all cases, these actions can be made into faithful ones, so pi_1(M) is isomorphic to a subgroup of Homeo(S^1). In addition, we show that the fundamental group of the Weeks manifold has no faithful action on S^1. As a corollary, the Weeks manifold does not admit a tight essential lamination, a pseudo-Anosov flow, or a taut foliation. Finally, we give a proof of Thurston's universal circle theorem for taut foliations based on a new, purely topological, proof of the Leaf Pocket Theorem.Comment: 50 pages, 12 figures. Ver 2: minor improvement

Measuring Risk: Political Risk Insurance Premiums and Domestic Political Institutions.

There is a renewed interest in political science on how political risk affects multinational corporations operating in emerging markets. Most existing studies suffer from data problems where researchers can only offer indirect evidence of the relationship between political institutions and political risk. In this paper I utilize a new data resource to explore how domestic institutions affect political risks for multinationals. Utilizing price data from political risk insurance agencies I test how domestic political institutions affect the premiums multinationals pay for coverage against 1) expropriations and contract disputes and 2) government restrictions on capital transactions. I find that constraints on politicians lead to marginally lower expropriation and transfer risks. Democracy, on the other hand, greatly reduces expropriation risk but has no impact on transfer risk.FDI, political risk, expropriation, insurance

Discussion of: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?

Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?" by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [arXiv:1104.4002]Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS398G the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org